Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

The old thread got pretty lengthy and the elections this year are now fought, which means it's time for a new thread.

There will be Presidential Elections in Austria next spring (probably in April) and - if necessary - a runoff 4 weeks later.

Other than that, the next 2.5 years are without a major election (just a few rather non-important municipal elections).

2018 will then have 4 state elections and of course the federal election (unless there are snap elections of course).

I'll keep you updated !

[Tender Branson]

The new ÖVP-FPÖ coalition in Upper Austria is official and was presented today.



The working agreement will have a strong FPÖ handwriting, especially when it comes to denying non-EU citizens benefits and housing access, mandatory German lessons for immigrants if they apply for public housing, more police presence, more spending on infrastructure and housing construction, tougher penalties for "integration unwillingness" (such as cutting or eliminating state child benefits for integration-unwilling foreigners), etc.

The ÖVP had to give in on these issues, because the FPÖ agreed to vote for the ÖVP's 4th cabinet post. The ÖVP would have received only 3 following their weak election results under the proporz-system - but the eventual cabinet posts are determined/voted on by the future coalition. Which means the SPÖ would have received 2 posts under proporz, but will now only get 1 cabinet post.

The new right-wing government of Upper Austria will have 0 women and 9 men, after 1 ÖVP-woman for a potential cabinet post was axed in a leadership vote yesterday.

http://orf.at/stories/2305477/2305478

[Tender Branson]

Carinthia will now definitely get rid of the Proporz-system and implement free coalition building & opposition after future state elections.

The state SPÖ-ÖVP-Green government has presented detailed plans for this today and will change the state constitution next year.

Proporz will be gone after the next state election in 2018.

That means only 2 states are left with Proporz after 2018: Upper- and Lower Austria, while Vienna has "Proporz in name only" (=> highly paid opposition people have some posts, but who have no governing power whatsoever. Basically a total waste of taxpayer money.)

http://derstandard.at/2000024364685/Bunte-Kaerntner-Koalition-aendert-die-Verfassung

[Tender Branson]

The new ÖVP-FPÖ government in Upper Austria was officially sworn in today.



Josef Pühringer (ÖVP) was re-elected Governor by 48 of the 56 state MPs (ÖVP+FPÖ have a total of 39 MPs, which means a few SPÖ/Green MPs have voted for him too).

...

Also, a new federal IMAS poll:



http://www.krone.at/Politik/Sonntagsfrage_FPOe_schon_klar_vor_SPOe_und_OeVP-Politik_inoffiziell-Story-478348

[Tender Branson]

One final map for the Vienna state election:

Party strength by precinct

(right-click for huge version)

[Tender Branson]

New IGF/SF poll for my home state of Salzburg (next state election in 2018):



http://www.salzburger-fenster.at/ic-orig/bibliothek/SF102015pdf.pdf

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is FPS a Salzburg-based FPO split?

Also  it's interesting how the OVP have held up steady while the RedGreens have fallen back; even while the beneficiary of post-2013 growth has been right-wing parties, like NEOS and FPO.

[Tender Branson]

Is FPS a Salzburg-based FPO split?

Yes. The FPS split from the FPÖ a few months ago, after former party leader Karl Schnell and several others got kicked out of the party by FPÖ-leader Strache (a lot of intrigues going on).

Schnell, who's still popular (mostly in the Pinzgau region, where I live) and fellow, loyal party members then created the FPS - which is currently in tough court battles with the FPÖ about party funding and naming rights etc.

I actually thought Schnell's splinter party would poll around 8-10% though and not just 4%. In the end, it's unlikely that the splinter party can survive in the next years because the FPÖ will try everything in court that they eventually end up broke and ineffective.

Also  it's interesting how the OVP have held up steady while the RedGreens have fallen back; even while the beneficiary of post-2013 growth has been right-wing parties, like NEOS and FPO.

Pretty easy to explain:

The ÖVP does well because of the "Governor-bonus" (Gov. Haslauer is currently the most popular politician in the state, as are some other ÖVP-politicians).

The Greens got a record 20% in 2013. They attracted many loan voters from the SPÖ, which was blamed most for the state's financial scandal during their governing term and they have since not recovered from that (which also has to do with their party leader, who once claimed that he cannot make ends meet with a 5000€ monthly salary, wich pissed off the SPÖ's base of retired people who earn just 900-1500€ a month). And of course the federal climate for the SPÖ is toxic too at the moment. Now the Greens are losing some of the loan voters (probably to the NEOS and ÖVP), because the Greens are overly pro-asylum seekers who are flooding the state and country.

The Team Stronach's fall of course can be explained with their federal downfall into non-existence. The fact that they still get 2% and not 0.5% can be explained with the good work that their Landesrat (= guy in the state government) is doing.

NEOS seems kinda high, but see => loan votes from Greens.

The FPÖ is not as strong in Sbg. as in Upper Austria and Vienna and is also hurt by the splinter.

KPÖ and Pirates share the remaining 1% in the poll.

[Tender Branson]

Here's the current overview of state governments and systems:



Vienna = in coalition talks (between SPÖ-Greens)

[Tender Branson]

New "Profil" magazine poll by Unique Research:

32% FPÖ (-1)
24% SPÖ (+1)
19% ÖVP (-2)
15% Greens (+1)
  7% NEOS (+1)
  3% Others (TS, KPÖ, Pirates, BZÖ, CPÖ, etc.)

Looks like the FPÖ has peaked at a high level, with the ÖVP dropping further and the Left consolidating its support.

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-fpoe-nummer-strache-fuehrt-kanzlerfrage-5966176

[Cranberry]

If this trend continues, maybe we could see ÖVP and Greens on par in a few years (let's hope so at least )

[Tender Branson]

Highly controversial FPÖ-MP Susanne Winter got in trouble once more for commenting favourably on an anti-semitic post by another Facebook user:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Winter could finally be kicked out of the FPÖ (or at least out of their parliamentary club).

http://derstandard.at/2000024868713/FPOe-prueft-antisemitisches-Winter-Posting

[Flocke]

Winter was expelled from the FPÖ. She claims another party in parliament has offered her to join them. Team Stronach denies that it was them.

Maybe the Greens want a climate change denier, a critical mind who challenges the party line (SCNR). 

Yesterday she gave a live interview to public ORF. Highlights:

Wolf (ORF):"You were convicted for hate incitement, call blacks Neger, who have low self confidence, because of their genes. You think we have to throw back Islam over the Mediterranean sea. Zionist money Jews are a worldwide problem to you. Climate change is an invention of the nuclear industry and the lie press. You liked nearly every existing conspiracy theory on Facebook, and claim we are all controlled by a totalitarian minority. Why do you think someone like you should  be in parliament"
Winter (Ex-FPÖ): "Mr. Wolf can I ask a counter question?"
Wolf: "It would be very nice if you could answer my questions."
Winter: "I will do that with my counter question. Because I simply have to explain a word, you used. Do you think the petrol price while rise, when the next summer holidays are coming? Or rise mightily?"
Wolf: "I don't see the connection to my question."
Wolf: "So why should someone who believes Zionist money Jews are a worldwide problem be in parliament?
Winter: "To come back to my last sentence. Probably the petrol price will rise. In that case you are a conspiracy theorist, because you believe it will rise."

Wolf: "If one reads your Facebook page, you are a Islam hating, racist conspiracy paranoiac. Why should you be in Parliament."
Winter: "That is your definition and summary of what you read. I would be very interested were you read things hostile to Islam? I would be very interested. Can you quote that?"
Wolf: "'Islam must be thrown back over the Mediterranean Sea' that is from a speech you gave, not your Facebook page."
Winter: "See."
Wolf: "But this came from you. Right?"
Winter: "And what happened there? What happened after that speech? I was convicted after this speech. How dare you to hold that against me now. It's all done. It's over. Yes. So occupy yourself with what is happening now."

Wolf: "So you say, not only your future work will be senseless, but also your work up to this point was senseless?"
Winter: "My work in some way... in some was not what I expected what a member of the national council would be able to do. That's true."

[Cranberry]

You just got to love Armin Wolf

[DavidB.]

This is the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNQvGj8qWTg

[Tender Branson]

Winter was expelled from the FPÖ.

Good.

She was sort-of-crazy anyway and it was only a matter of time that she was kicked out.

Also, it's good to see that the FPÖ finally applies some kind of zero-tolerance policy on anti-semitism in their own ranks.

[Tender Branson]

New 2016 Presidential poll by Gallup for Ö24:

36% Griss (Indy/FPÖ/NEOS)
35% VdB (Greens)
19% Pröll (ÖVP)
10% Hundstorfer (SPÖ)

One of the craziest & most shocking results I've ever seen ...



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Griss-im-Rennen-um-die-Hofburg-voran/211056022

[Tender Branson]

Irmgard Griss (a former Chief Justice of the Austrian Supreme Court) looks more and more likely to run as an independent anti-establishment candidate with the official backing of the FPÖ and NEOS.

FPÖ-leader Strache called her a great candidate and that they might back her run later on, while NEOS has invited her to their "NEOS Lab" (their party academy), where she'll talk to party members about her plans and visions for the Presidency on Nov. 23:

https://lab.neos.eu/neos-events/oesterreich-neu-denken

[Tender Branson]

Coalition talks in Vienna between SPÖ-Greens are in the home stretch and the new (old) city government could be presented on Thursday:

http://derstandard.at/2000025233558/Rot-Gruen-II-koennte-Donnerstag-fixiert-werden

[Tender Branson]

Gallup:

FPÖ remains 8% ahead of the SPÖ, foreign minister Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) remains the most popular cabinet member and interior minister Johanna Mikl-Leitner (ÖVP) remains the most unpopular one:

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is it me, or does a candidate jointly backed by FPO and NEOS seem absurd?

[Cranberry]

Is it me, or does a candidate jointly backed by FPO and NEOS seem absurd?

Oh not at all, it is pretty strange.

Mainly they both did out of lack of better options. NEOS don't have any personal assets they could send in for the presidential race yet - parties usually nominate some experienced elder statesman type, and NEOS are just to young for having that.

FPÖ nominations on the other hand usually turn out to be a disaster because you can absolutely sure that the backbencher they send in this time has some sort of racist/xenohob/islamophob/bigoted/anti-semite choose whatever you want comment on his facebook page or wherever; so they decided to avert that this time by backing the "harmless" Griss.

[Flocke]

Is it me, or does a candidate jointly backed by FPO and NEOS seem absurd?

I don't think they will both back her. If the FPÖ backs her, NEOS will properly argue that there are several good candidates in the race, and their voters are mature enough to decide for themselves. If Moser runs for the FPÖ, NEOS will most likely back Griss.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Former Vice-Chancellor Erhard Busek is on the NEOS Lab Board of Trustees.

[Tender Branson]

Is it me, or does a candidate jointly backed by FPO and NEOS seem absurd?

They are only thinking about backing her so far.

The Presidential campaign only starts after New Year, when the candidates are announced officially and only then are we going to know if FPÖ and/or NEOS are really backing her or run their own candidates.

[Tender Branson]

Which of these institutions do Austrians trust or have faith in ?

trust (high & moderate)/neutral/no trust

85-13-3   Doctors
82-14-4   Police
75-20-5   Healthcare System
64-25-9   Justice System
60-25-14 Alternative Medicine
42-39-18 Pension System
43-33-22 Military
39-29-30 Catholic Church
31-35-33 European Union
17-40-42 Austrian Politics/Politicians/Parties



http://www.makam.at/de/pressetexte/hohes-vertrauen-in-arzte-und-polizei-misstrauen-gegenuber-politik