World Cup 2018 and 2022: Site Selection

[Platypus]

Qatar would be a massive mistake. Better off waiting for Turkey to host the next European world cup. It's too hot, there's limited sporting passion, no booze, limited soccer history, limited potential growth, lots of corruption, and most problematically only really one city.

2018 should go to England, but I want either Spain/Portugal or Russia, because if England win and Australia loses the 2022 vote to the USA the likelihood of a third Anglosphere host in 2026 is very remote. 2026 should be Asia, so that Asia can host again sooner rather than later (if 2022 is in Asia, it opens up 2034; otherwise Asia waits for 2026 and 2038 which is too few too far apart from 2002). The US has a very strong chance of 2026 should it lose 2022, especially is Japan, Korea or Qatar win but even if not it's the most likely pick because who else in CONCACAF could host?

So, if we accept 2022 as Asian, and exclude Japan and South Korea, we're left with a choice between one of the most sports-mad countries on earth with great facilities, significant major events experience, good security, bad timezones and the only country in it's region able to host and with any real soccer pedigree (even if it is slight) vs. Qatar. Seems like an obvious choice to me, but FIFA is anything but obvious...we'll probably end up with Belgium/Netherlands and South Korea.

[Platypus]

Why does FIFA select host sites for two tournaments at once? Picking them separately seems like an easy fix for Sepp Blatter's "inevitable" collusion.

This is a one-off, and it has three purposes:

1. Sepp Blatter's job security is a bit less secure than in the past, and he wants to have as much influence as possible for as long as possible

2. With more bidders, the wooing is diversified so that at least no country is spending as much time and money bribing people

3. The last couple of world cup decisions were basically foregone conclusions and FIFA wanted as much excitement as possible for the next decision

[Platypus]

It's online at http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/bidders/live/index.html

Blatter was very enthusiastic about the Aussie presentation, and rather sober for Qatar's. South Korea has no chance and the US presentation starts now-ish.

[Platypus]

I'm feeling more and more confident about our chances, the Australian presentation hit all the points that FIFA wanted to hear and also had some absolutely stunning shots of the landscape (check out the Australian presentation, there'll be a link to it in the FIFA page I provided before)

[Platypus]

Oh, and Sunil Galati seems like someone talking about a new Google project. Frank Lowy sounded like a genuine fan with real passion for the World Cup and Australia.

[Platypus]

Oh, Bill... trying to copy the Australian 'we're totez multicultural and it'd be a home world cup for the world' looks bad and is comparatively false. So STFU stoopid President

(It's 3:30am, don't attack me too harshly )

[Platypus]

My highly biased rankings in terms of preference:

1: Australia
2: USA
3: South Korea
4: Japan
5: Qatar

My slightly less biased rankings in terms of likelihood:

1: Australia
2: Qatar
3: USA
4: Japan
5: South Korea

[Platypus]

BTW, here are the current odds:

2018
$2.00 Russia
$2.50 England
$4.80 Spain/Portugal
$23.00 Belgium/Netherlands

2022
$2.00 Australia
$2.80 USA
$3.25 Qatar
$15.00 Japan
$21.00 South Korea

Russia is a surprise

[Platypus]

England and the USA because they are both Anglophone nations so I will still understand what is going on.  And, hopefully, these nations will filture out the annoying buzzing sound in their broadcasts.

Which is what might doom the U.S. If England is picked tomorrow, I'll be pleased but I won't be feeling great about our chances at hosting 2022.

Similar problem for Australia. The big difference is that if the US wins 2022, Australia has zero chance at 2026. Asia and North America will host 2022 and 2026. If Australia wins 2022 the US will still be the frontrunner for 2026; if the US wins 2022 Australia I almost certainly a no-hoper for 2022, especially if England wins 2018. Obviously if another Asian country wins 2022 we're dead until at least 2034, more realistically 2046 because China will get a World Cup sooner rather than later.

So in short, if you ever want to see an Aussie world cup, it has to be this one. The US's only real rival is Mexico and that's real in the loosest terms, so you'll host 2026 anyway. Give us 2022.

[Platypus]

Presuming 2022 goes to an Asian country, USA 2026 is about as certain as it gets. Asia and Europe would be ineligible; Oceania and Africa are no-hopers, and the only possible contenders for 2026 would be Argentina/Chile, Colombia (maybe with Venezuela if Chavez is gone), Mexico and at a stretch Canada. Of that field, the US would be almost unbackable favourites.

Compare that to the USA winning 2022. Asia would then certainly host 2026; Japan and Sth Korea are still out of the running but China would be a difficult nation to beat and a broader bid from the middle east than just Qatar would be the only real rival to it. Australia would have about as much of a chance as Japan or Korea has this time around.

Personally, I'd much rather see Australia host than China or the Middle East. I think a US world cup would be a good one, but the combinations suggest the ideal outcome would be Australia 2022, USA 2026, and both of us hoping the English fail

Spain/Portugal winning would actually be ideal, because it limits the intensity of Latin nations calling for a spanish-speaking world cup in 2026.

[Platypus]

After watching the 2018 bids, go Belgium/Netherlands!

[Platypus]

Gutted. Australia played the game fairly, cleanly and soberly. We had a strong bid, we're a 'new frontier', the timing was right, England didn't win 2018 so we had no anglospheric hangover...and we got one vote.

Neither Russia nor Qatar qualified for 2010...so I guess we can say this isn't about the football pedigree, either.

Russia isn't the country I would pick but it is a reasonable choice...Manama 2022 will be a month of fail though. I would be happy to see a broader Middle East bid, maybe involving, say, Qatar along with Bahrain and the UAE; or Turkey; or maybe even a North African bid. Hell, even Iran. But Qatar? What a joke.

The good news for the Americans is that you're almost certainly guaranteed 2026 now.

[Platypus]

Manama 2022 will be a month of fail though.

*cough* Doha *cough*

Oops. Same diff.

[Platypus]

FIFA's Requirements for hosting World Cups (2010 edition)
a. be a dictatorship
b. suck at the game
c. total disregard for human rights
d. have tons of cash to pay Blatter and his cronies

Actually, Blatter is rumoured to have voted for England and the USA.

[Platypus]

FIFA's Requirements for hosting World Cups (2010 edition)
a. be a dictatorship
b. suck at the game
c. total disregard for human rights
d. have tons of cash to pay Blatter and his cronies

Actually, Blatter is rumoured to have voted for England and the USA.

Blatter can't vote unless there is a tie.

IIRC he gets to vote twice in case of a tie.

Indeed.

[Platypus]

FIFA: French Idiots F**king Around

[Platypus]

Obviously, Australians are even more peeved than we were.

If it was a free and fair election, we might still have lost - but we'd have gotten more than one vote, and I believe we'd have had every chance of winning. After all, we had the best bid.

[Platypus]

It still sickens me.

[Platypus]

*cough*

But yeah, anyone but Qatar works.

[Platypus]

The choice of Qatar was one of the most disgusting travesties in the history of sports, for a myriad of reasons.

One of which being that the U.S. was denied the right to host when we unquestionably deserve it.

*cough*

[Platypus]

Actually, if the Europeans and South Americans are boycotting, I like Australia's chances of making the quarters or better, so...

Mexico-USA-Japan-South Korea-maybe by then China-Nigeria-Ghana-another couple of African countries that are peaking at the time...

But in short, the tournament can't be stripped now. They've started building and the legal fees would be insanely high for FIFA.

It should never have been awarded, it should have been stripped the second they applied to change things up in terms of the timing, it should have been stripped the second corruption was exposed, but it can't be stripped if it's just because FIFA has a new President.

[Platypus]

Also the AFC would go batsh**t if it was stripped from Qatar, and doubly batsh**t if it was taken outside of Western Asia and triply batsh**t if it was taken outside of the AFC.

[Platypus]

With China getting 2038 and Australia shut out until *at least* 2050 so that Qatar can have a world cup instead.

[Platypus]

But it's true. The next Asian host will be China, pretty much for sure. Which means that after 2022 the first occasion for that is 2034, which is taken by Europe, so 2038. Which means the next Asian confederation host can't be until 2050.

It's not that hard to work it out.

2026 is 95% certain to be CONCACAF, cos I doubt Africa or ceania will put forward a strong enough bid;

2030 will be either a European bid or Argentina/Uruguay,

2034 will either be European or Argentina/Uruguay or China

2038 will either be China or Africa

2042 will be Africa or (if A/U never happened) South America

2046 will be Europe or South America

2050 will be Europe, Africa, or Asia

-------------

So the earliest possible for us is 2050. Unless somehow we get the Asian spot for the 2030s, but the likelihood of that is near zero. We had a brief window where China was stepping back after the Olympics from hosting all-eyes-of-the-world sporting events, and now we've lost that wibdow and with it any chance of getting the next Asian WC.

[Platypus]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/24/qatar-2022-world-cup-185-nepalese-workers-died-2013

185.

Official figures, so times that by 3 or so.