Recent Posts

Show posts from buddies only

No exit polls or "flash electoral", right?

In the entire West Coast CA/OR/WA trio, only 3 Oregon counties (Giiiam, Marion, Morrow) flipped to Bill Clinton in 1996 after having backed George H. W. Bush four years earlier, while 11 counties flipped from supporting Clinton in 1992 to voting Bob Dole the next time (4 in Oregon, 2 in Washington, and 11 in California; plus 1 Perot/Dole county in CA). Which is a bit odd, considering that California only barely swung right in 1996, and Washington even swung left.

No one (ie not a statistically significant number) who voted for Biden in 2020 is switching to Trump, especially not now.

Nope. Especially now.

Beja AirShow festival canceled after a plane crash kills one pilot and injured another:

https://twitter.com/mundo__vivo/status/1797300162970182002

The moment the two planes collide at the Beja Air Show.

The Air Force confirmed that there was an accident involving two aircraft at 4:05 pm on Sunday. There is a record of a fatal victim of Spanish nationality and a slightly injured person of Portuguese nationality. The accident occurred during an aerial demonstration at the Beja AirShow festival, at Air Base No. 11.

"The Air Force deeply regrets announcing the existence of a fatal victim of Spanish nationality, resulting from an accident during an aerial demonstration by the Iberian patrol YAKSTARS – made up of pilots of Portuguese and Spanish nationality –, which occurred at 4:05 pm, at the Beja AirShow air festival , at Air Base No. 11, in Beja", reads the statement from the Portuguese Air Force.
(...)
"The accident also resulted in a slightly injured person of Portuguese nationality who received immediate emergency care, having been assessed by the military and civilian health teams present at the event and, as a precaution, was taken to Beja Hospital", reads in the latest statement from the Portuguese Air Force.
(...)
In reaction to this accident, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa expressed his condolences for the "dramatic situation" that occurred at this air festival.

The President of the Republic also left a message of condolence to the family of the deceased.
(...)
The Prime Minister has also regretted this accident. Luís Montenegro expresses the Government's availability and solidarity.

During an AD campaign event for the European elections, the Minister of Defense, Nuno Melo, lamented this Sunday's "tragic accident" and left a word of regret to the Portuguese Air Force and his condolences to the family of the Spanish pilot who died.
(...)

Ruh roh:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1797359250085200139

Lowest favorable rating for Trump since January 6?

I suppose the numbers for him were actually worse during the 2017-18 shutdown? (icitizen also came up with some brutal all-adults polls throughout 2017 showing him at, or even below, 30%.)

3 and 5.

Putting MBD on mod review seems pretty egregious.

I believe some people support the EU how it is now, some support deeper integration, some support a retreat from the current degree of integration and an increase of autonomy for the member nation states, but I believe no one support these 2 extreme solutions.

The first one is a return to the pre-1957 situation: no more EU, return of national currencies, border controls, each country has their own trade, agriculture and macroeconomic policies again.

The second one is the opposite extreme: the EU becomes a nation state. One president, one prime minister, one parliament, one supreme court, one seat in the UN, one embassy in other countries, one army, one team in the sports competitions. The national governments become something like state governments.

In a hypothetical situation in which you can choose only one of these extreme options, which one would you choose?

there is nearly zero chance Hamas lets any more hostages go

Too bad Israel’s first goal wasn’t to try and find and rescue them instead of just punishing all of Gaza instead. They never cared about the hostages, just wanted to do eye for an eye.

I disagree, but do tell us more about how your mind link to powerful people in Israel works and maybe you can convince me.

Plan of attack would be to locate and use special forces and then do more after. They didn’t really get. Reports also revealed Israel knew an attack was coming but thought they were doing such a good job that it was wrong and nothing would happen. Lots of failures, not that much gain but they’ve lost a lot on the world stage.

There were options to target and kill Hamas without further leveling and starving of civilians/attacking foreign aid workers who are trying to avert a famine.

[he would have lost all leverage with Israel.]

I think we all know this won't last and Hamas will break the peace at some point as usual, but if this can buy them a few years of peace again then good job Biden. In addition to it not being true there's a reason Biden didn't start memeing about "gENocIDe" like the blue hair kids wanted, he would have lost all leverage with Israel.

This is at best wrong in good faith and at worst a lie to protect Biden. Biden had tremendous leverage with Israel from the beginning, and their willingness to go along with his plan is just further proof of that. The problem is, for whatever reason, he is used that leverage far too slowly and chose to allow Israel to commit genocide instead.

And by the way, many Democrats who are popping champagne corks over Trump's 34 convictions (which are well deserved) are also continuing to support this man, who committed a crime several orders of magnitude worse but who will never get his just deserts because his crimes represent the establishment position of our current political order.

After Trump's slurry ramble the day after his felony convictions, can his handlers actually risk him in a debate? It was so bad that the networks were commenting on how diminished he was mentally