Most likely map for a Trump win at this point?

[uti2]

Romney states + OH, PA, and FL (and maybe IA) seems like the only plausible Trump win. I'm not seeing any hope for him in NV, CO, WI, or NH.

Pretty much this. I could maybe see Virginia flip as well but it's unlikely.

That's what I mentioned for his core map. That being said, considering weaknesses intrinsic to Hillary, she's at risk in NV, CO, and NH a la Gore. She shouldn't assume that left leaning independents will necessarily vote for her, she actually has to campaign for them, if she doesn't, she might make the same mistakes that Gore did.

[Xing]

^I don't think the "celebrity effect" would be enough to offset Trump's weaknesses among Latinos in Nevada. For similar reasons, I don't see him doing well in Colorado. New Hampshire voters seem too well educated to vote for Trump.

[uti2]

^I don't think the "celebrity effect" would be enough to offset Trump's weaknesses among Latinos in Nevada. For similar reasons, I don't see him doing well in Colorado. New Hampshire voters seem too well educated to vote for Trump.

Were NH voters too educated for Bush? That's my point.

As for NV, it has a lot of non-mexican hispanics too, not as many as FL, but non-mexican hispanics are another category.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Trump (R) 272 EV
Clinton (D) 266 EV

I think that Trump MIGHT win Virginia as well.

[Ljube]

At this point, at any point in the past, at any point in the future - Romney + FL + OH + PA.

The small states don't matter and may go to Trump, some of them (IA, NV, CO, VA).

[Badger]

Trump (R) 272 EV
Clinton (D) 266 EV

I think that Trump MIGHT win Virginia as well.

This is about right, though I'd say there's a greater chance of flipping the results in NH and ME-2, which would lead to a 50/50 chance of President Trump or President Ryan.