Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Hatman 🍁]

It looks like the NDP actually won a poll in Ottawa South, despite seeing a decline in vote share from the by-election where we won no polls.

Poll 145:
NDP - 26
PC - 25
Lib - 23
Grn - 8
Comm - 2
Lbtn - 1

Interesting. The poll isn't typically NDP friendly, as it's at the airport. However, we came 2 votes away from winning it in the by-election.

[lilTommy]

The Oshawa win looks even more impressive mapped out...

Marchese and Prue speak out, Basically the party wasn't ready to go, not expecting Wynne to hit the button so soon (should have made demands and force the Liberals to say no... but 20/20 eh), they also rightly point out the Toronto is full of swing Progressives, who pocketbook issues don't play as well as big idea issues... also hurts when the media is lambasting you as right-wing when your pretty much not
... Prue shows how fickle Torontians are and how the Liberals game plan won: "(Prue) said he went door-knocking in two polls before the Liberals tabled their left-leaning budget on May 1, asking if the NDP should reject it. “They said do it,” he recalled. “But once we did, people said, ‘How could you bring the government down? You’re risking Hudak.’ ”

It goes back to my feelings that it was just a little too populist focused for Toronto... and yes the city (old city) is different from much of the rest of the province.

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/06/19/ndp_went_too_far_right_and_wasnt_ready_for_election_defeated_veterans_say.html?utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=twitterfeed

[Hatman 🍁]

If the province adopts the federal boundaries again, it looks like the new riding of Brampton East is tailor made for Jagmeet Singh. It gains some of that NDP area from Brampton-Springdale, while it gets rid of that Liberal area in Bramalea.

[Hatman 🍁]

In Oshawa, some of that NDP area in Whitby-Oshawa would be repatriated into the new Oshawa riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Largest municipalities won by each party:

LIB
Toronto
Ottawa
Mississauga
Brampton
Markham

PC
Whitby
Chatham-Kent
Kawartha Lakes
Caledon
Halton Hills

NDP
Hamilton
London
Windsor
Greater Sudbury
Oshawa

GRN
Melancthon

Maps or it didn't happen.

[Krago]

Niagara:

[Krago]

Transposing the new provincial poll-by-poll results (excluding advance polls) onto the new federal boundaries gives this:

Lib 70 (+12)
PC 31 (+3)
NDP 20 (-1)

The closest notional results would be in Bay of Quinte (95 votes), Barrie—Innisfil (189 votes) and Flamborough—Glanbrook (246 votes).

[Citizen Hats]

Map?

[Krago]

London:




Guelph:




Ottawa:

[Hatman 🍁]

Weird to see so little orange in Ottawa Centre. There is some orange there, right?

[Hatman 🍁]

Transposing the new provincial poll-by-poll results (excluding advance polls) onto the new federal boundaries gives this:

Lib 70 (+12)
PC 31 (+3)
NDP 20 (-1)

The closest notional results would be in Bay of Quinte (95 votes), Barrie—Innisfil (189 votes) and Flamborough—Glanbrook (246 votes).

Is the NDP loss due to Northern Ontario (Timiskaming-Cochrane?)

[Krago]

Weird to see so little orange in Ottawa Centre. There is some orange there, right?

The NDP won seven polls in Ottawa Centre, three in Ottawa West-Nepean, and one each in Ottawa South and Ottawa-Vanier.  They also tied with the Tories in a poll in Ottawa Centre at the Glebe Centre Residence Centre Glebe.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, a whole 7 polls! That is quite surprising.

[lilTommy]

Wow, a whole 7 polls! That is quite surprising.

Sadly the NDP lost almost 8% vs their 2011 vote, at the expense of the Greens and Liberals

[Krago]

Kitchener-Waterloo:




Cambridge:




Scarborough:

[Citizen Hats]

I love you Krago. 

[Krago]

I love you Krago. 

*** blushes ***

[Krago]

Hamilton, Burlington and Oakville:




Mississauga and Etobicoke:




Southern York Region:




North York:

[Krago]

Thunder Bay:




Sudbury:

[DL]

Transposing the new provincial poll-by-poll results (excluding advance polls) onto the new federal boundaries gives this:

Lib 70 (+12)
PC 31 (+3)
NDP 20 (-1)

The closest notional results would be in Bay of Quinte (95 votes), Barrie—Innisfil (189 votes) and Flamborough—Glanbrook (246 votes).

I assume that is due to Northern ontario having one less seat federally - but if Ontario opts to keep the extra seat in the North - then then NDP would be at 21, right? I imagine Brampton East is clearly NDP but what about Brampton Centre or Brampton North?

[lilTommy]

Transposing the new provincial poll-by-poll results (excluding advance polls) onto the new federal boundaries gives this:

Lib 70 (+12)
PC 31 (+3)
NDP 20 (-1)

The closest notional results would be in Bay of Quinte (95 votes), Barrie—Innisfil (189 votes) and Flamborough—Glanbrook (246 votes).

I assume that is due to Northern ontario having one less seat federally - but if Ontario opts to keep the extra seat in the North - then then NDP would be at 21, right? I imagine Brampton East is clearly NDP but what about Brampton Centre or Brampton North?

Based on this election, Brampton North is the best bet, there is a huge concentration of polls in the NE corner of current Brampton-Springdale that could swing it NDP and losses large Liberal polls in the south.

Also... surprisingly given the NDP crumble in Toronto, Shan in Scarborough Rouge River held most of his vote, only losing about 4% highly noticeable when you map it compared with Scar.Southwest which was their other target, losing 7% and not winning any polls (looks like)

[King of Kensington]

The unofficial poll-by-poll results were released today on the Elections Ontario website.

http://wemakevotingeasy.ca/en/general-election-results.aspx

Here's the first poll map:

Thank You!
Very telling... First in Trinity-Spadina the NDP did win some condo land polls, looks like half a dozen, now take out the Community housng polls they won, and probably 2-3 condo polls were won by the NDP, only really won over the Little Italy-Palmerston and Christie Pitts area. They lost the University lands (North Centre of the riding) and the Hipster land, which they needed to hold those areas to offset the North East corner closer to Yorkville and the overall condo land in the south who lean Liberal. Nothing pretty here for the NDP, but not a total loss, the University-chinatown-hipster area is winnable. The By-election will be telling to see what the NDP holds vs the provincial.
Beaches - well obvious this one, Prue held on to East York but not enough to offset the lose of Beaches which trended Liberal in 2011, he had held the Upper Beaches in 2011 but losing it now cost him the riding
Davenport - Schein was the reverse of Trinity lost the Wallace-Emerson/Junction area which he needed to hold since the liberals were already dominant North of St.Clair but held on in the marginally hipster Brockton and Dufferin Grove area... north of Dundas he won, which is more working class while south is the more hipster gentrificated area we know

Parkdale-High Park - it was all Parkdale for DiNovo, she lost any poll she had won in the High Park and Swansea area but opposite to Schein won in the Junction area.
Danforth - Tabuns was lucky he lost all of Riverdale, the wealthier area at any rate, and the west Danfroth, but held Leslieville and Riverside

AMAZING Krago ... when you get some free time, what does Brampton/Mississauga look like? the NDP seemed to have been polling well in Brampton

Great maps Krago and good assessment Tommy.

FWIW, I don't think the argument of "gentrification" really holds in explaining what happened in Toronto.

[DL]

10 or 15 years ago the map of Beaches-East York would have been  the exact reverse - the NDP would have carried the southern half that was all former City of Toronto and the northern half that used to be East York would have been PC/Liberal territory. interesting role reversal.

[King of Kensington]

I'm pretty sure Prue carried East York throughout the time he was MPP.

[DL]

I'm pretty sure Prue carried East York throughout the time he was MPP.

Yeah, I meant before Prue won in a byelection in 2001 - like in 1995 and 1999