US House Redistricting: New York

[krazen1211]

Krazen says his Meeks CD is 47% black.

A big problem with yanking Nassau county blacks out of the 4th is that it makes it, well, not vulnerable, but not a snoozefest either.

This drops it to 57% Obama.




Not in a million years will that district go to Hempstead (imo). The GOP is certainly better off if Peter King is not heavily packed, but now that Israel is DCCC chair...

[krazen1211]

if you want to make this fair move (jewish) Far Rockway to the 4th

Yeah, there's a funny six-precinct or so enclave of 90%+ Hasidic precincts ... that's split in two by the city line. I always thought that detail hilarious.

So half of them have to pay the city tax, and half of them don't. Interesting.

The other option I tried mapping is placing Maloney in a wholly Manhattan district that stretches from Midtown up to Washington Heights. But half that territory would be Rangel's and I imagine she would pitch a fit, and anyone that high on Financial Services will likely get what they want.

I still would have liked to place Maloney entirely in Manhattan, Rangel almost entirely in the Bronx, and Crowley entirely in Queens. Alas it is unlikely to be.

[krazen1211]

Whatever became of Charlie's ethic troubles btw?

He was censured and I think it ended there. Of course if they push that district into the Bronx he will get primaried.

[krazen1211]

The NYS Senate Republicans' map:



Syracuse gets custody of Ithaca.  The Albany district gets part of Ulster County in the Hinchey Carve-Up.  As we already knew, Ackerman faces off against McCarthy.

Looks like Nadler condenses into Manhattan?

The assembly map seems to try to preserve a district for Buerkhle. The Senate map seems to just write it off by putting Cornell there.

[krazen1211]

I can see why Ruben Diaz was upset about the assembly map.

The Bronx only gets 1 Rep guaranteed there while Manhattan gets 3.

[krazen1211]

I can see why Ruben Diaz was upset about the assembly map.

The Bronx only gets 1 Rep guaranteed there while Manhattan gets 3.

The Bronx would still have two reps- Serrano and Engel.

What are the population breakdowns of Engel's district there? A sizable portion of that district appears to be outside the Bronx and he could eventually be replaced by a suburban Rep.

Manhattan of course still dominates 3 districts with 2 districts of population either way. So that 1 district has to come from somewhere.

[krazen1211]

I don't take kindly to insinuations that I'm prejudiced against elements of my own ethnic and cultural background. Also 'anti-Semite' does not mean 'prejudiced against Jews who practice what NY Jew considers 'acceptable' Judaism'. It means 'prejudiced against Jews'.

Why do you assume I would 'sell you down the river for a dollar'? I have no interest in keeping Borough Park and Flatbush split as they are. Almost every aspect of the division of New York City at present is absurd. There is a difference between wanting a more reasonable split and insisting that a specifically Orthodox Jewish district be created just because you personally don't like the Jews currently in the US House, which is frankly ridiculous. It is not equivalent to insisting that an LGBT district be created (which is absurd anyway. If it looked like it was being intentionally split up to dilute representation of a specific group and not other groups that would be one thing, but in this case almost the entire City of New York looks like grass script and there are plenty of other pissed-off groups, I assure you) but rather to saying that even though LGBT people are in Congress at several times the rate of their preponderance in the population (which they are not, for what it's worth), they're the wrong kind of LGBT people and the VRA needs to be exercised to ensure representation of specific interest groups within that set of people.

This is certainly a horrible and uncalled-for gerrymander, but it's political, not ethnic or religious. The things that you're complaining about and feel persecuted based on are political in character.

What you're asking for isn't ridiculous or even particularly unreasonable but it hasn't got terribly much to do with the VRA and the way you're going about asking for it is...well, yeah. I can try to draw a district for you of the sort that you'd want (it actually might be a lot of fun looking over demographic stats to see how the 'white' areas of southern Brooklyn break down ethnically), but I'd like an apology first.

actually it is 100% based on religiosity (the gerrymandering started before we started voting Republican ) and there is no area in the country that comes even close to this in terms of gerrymandering and it is done even for relatively small communities.

All right, fine. I'll take a crack at doing a New York redistricting and we'll see if the resulting district  makes sense. My prediction is that I can get it up to about 40-42% Jewish before it starts getting ridiculous.

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The reasons why I'm not immensely fond of Borough Park and 'Flatbush' have nothing to do with the religion of the people there, even if I take your word for it that the gerrymander does.

The population of Brooklyn only has enough blacks for 1 full district. If one operates under the assumption that they get 2 districts, obviously, 1 has to come at the expense of something else.


The 11th district was 74% black after the 1990 redistricting, 71% black in 2000, 60% black after the 2002 redistricting, and about 58% black now.

[krazen1211]

Brooklyn is about 3 and a half CDs with about 32% black population. The natural division would be for 1 black-majority CD. However with 25% of the population of NYC (with 11.4 CDs), one would reasonably expect there to be 3 black-majority CDs citywide. Brooklyn and Queens are the best places to put them, so that implies 2 Brooklyn-based black-majority CDs.

Well, I guess that's true given the current Demographics. But given population shifts, and NY probably losing another 2 districts next census, the better location for a 3rd black district seems to be the Rangel one stretching to Mt. Vernon that can better pick up suburban black flight precincts.

[krazen1211]

Tomorrow after church I think I'll draw and post the ultimate map to piss off NY Jew: Keep all of Borough Park together but put it into a black majority seat.

unless your a judge in the case, a member of the legislature or somehow able to convince the court to open it up to the public again why should I care about your antisemitic map?

Please don't throw that word around so lightly. Thank you.

It's not lightly anyone who would purposely destroy the Jewish vote like he wants to is a vile anti semite, and I will call him out on it.

Why are you so sure it is animated by Jew hatred as opposed to securing partisan advantage? How can you be so confident about the motives of people?  Sure one can hypothesize until the cows come home, but to make a flat out assertion is not something that well, a lawyer would do, because the facts just don't support making a clear and convincing case that the motive is in fact based on ethnic animus rather than what is typically the case, which is about getting as many of your team elected as possible.

As I understand his argument:

The white population in South Brooklyn, which composes of slightly more than a Congressional district, was cracked into 5 (8, 9, 10, 11, 13) when they used to vote Democrat. At the time the current mapping was drawn Al Gore won the area handily.

I wouldn't call it partisanship; rather, there are currently 13 districts in New York City and more than 13 communities that want districts to themselves. So, they picked one to hose.

[krazen1211]

I have NY-13, which is about tied or R+1, take in only Bay Ridge in Brooklyn, and the Rockaways, Howard Beach, and some of Ozone Park in Queens. Dyker Heights and Bath Beach are in the Jewish district, which is hence probably a little less Jewish than yours, but it means that I was able to get it all the way up to what I'm pretty sure is R+11. I might switch some of Dyker Heights and Bath Beach into the Grimm district and put whatever that Asian area just north-east of Bay Ridge is in with the Jews.

"Whatever that Asian area just north-east of Bay Ridge is" is Brooklyn's Chinatown (also sort-of considered part of Sunset Park), and it's arguably the main reason for the continued existence of Velasquez's district: they will raise holy hell if they're not in a district with Manhattan's Chinatown as well, and they seem to prefer being part of an Asian-Hispanic coalition district with Velasquez. 

I continue to maintain that "hipsters" are a coherent CoI which keeps getting unfairly sliced and diced in all of these maps.  There are plenty of white liberals in Brooklyn, why don't they have a seat?

Hmph. Would you attach them to the east side, the west side, or to Astoria?

[krazen1211]

Chopping Buffalo is just as partisan as it was 10 years ago. This time its merely proposed for the opposite party.

[krazen1211]

Are there any hipsters in Queens? Bands from there tend to be either pop punk, "tough guy" hardcore, or metalcore.

LIC and Astoria have some.

Yeah, that's why I suggested you add those to Williamsburg.

I'll take another look at your Brooklyn district and see how many Hispanics/Conservative whites you added to your hipster district. Your map obviously drowns out South Brooklyn whites.

[krazen1211]

Also: I bet Steve Israel and Peter King are both absolutely furious right now.  Long Island just got a hell of a lot more competitive.

Certainly both of them can lobby the legislature to give them a legislative map.

[krazen1211]

Obama McCain numbers:

27: 44.5%-53.9% Hochul
26: 63.5%-35.0% Higgins
25: 58.8%-39.9% Slaughter
24: 56.2%-42.0% Buerkhle
23: 49.5%-48.8% Reed
22: 49.1%-49.1% Hanna
21: 51.6%-46.8% Owens
20: 58.3%-39.8% Tonko
19: 52.8%-45.4% Gibson
17: 58.0%-41.2% Lowery
18: 52.1%-46.8% Hayworth
4: 55.3-43.9% McCarthy
1: 51.4-47.6 Bishop
2: 51.2-47.9 King
3: 53.5-45.6 Israel



I still suspect that King/Israel will get their districts redone.

[krazen1211]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/03/06/1071680/-NY-Special-Master-Map-statistics?via=sidebytagfeed

Full data.

[krazen1211]

Ackerman stakes his claim on the 6th. I guess he didn't want Crowley getting there first.


Schumer won all 27 districts. Gillibrand won 26.

[krazen1211]

Israel, King and McCarthy should all be safe, unless you get wave years, where they could all lose with this map.  Not to mention that it makes Bishop ever so slightly more Republican - I doubt he would have won there in 2010.  

If there's one Long Island Democrat who should be unhappy, it'd be Bishop. (And if you want to make a bipartisan deal for King, give him all of Smithtown and find Bishop some more marginal places in the south instead.)

The Democrats have about 15 or so long term influential incumbents to yell at Sheldon Silver to cut a deal.

The GOP has 1. An important one of course.

I don't see any possible way this map stands.

[krazen1211]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

[krazen1211]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that?  

Because she wants Shelly Silver to redraw the map.


Dean Skelos is calling their bluff.

http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Wednesday-GOP-Likes-Redistricting-Plan-141789963.html

New York Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos says Republicans could pick up four Congressional seats under the new district lines proposed by a judge this week.
   
Skelos says he likes the proposed congressional lines and there may be little if any change to the federal magistrate's redistricting plan.

[krazen1211]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that?  

Because she wants Shelly Silver to redraw the map.


Dean Skelos is calling their bluff.

http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Wednesday-GOP-Likes-Redistricting-Plan-141789963.html

New York Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos says Republicans could pick up four Congressional seats under the new district lines proposed by a judge this week.
   
Skelos says he likes the proposed congressional lines and there may be little if any change to the federal magistrate's redistricting plan.

Which districts?  If Republicans couldnt pick up NY-01, NY-02, NY-04, and NY-23 in 2010 when indepdendents were more Republican than they will ever be again in our lifetimes and Democratic turnout fell through the floor, they wont be picking them up in 2012. 

Probably not NY-04, but rather NY-27 (Hochul).

[krazen1211]

Slaughter's seat in that map is around 59% Obama. How many 59% Obama seats are held by Republicans? The only one I can think of is that one in Illinois that was barely held in 2010 against a horrible twice loser candidate and is in Illinois so Obama's margin is obviously inflated.

Gerlach and Reichert hold comparable districts.

[krazen1211]

Slaughter is 82 years old. Not sure I understand the Republican bloodlust against her. She will retire soon enough.

It has to do with her extreme proabortion views. That said, Slaughter is interesting mostly because her comments regarding Ithaca are very funny!

Skelos should be pushing Torie's solution to earmuff into Syracuse.

[krazen1211]

Slaughter is 82 years old. Not sure I understand the Republican bloodlust against her. She will retire soon enough.

It has to do with her extreme proabortion views.

most democrats, including most blue dogs, support abortion rights. What's the big deal?

Statements like this.

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/rep-louise-slaughter-gop-freshmen-came-washington-kill-women

And legislation like this.

http://www.louise.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2502&Itemid=100065

[krazen1211]

Torie, every time you take the field for the Republicans, the Dems collapse and sign up for some terrible bargain that gives them 10% of the loaf.

Unhappiness with the court map seems to be focused on the idiosyncratic case of Slaughter losing a safe district and Pelosi making a cameo on her behalf, and some new risk to entrenched Dems on LI. Does anyone really believe the Pubbies are happy with Turner getting vaporized, Buerkle getting no support and on her way out, and Gibson unexpectedly being endangered? This map gives both parties more opportunity for growth, but make no mistake, it's not a win for the Pubbies.

The GOP held the Syracuse district for a long time before Maffei. Kind of like Turner's district in that regard.

In any case, the GOP got relatively hosed in 2002, losing 2 upstate seats (technically, Lafalce was eliminated but they got Jack Quinn's district 2 years later. This time around the Democrats are effectively losing 2 seats.

[krazen1211]

We seem to be missing the point.  The smart members of the state GOP (i.e. the State Senate and its Congressmen) are looking towards two things only:

1) shoring up incumbents insofar as they can be shored up (and they will compare to prior congressional incumbents and State Senate incumbents in Long Island and upstate NY in that regard, which is the correct, though as you can imagine, risky, measure, but considering they've had great success in the past 25 years amidst really bad, and continually worsening returns upballot, it's the correct model).

2) getting as many potentially competitive seats as possible using the above congressional incumbent/State Senate incumbent measure that are either competitive now or certainly could be under circumstances (i.e. retirement, wave).  Let's break this down...

Given Republican exploits in the past decade, that means a CD of D+3 PVI or less, I suspect, though it might be extended to D+5 in upstate, but to be cautious, let's say the former.  In the 2000 map, the number of those seats is 10 out of 29, of which Republicans hold 9.  If we extend it to D+5, we add 3 more (Higgins, Turner and Israel), of which Republicans now hold 1. 

I would need to get exact numbers to calculate PVI for the proposed court map, but it is almost certain that NY-1 through NY-3 are D+3 PVI or less (NY-1 and NY-2 will both be about R+1, NY-3 about D+0 or D+1), and it is likely that NY-4 is D+3, maybe D+4, but my suspicion is the former.  Sure King is a good bit less safe, and could be in trouble if a wave hit, but let's remember he did get 56% in 2006 and 64% in 2008.  Obviously, it becomes a greater problem if he retires, but that's the tradeoff.  The State GOP will likely view all four as potentially competitive under the above standard.

NY-9 is dead.  NY-11 remains about R+4, maybe R+5.  NY-17 (Lowey) is probably pushed down to D+6, but it might be D+5.  The State GOP may view this as competitive is vacant, but let's say for theoretical purposes they don't.  I'm almost certain that NY-18 (Hayworth) has a GOP PVI (probably R+1), but NY-19 (Gibson) is probably right at even, not going to make guesses there.  At any rate, these are two more competitive CDs.  NY-20 (Tonko) should stay at D+6.  NY-21 (Owens) did not get any help, and will be at R+1, I'm almost certain.  That's another four competitive seats for the NY GOP.

Continuing further, Hanna really gets favorable treatment in NY-22 - his CD is probably R+3 now or R+4.  To benefit Hanna, Reed in NY-23 is probably now about R+3 also.  Buerkle in NY-24 looks roughly the same as before, but may lose a point to D+4.  The NY GOP is likely to consider that potentially competitive, given Republican strength in years past - I tend to agree with those who say that this view is probably right, just not with Buerkle.  Slaughter is complaining in NY-25 because she's going to get a D+6 or D+7 district.  I don't see how this one is going to be viewed as competitive by the NY GOP, but obviously she's concerned about something (whether real or imagined).  NY-26 (Higgins) becomes safe, and NY-27 (Hochul) is probably about R+8 or so in an area that typically acts more Republican than that downballot.  Good luck to her.  So, four more seats for the state GOP to view as potentially competitive.

So, we have 12 seats that the state GOP is going to view as potentially competitive under possibly my measure (D+3) vs. 10 seats in the 2000 map (D+3).  Even if I'm wrong about NY-4 and NY-24, such that they're outside the D+3 measure, that's still 10 vs. 10.  Going with the broader measure of D+5, it is certainly 12 vs. 13, which again means that the GOP didn't really lose anything.  Going further than that, the 2000 map had 3 D+6 seats, whereas this map also has three seats that will probably be such.

Given this evaluation, why would the smart people in the GOP ever voice any opposition to what the Court is doing, other than to ask for a little help for Gibson and King's districts?  Sure, they'd like to play games to constitute a Turner/NY Jew district, but they don't hold all the cards, obviously...

NY-20(Tonko) is not a competitive seat.  No Republican is ever going to win a seat where half of the votes come from Albany county. 

Lowery is also not going anywhere. Population losses of course are bleeding upstate NY cities and rurals; its tough to say where those seats are going over 10 years.