French Regionals 2010

[Hash]

What happened to UMP in Lorraine? UMP is pretty good there usually, if I remember well.

It's hard to say, really. A mix of these things probably:

1. Good but little-known candidate with little base (he isn't mayor, deputy only since 2002)
2. Gandrange is here, and it has been shown it has hurt the UMP throughout the region
3. Gérard Longuet's racist statements days before the vote (Longuet was president until 2004 and top-candidate in the Meuse)
4. Popular PS incumbent (I'm not sure, just a guess)
5. FN at 14.87%

As for Orne, Beauvais was mayor of Argentan, which is in the constituency where he broke 40%.

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Party maps:

[PGSable]

Just a little question to our Breton secessionist, why is the PB so strong in Loire-Atlantique from Notre-Dame-des-Landes to the boundary since it seems significantly weaker on the other side of the Brittany border ?

Note that Jacky Flippot, the PB list's first candidate in Pays de la Loire, is the former deputy mayor of Blain (which is the largest commune in the darkest shade in Loire-Atlantique, directly north of Notre-Dame-des-Landes).

[Хahar 🤔]

The center has finally been assimilated into the right.

[Antonio the Sixth]

News: there is finally no deal between FG and PS in Limousin, so a three-way there. No deal either in Picardie between FG (non-Gremetz, 5% or so) and the PS. And of course, l'exception bretonne for the PS-EE deal.

A new map, results by constituency:



lol at Marleix's base in Cantal. lol also at NDA's base in Yerres. Favourite son patterns to the max. The results around Saumur and Chateau-Gontier (the UMP deputy, Favennec, was on the UMP list, though) for the UMP are also interesting, as is Joyandet's strong showing in Pontarlier and Vesoul (where he's mayor) and also the UMP's strength in northern Bas-Rhin.

What is really amazing is how sh**t-poor the UMP did in Lorraine, it's quite shocking. Also, another thing to pick up is how poorly the UMP did out west. Auxiette and Beauvais are ahead of the UMP by the first round in their regions, showing a continuation of the recent turn to the left of the historically right-wing reactionary belt of the inner west.

As in 2004, the destruction of the UMP in working-class areas is shocking, though not unsurprising.

Lorraine, Midi and Bretagne are the 3 regions where the UMP did not win any constituency.

Do you know how many constituencies were won by each party ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow... Just heard Bernard Debré at the radio and he said things that would have been unthinkable for a right-winger just some months before... Really, it's the first time I hear such criticism (yeah, Juppé also has already been a "free speaker", but it's more). I really start thinking the "Sarkozy system" is beginning to collapse...
And that makes me feel good.

[Hash]

News: there is finally no deal between FG and PS in Limousin, so a three-way there. No deal either in Picardie between FG (non-Gremetz, 5% or so) and the PS. And of course, l'exception bretonne for the PS-EE deal.

A new map, results by constituency:



lol at Marleix's base in Cantal. lol also at NDA's base in Yerres. Favourite son patterns to the max. The results around Saumur and Chateau-Gontier (the UMP deputy, Favennec, was on the UMP list, though) for the UMP are also interesting, as is Joyandet's strong showing in Pontarlier and Vesoul (where he's mayor) and also the UMP's strength in northern Bas-Rhin.

What is really amazing is how sh**t-poor the UMP did in Lorraine, it's quite shocking. Also, another thing to pick up is how poorly the UMP did out west. Auxiette and Beauvais are ahead of the UMP by the first round in their regions, showing a continuation of the recent turn to the left of the historically right-wing reactionary belt of the inner west.

As in 2004, the destruction of the UMP in working-class areas is shocking, though not unsurprising.

Lorraine, Midi and Bretagne are the 3 regions where the UMP did not win any constituency.

Do you know how many constituencies were won by each party ?

including DOMs

PS-DVG-Giacobbi 367
UMP 191
FG 4
PPM-Letchimy 3
Regionalist 2 (1 Femu a Corsica, 1 MIM)
PCR 2
DLR 1

[Antonio the Sixth]

News: there is finally no deal between FG and PS in Limousin, so a three-way there. No deal either in Picardie between FG (non-Gremetz, 5% or so) and the PS. And of course, l'exception bretonne for the PS-EE deal.

A new map, results by constituency:



lol at Marleix's base in Cantal. lol also at NDA's base in Yerres. Favourite son patterns to the max. The results around Saumur and Chateau-Gontier (the UMP deputy, Favennec, was on the UMP list, though) for the UMP are also interesting, as is Joyandet's strong showing in Pontarlier and Vesoul (where he's mayor) and also the UMP's strength in northern Bas-Rhin.

What is really amazing is how sh**t-poor the UMP did in Lorraine, it's quite shocking. Also, another thing to pick up is how poorly the UMP did out west. Auxiette and Beauvais are ahead of the UMP by the first round in their regions, showing a continuation of the recent turn to the left of the historically right-wing reactionary belt of the inner west.

As in 2004, the destruction of the UMP in working-class areas is shocking, though not unsurprising.

Lorraine, Midi and Bretagne are the 3 regions where the UMP did not win any constituency.

Do you know how many constituencies were won by each party ?

including DOMs

PS-DVG-Giacobbi 367
UMP 191
FG 4
PPM-Letchimy 3
Regionalist 2 (1 Femu a Corsica, 1 MIM)
PCR 2
DLR 1

Wow... If only that were the results of 2007 legislqtives.

[Hash]

News: there is finally no deal between FG and PS in Limousin, so a three-way there. No deal either in Picardie between FG (non-Gremetz, 5% or so) and the PS. And of course, l'exception bretonne for the PS-EE deal.

A new map, results by constituency:



lol at Marleix's base in Cantal. lol also at NDA's base in Yerres. Favourite son patterns to the max. The results around Saumur and Chateau-Gontier (the UMP deputy, Favennec, was on the UMP list, though) for the UMP are also interesting, as is Joyandet's strong showing in Pontarlier and Vesoul (where he's mayor) and also the UMP's strength in northern Bas-Rhin.

What is really amazing is how sh**t-poor the UMP did in Lorraine, it's quite shocking. Also, another thing to pick up is how poorly the UMP did out west. Auxiette and Beauvais are ahead of the UMP by the first round in their regions, showing a continuation of the recent turn to the left of the historically right-wing reactionary belt of the inner west.

As in 2004, the destruction of the UMP in working-class areas is shocking, though not unsurprising.

Lorraine, Midi and Bretagne are the 3 regions where the UMP did not win any constituency.

Do you know how many constituencies were won by each party ?

including DOMs

PS-DVG-Giacobbi 367
UMP 191
FG 4
PPM-Letchimy 3
Regionalist 2 (1 Femu a Corsica, 1 MIM)
PCR 2
DLR 1

Wow... If only that were the results of 2007 legislqtives.

It's only the first round, and with the left's division, it doesn't mean much of anything. You'll see a much, much bleaker image for the UMP on Sunday. Much bleaker.

[big bad fab]

What happened to UMP in Lorraine? UMP is pretty good there usually, if I remember well.

It's hard to say, really. A mix of these things probably:

1. Good but little-known candidate with little base (he isn't mayor, deputy only since 2002)
2. Gandrange is here, and it has been shown it has hurt the UMP throughout the region
3. Gérard Longuet's racist statements days before the vote (Longuet was president until 2004 and top-candidate in the Meuse)
4. Popular PS incumbent (I'm not sure, just a guess)
5. FN at 14.87%

As for Orne, Beauvais was mayor of Argentan, which is in the constituency where he broke 40%.

- Laurent Hénart is quite well-known now. Maybe there can have been a Mosellan opposition against this Rossinot's protégé.
Longuet: I really don't think so.
But Gandrange, sure !

But the biggest explanation is that, apart from a good result for the FN AND a good result for the MNR (3%), there was a DLR list unofficially supported by Christian Poncelet and which was above 2%.
And, of course, an AEI list with 2.5%.

Lorraine is indeed probably the biggest failure for the UMP, though it is down now for some time in Meuse. Moselle is the most worrying, of course...

- Vendée, Marne, even Aube, aren't very good either...

- Oh and don't forget favourite son Chassaigne of course !

-The MoDem map is a joke: Bayrou would say it looks like an RPF one

What is amazing is that the 2 most "coherent" and "stable" maps (in relative terms) are those of the PS and... the FN !
No surprise in this as they are the winners of the poll, but still, that's very clear (even EE has a bit troubled map).

[Antonio the Sixth]

News: there is finally no deal between FG and PS in Limousin, so a three-way there. No deal either in Picardie between FG (non-Gremetz, 5% or so) and the PS. And of course, l'exception bretonne for the PS-EE deal.

A new map, results by constituency:



lol at Marleix's base in Cantal. lol also at NDA's base in Yerres. Favourite son patterns to the max. The results around Saumur and Chateau-Gontier (the UMP deputy, Favennec, was on the UMP list, though) for the UMP are also interesting, as is Joyandet's strong showing in Pontarlier and Vesoul (where he's mayor) and also the UMP's strength in northern Bas-Rhin.

What is really amazing is how sh**t-poor the UMP did in Lorraine, it's quite shocking. Also, another thing to pick up is how poorly the UMP did out west. Auxiette and Beauvais are ahead of the UMP by the first round in their regions, showing a continuation of the recent turn to the left of the historically right-wing reactionary belt of the inner west.

As in 2004, the destruction of the UMP in working-class areas is shocking, though not unsurprising.

Lorraine, Midi and Bretagne are the 3 regions where the UMP did not win any constituency.

Do you know how many constituencies were won by each party ?

including DOMs

PS-DVG-Giacobbi 367
UMP 191
FG 4
PPM-Letchimy 3
Regionalist 2 (1 Femu a Corsica, 1 MIM)
PCR 2
DLR 1

Wow... If only that were the results of 2007 legislqtives.

It's only the first round, and with the left's division, it doesn't mean much of anything. You'll see a much, much bleaker image for the UMP on Sunday. Much bleaker.

Indeed, since 367 seats is already an epic score for the PS, I can't immagine what the second round will give us...

But by the way... How comes a so big majority with only 2 points more ?

[big bad fab]

Be careful, Antonio, it's just a FPTP map.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Be careful, Antonio, it's just a FPTP map.

Precisely : the PS will do even better in the second round.

[big bad fab]

Be careful, Antonio, it's just a FPTP map.

Precisely : the PS will do even better in the second round.

Oh no, I just wanted to answer your question on "a so big majority with onyl 2 points more".

[Antonio the Sixth]

Be careful, Antonio, it's just a FPTP map.

Precisely : the PS will do even better in the second round.

Oh no, I just wanted to answer your question on "a so big majority with onyl 2 points more".

Indeed, winning 367 constituencies against 191 when you have only a 2-points edge seems weird to me. Such result wouldn't have surprised me in the Second Round, because indeed the PS's majority will be far higher.

[Hash]

Be careful, Antonio, it's just a FPTP map.

Precisely : the PS will do even better in the second round.

Oh no, I just wanted to answer your question on "a so big majority with onyl 2 points more".

Indeed, winning 367 constituencies against 191 when you have only a 2-points edge seems weird to me. Such result wouldn't have surprised me in the Second Round, because indeed the PS's majority will be far higher.

Such are the wonders of FPTP. The PQ won 76 seats to the Liberals' 48 in Quebec 1998 despite losing the popular vote 43-44. FPTP amplifies everything, making a small lead in the popular vote a sizable majority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The PS cleaned up in the rural west and south - and most of the old industrial areas - which probably explains that. Also... concentration of support.

[KuntaKinte]

including DOMs

PS-DVG-Giacobbi 367
UMP 191
FG 4
PPM-Letchimy 3
Regionalist 2 (1 Femu a Corsica, 1 MIM)
PCR 2
DLR 1

No FN anywhere? Surprising to me.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Be careful, Antonio, it's just a FPTP map.

Precisely : the PS will do even better in the second round.

Oh no, I just wanted to answer your question on "a so big majority with onyl 2 points more".

Indeed, winning 367 constituencies against 191 when you have only a 2-points edge seems weird to me. Such result wouldn't have surprised me in the Second Round, because indeed the PS's majority will be far higher.

Such are the wonders of FPTP. The PQ won 76 seats to the Liberals' 48 in Quebec 1998 despite losing the popular vote 43-44. FPTP amplifies everything, making a small lead in the popular vote a sizable majority.

Yeah, that's weird.
It's definitely the worst, and most retarded voting system ever. And they plan to introduce it for next local elections...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No FN anywhere? Surprising to me.

Their vote is regionally concentrated but is not especially concentrated within regions (I'm using 'region' in a totally non-official sense of the word) with a few important hot spots. Le Pen led in a load of constituencies in 2002 but that was only because of massive fragmentation of the Left vote.

Actually, I think that's the usual pattern for far-right parties in 'Western' Europe these days.

[Hash]

including DOMs

PS-DVG-Giacobbi 367
UMP 191
FG 4
PPM-Letchimy 3
Regionalist 2 (1 Femu a Corsica, 1 MIM)
PCR 2
DLR 1

No FN anywhere? Surprising to me.

Their support out east was generally quite uniform, and their only major concentrations are in Pas-de-Calais 14 (Henin-Beaumont), which they narrowly lost, and in some other constituencies in PACA. It's not concentrated enough.

[big bad fab]

What happened to UMP in Lorraine? UMP is pretty good there usually, if I remember well.

It's hard to say, really. A mix of these things probably:

1. Good but little-known candidate with little base (he isn't mayor, deputy only since 2002)
2. Gandrange is here, and it has been shown it has hurt the UMP throughout the region
3. Gérard Longuet's racist statements days before the vote (Longuet was president until 2004 and top-candidate in the Meuse)
4. Popular PS incumbent (I'm not sure, just a guess)
5. FN at 14.87%

As for Orne, Beauvais was mayor of Argentan, which is in the constituency where he broke 40%.

- Laurent Hénart is quite well-known now. Maybe there can have been a Mosellan opposition against this Rossinot's protégé.
Longuet: I really don't think so.
But Gandrange, sure !

But the biggest explanation is that, apart from a good result for the FN AND a good result for the MNR (3%), there was a DLR list unofficially supported by Christian Poncelet and which was above 2%.
And, of course, an AEI list with 2.5%.

Lorraine is indeed probably the biggest failure for the UMP, though it is down now for some time in Meuse. Moselle is the most worrying, of course...

- Vendée, Marne, even Aube, aren't very good either...

- Oh and don't forget favourite son Chassaigne of course ! And Malvy and Warsmann !

-The MoDem map is a joke: Bayrou would say it looks like an RPF one

What is amazing is that the 2 most "coherent" and "stable" maps (in relative terms) are those of the PS and... the FN !
No surprise in this as they are the winners of the poll, but still, that's very clear (even EE has a bit troubled map).

[Hash]

A map of the FN vote inside the 3 major cities:



Interesting stuff going on with the very wealthy also voting for the FN in high numbers (compared to the city average)

[Hash]

Polls

Ifop in Poitou-Charentes
PS 63%
UMP 37%

OpinionWay in Alsace
PS 43.5%
UMP 43.5%
FN 13%

Ifop in Aquitaine
PS 59%
UMP 29%
MoDem 12%

CSA in Alsace
UMP 44%
PS 43%
FN 13%

[Kevinstat]

An early start to the thread...

Regional elections for the regional legislatures of 26 "regions" (22 in France in addition to Martinique, Guadeloupe, Reunion, Guyane) are being held in March 2010 (probably the 21st and 28th, as in 2004), six years after the 2004 elections, a nightmare for the right.

The current electoral system was adopted in 2003 (the same time as the Euros electoral reform) to ensure permanent, stable majority administrations in all regions. The system used is a two-round system, with 10% of votes cast (suffrages exprimés, as opposed to registered voters, or inscrits, used in legislative elections) as a threshold for a spot in the runoff. However, if a list gets over 5% of votes cast, it can "merge" with a qualified list, meaning that the defeated list get spots on the list it merged with. For seats, there is a 5% threshold in the runoff. The winning list in the runoff automatically gets a fourth of the seats as a majority bonus, and the remaining seats are attributed proportionally, first on a region-wide basis and then divided up by 'section' (departments) based on the votes in each 'section'.

...all of this is true for all regions... except Corse - where the threshold for the runoff is 5%.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In that example, could the Greens and the UDF have merged with each other?  They got over 10% of the vote between them.  I know they wouldn't, but I'm not sure if they could.

I imagine any lists getting more than 5% of the vote in the first round (where no party has gotten a majority, in which case I know there is no runoff), can merge in the runoff in Corsica.  Is the qualifying threshold in the non-metropolitans the same as on the mainland?  Or is it the same as Corsica?  Or is it something different?