Australia 2013 - Results thread

[Platypus]

Yackandandah *massively* for McGowan! Probably the loveliest town in Victoria for an afternoon tea

[morgieb]

Bandt apparently safe according to early figures.

[Talleyrand]

Mirabella isn't safe by any means, as we don't have preference counts yet. Antony Green said that the computer is incorrect in this case, so it's closer than it appears.

It looks like Bandt has held on, if estimated preferences are correct.

[Knives]

I don't understand why people are happy to see Bandt elected?

He's the most smug man. Cath Bowtell is such a nice person.

[morgieb]

I don't understand why people are happy to see Bandt elected?

He's the most smug man.

I stand closer to the Greens than Labor, and I like third-parties to do well, so I'm happy here.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Who are the 'others' in Fisher (PUP?) and could they catch the LNP candidate there (Unlikely.... but still)?

[countydurhamboy]

11 Coalition  gains so far. Corangamite, Deakin, Robertson, Banks, La Trobe, Page, bass, Braddon, Lyons. Lyne and New England from Independent.
Plus a Palmer gain in Fairfax

[morgieb]

Who are the 'others' in Fisher (PUP?) and could they catch the LNP candidate there (Unlikely.... but still)?

Yeah.

I think Brough's primary vote is high enough to be safe, but he may sweat if the PUP overtakes Labor.

[Platypus]

Wodonga Central to Cathy McGowan. Indi's going to be orange!

[y4t7sds12]

Bob Katter is 51.06-48.94 in Kennedy.....

[Vosem]

Who are the 'others' in Fisher (PUP?) and could they catch the LNP candidate there (Unlikely.... but still)?

ALP is ahead of the PUP candidate Bill Schoch on first preferences 21-19.

Greens in third place in Grayndler and Batman -- Melbourne might be safe retain, but otherwise they've been slipping (as predicted).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tasmania results are unfortunate, but the state government is less popular than death, so there you are. At least one seat saved though. Which is something.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Capricornia is fun

[Vosem]

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

Look at the swing though

Oh, wow. Says something to the safety of the seat I just overlooked it.

And Bruce has been moved to 'in doubt ALP ahead', which makes a lot more sense...presumably the safe LIB gain was just a glitch.

And McEwen has been removed from the safe Coalition gains, too. So, seven (Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson) so far (plus Lyne and New England)...

Banks and LaTrobe both called, 'safe LIB gain'. So nine total, since Lindsay is still at likely: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Lindsay back to safe gain. 10 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Kennedy and Melbourne are both 'in doubt 3rd party ahead' right now...Denison and Fairfax, though, are safe...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Flagging up Bendigo as a possible bucket of cold sick...

[Platypus]

Apparentlky the biggest swing in NSW is Fowler... 11.6% to Labor? Whaaa?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm startled at how well the ALP held in Western Sydney overall - good to see Mike Kelly looks like he'll hold

[Vosem]

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

Look at the swing though

Oh, wow. Says something to the safety of the seat I just overlooked it.

And Bruce has been moved to 'in doubt ALP ahead', which makes a lot more sense...presumably the safe LIB gain was just a glitch.

And McEwen has been removed from the safe Coalition gains, too. So, seven (Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson) so far (plus Lyne and New England)...

Banks and LaTrobe both called, 'safe LIB gain'. So nine total, since Lindsay is still at likely: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Lindsay back to safe gain. 10 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Kennedy and Melbourne are both 'in doubt 3rd party ahead' right now...Denison and Fairfax, though, are safe...

Hindmarsh and Lingiari both at safe gain -- both were predicted, but still kind of amazing results. 12 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparentlky the biggest swing in NSW is Fowler... 11.6% to Labor? Whaaa?

People should pay more attention to my posts

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, Mallee. Nat 40/Lib 25/ALP 19...

[Vosem]

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

Look at the swing though

Oh, wow. Says something to the safety of the seat I just overlooked it.

And Bruce has been moved to 'in doubt ALP ahead', which makes a lot more sense...presumably the safe LIB gain was just a glitch.

And McEwen has been removed from the safe Coalition gains, too. So, seven (Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson) so far (plus Lyne and New England)...

Banks and LaTrobe both called, 'safe LIB gain'. So nine total, since Lindsay is still at likely: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Lindsay back to safe gain. 10 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Kennedy and Melbourne are both 'in doubt 3rd party ahead' right now...Denison and Fairfax, though, are safe...

Hindmarsh and Lingiari both at safe gain -- both were predicted, but still kind of amazing results. 12 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

And, heading back east to Sydney for a second, Reid is now a safe gain. So now Sydney has pretty much been entirely filled in (except Barton, that's still close; kind of amazing, it was thought of as reasonably safe ALP), since Greenway and Parramatta are rated 'safe ALP hold'. 13 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Reid, Robertson.

Amazingly, the only seat in all of Queensland that looks likelier than not to switch in any direction is Fairfax -- the 2010 2PP numbers are holding close to steady. Capricornia and Petrie are insanely close, but Moreton seems to be actually swinging towards the ALP. Some excitement about Leichhardt earlier, but that looks like a definite LNP hold.

So, Mallee. Nat 40/Lib 25/ALP 19...

The computer can't handle it, it's still computing Nat/ALP numbers...that looks like a Crewther win will be being predicted once it switches to Nat/Lib.

[Platypus]

Mitchell edging ahead, but result won't be known tonight.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Be careful with the calls - in practice they're very provisional in nature. It's not unusual for a seat to be called and to be eventually won by 'tuther lot.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

So, Mallee. Nat 40/Lib 25/ALP 19...

Looking at the detailed breakdown it looks like that might be decided on PUP/KAP and - yes - Sex Party preferences. Anyone know where those go?

[Hifly]

Apparentlky the biggest swing in NSW is Fowler... 11.6% to Labor? Whaaa?

As I thought may happen. The great thing about Labor holding up in Western Sydney is that they'll at least keep their right-wing base in parliament.  Although it's a shame John Murphy won't still be there.