Most likely map for a Trump win at this point?

[Senator Spark]

[Green Line]

Error.  Does not compute.

[uti2]

PA + NC + FL +OH is his only bet.

[Wisconsin+17]

Right now?

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire. 274-264.

71 percent of whites without a degree.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Florida is gone. His only road now is Minnesota, Michigan or Virginia. He is more likely at this point to win Michigan than he is Virginia or Florida.

[uti2]

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Florida is gone. His only road now is Minnesota.

Well, FL is more likely to flip than Minnesota.  Cubans =/ Mexicans.

[Wisconsin+17]

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His numbers with Hispanics are that bad. Florida is gone.

He's also winning the EC while losing by 2 percent of the vote.

Another possibility is a popular vote loss, EC win 314-224. That includes Oregon.

That's right, folks. Oregon is more likely to flip than Florida.

[uti2]

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His numbers with Hispanics are that bad. Florida is gone.

He's also winning the EC while losing by 2 percent of the vote.

Again Hispanics =/ Mexicans and Cubans =/ Mexicans. FL is still more likely than MN, that goes for any R candidate.

Only way he wins Minnesota is if he also wins the Pacific NW and New England, which would have to be in some sort of a landslide, like a terrorist attack just hit the country or something to that effect.

[Wisconsin+17]

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The numbers don't reflect that. It is quite possible to win Minnesota without winning Michigan, or anything in New England save New Hampshire.

[uti2]

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The numbers don't reflect that. It is quite possible to win Minnesota without winning Michigan, or anything in New England save New Hampshire.

The numbers also show OR and CT to be competitive. MN is the same category. That's my point.

[Wisconsin+17]

Actual map right now - 462-76. With LA flipping.

[Wisconsin+17]

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I don't know what you're smoking but CT is not competitive, neither is OR.

LA, MS, MT, AK, IN, MO, AZ, SC, GA and TX are competitive.

[uti2]

Actual map right now - 462-76. With LA flipping.

Realistically, the country is too polarized for that to happen. Even under an economic collapse occurring under a Republican president, a significant portion of the country still favored Mccain over Obama, and Obama was consistently polling better vs. Mccain than Hillary was. The base is the Mccain map +/- a few states, that goes for any R candidate.

[Wisconsin+17]

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That's with college educated whites flipping to 53 percent democrat. It is very much possible.

[uti2]

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That's with college educated whites flipping to 53 percent democrat. It is very much possible.

This is a guy who says that Cruz could easily win. What's different with Cruz?

[Wisconsin+17]

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Principled conservative who's not a racist?

[uti2]

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Principled conservative who's not a racist?

'College educated Whites', and minorities do not like 'principled conservatism' anymore than they like 'racism'.

[uti2]

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Principled conservative who's not a racist?

That's why Cruz was down -10 in the last CNN poll. Sure.

[Wisconsin+17]

Well, if Trump loses College educated Whites, he's losing outright. He can also lose 454-84, even if he wins college educated Whites (51-49), and takes home whites without a degree 59-41.

[Wisconsin+17]

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That's better than how Trump is doing right now. He's losing 60-38.

[uti2]

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That's better than how Trump is doing right now. He's losing 60-38.

No, Cruz and Trump were polling about the same vs. Hillary all-throughout 2015 (both around -5), Cruz only eclipsed Trump for a couple months following Trump's muslim ban remarks, then Cruz's numbers reverted to the mean and collapsed to similar margins as with Trump.

[SingingAnalyst]

Flip FL (barely), IA, NH, OH, WI for a 273-265 Trump victory (but a 49.3%-49.0% Clinton PV margin).

I tweaked 538.com's projections to give Trump 55% of college white vote, 70% of noncollege white vote and Clinton 77% of Hispanic and 71% of Asian vote. I also bumped up noncollege white and Hispanic turnout slightly. Under this scenario, Clinton wins PA by just 49.5% - 49.2%.

[Xing]

Romney states + OH, PA, and FL (and maybe IA) seems like the only plausible Trump win. I'm not seeing any hope for him in NV, CO, WI, or NH.

[uti2]

Romney states + OH, PA, and FL (and maybe IA) seems like the only plausible Trump win. I'm not seeing any hope for him in NV, CO, WI, or NH.

NV is possible because of the celebrity effect, and CO and NH are possible if Hillary fails to unite the left leaning independents a la Gore.

[Higgs]

Romney states + OH, PA, and FL (and maybe IA) seems like the only plausible Trump win. I'm not seeing any hope for him in NV, CO, WI, or NH.

Pretty much this. I could maybe see Virginia flip as well but it's unlikely.