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RI
realisticidealist
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Posts: 14,789


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

« on: March 29, 2010, 11:15:17 PM »

This challenge is too boring.  One can too easily use 2008 as a baseline, and then make minor tweaks here and there.  A real challenge would be doing an Iowa caucus prediction map by county.


Here are a couple of scenarios of various candidates with maps. They are almost complete guesses; there are only five previous Iowa Republican caucuses to go off of. The last one is just for fun though. Wink

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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,789


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

« Reply #1 on: April 05, 2010, 01:56:33 AM »

That Iowa map should have Mitt wining the county which not only has the cheapest farmland in Iowa, but also has a lot of Mormons - to wit, Decatur, which is the fifth county over to the east from the Nebraska border on the Missouri border.

I didn't know that, but it makes sense. I can adjust my maps accordingly.

Don't know the area at all really, but something tells me Huck beats Palin around Sioux etc. They seem to be more into Jesus specifically rather than a generic temper tantrum against "elites" or whatever it is Palin goes on about.

Could very well be. I put it the way I did only because I read once that Huckabee won states and counties with some correlation to the Baptist percentage. IIRC, Sioux is a Dutch Calvinist area that I thought was better suited to a non-denominational Christian message than a Southern Baptist one. It just seemed to me like the one area of the state that Palin could do well in. Maybe not, I don't know. We'll have to wait to see. Tongue
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