Australia 2013 - Results thread

[Vosem]

It's looking pretty good. The ABC electorates list is already predicting Braddon (expected) and Page (narrowly Labor in 2010, but in a part of NSW where the swing was expected to be small) as Coalition gains.

[Vosem]

Four gains already projected:
Bass
Braddon
Corangamite
Page

Also Lyne, but then there was never any doubt there.

What's the best website to go to track results on individual seats?

I'm on ABC, but you're actually Australian...

[Vosem]

Four gains already projected:
Bass
Braddon
Corangamite
Page

Also Lyne, but then there was never any doubt there.

Lyons is now 'safe Coalition gain'...that makes five...

[Vosem]

Four gains already projected:
Bass
Braddon
Corangamite
Page

Also Lyne, but then there was never any doubt there.

Lyons is now 'safe Coalition gain'...that makes five...

Lindsay makes six...New England has the same rating, but then it was never in any doubt...

[Vosem]

Bruce seems to be rated 'safe LIB gain', but I think that might be a glitch...

[Vosem]

Four gains already projected:
Bass
Braddon
Corangamite
Page

Also Lyne, but then there was never any doubt there.

Lyons is now 'safe Coalition gain'...that makes five...

Lindsay makes six...New England has the same rating, but then it was never in any doubt...

Robertson makes seven. Bruce and McEwen (both 'safe LIB gain', amazingly) make eight and nine -- one swing like that might be a glitch, but I don't think two Melbourne suburbs projected like that probably aren't...

[Vosem]

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

[Vosem]

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

Look at the swing though

Oh, wow. Says something to the safety of the seat I just overlooked it.

And Bruce has been moved to 'in doubt ALP ahead', which makes a lot more sense...presumably the safe LIB gain was just a glitch.

And McEwen has been removed from the safe Coalition gains, too. So, seven (Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson) so far (plus Lyne and New England)...

[Vosem]

Deakin's been projected as a safe gain, but Lindsay's actually been moved down to just 'Likely LIB gain', so the total is still just seven.

[Vosem]

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

Look at the swing though

Oh, wow. Says something to the safety of the seat I just overlooked it.

And Bruce has been moved to 'in doubt ALP ahead', which makes a lot more sense...presumably the safe LIB gain was just a glitch.

And McEwen has been removed from the safe Coalition gains, too. So, seven (Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson) so far (plus Lyne and New England)...

Banks and LaTrobe both called, 'safe LIB gain'. So nine total, since Lindsay is still at likely: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

[Vosem]

Fairfax just switched straight from 'safe LNP retain' to 'safe PUP gain'...

Melbourne is at 'safe GRN retain'...

Kennedy is at 'likely KAP retain' -- considering the last several results from there, a close race there even if Katter wins is an amazing result...

[Vosem]

Who are the 'others' in Fisher (PUP?) and could they catch the LNP candidate there (Unlikely.... but still)?

ALP is ahead of the PUP candidate Bill Schoch on first preferences 21-19.

Greens in third place in Grayndler and Batman -- Melbourne might be safe retain, but otherwise they've been slipping (as predicted).

[Vosem]

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

Look at the swing though

Oh, wow. Says something to the safety of the seat I just overlooked it.

And Bruce has been moved to 'in doubt ALP ahead', which makes a lot more sense...presumably the safe LIB gain was just a glitch.

And McEwen has been removed from the safe Coalition gains, too. So, seven (Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson) so far (plus Lyne and New England)...

Banks and LaTrobe both called, 'safe LIB gain'. So nine total, since Lindsay is still at likely: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Lindsay back to safe gain. 10 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Kennedy and Melbourne are both 'in doubt 3rd party ahead' right now...Denison and Fairfax, though, are safe...

[Vosem]

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

Look at the swing though

Oh, wow. Says something to the safety of the seat I just overlooked it.

And Bruce has been moved to 'in doubt ALP ahead', which makes a lot more sense...presumably the safe LIB gain was just a glitch.

And McEwen has been removed from the safe Coalition gains, too. So, seven (Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson) so far (plus Lyne and New England)...

Banks and LaTrobe both called, 'safe LIB gain'. So nine total, since Lindsay is still at likely: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Lindsay back to safe gain. 10 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Kennedy and Melbourne are both 'in doubt 3rd party ahead' right now...Denison and Fairfax, though, are safe...

Hindmarsh and Lingiari both at safe gain -- both were predicted, but still kind of amazing results. 12 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

[Vosem]

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

Look at the swing though

Oh, wow. Says something to the safety of the seat I just overlooked it.

And Bruce has been moved to 'in doubt ALP ahead', which makes a lot more sense...presumably the safe LIB gain was just a glitch.

And McEwen has been removed from the safe Coalition gains, too. So, seven (Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson) so far (plus Lyne and New England)...

Banks and LaTrobe both called, 'safe LIB gain'. So nine total, since Lindsay is still at likely: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Lindsay back to safe gain. 10 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Kennedy and Melbourne are both 'in doubt 3rd party ahead' right now...Denison and Fairfax, though, are safe...

Hindmarsh and Lingiari both at safe gain -- both were predicted, but still kind of amazing results. 12 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

And, heading back east to Sydney for a second, Reid is now a safe gain. So now Sydney has pretty much been entirely filled in (except Barton, that's still close; kind of amazing, it was thought of as reasonably safe ALP), since Greenway and Parramatta are rated 'safe ALP hold'. 13 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Reid, Robertson.

Amazingly, the only seat in all of Queensland that looks likelier than not to switch in any direction is Fairfax -- the 2010 2PP numbers are holding close to steady. Capricornia and Petrie are insanely close, but Moreton seems to be actually swinging towards the ALP. Some excitement about Leichhardt earlier, but that looks like a definite LNP hold.

So, Mallee. Nat 40/Lib 25/ALP 19...

The computer can't handle it, it's still computing Nat/ALP numbers...that looks like a Crewther win will be being predicted once it switches to Nat/Lib.

[Vosem]

Last update has Petrie shifting from 'likely ALP retain' to 'in doubt LIB ahead'. Capricornia and Petrie the only seats that really seem to still be competitive in Queensland, since it seems Katter has narrowly survived the single most ferocious swing in the nation (15% against him -- short of the necessary 18%) and that Palmer has very narrowly carried Fairfax.

In Sydney, only Barton still too close to call, along with Dobell outside of Sydney up the coast. Amazingly, another unreally close seat, Solomon, might be the only seat in the country to shift from the Coalition to Labor even as the Northern Territory's other seat decisively switches in the other direction.

[Vosem]

ABC has the first Senate results in for Tasmania (only 7.49% of the vote so far):

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/results/senate/tas/

There's results from NSW too, but the Coalition (presumably by accident) is marked as having gotten 0 votes. Currently 3 Labor, 1 Greens, 1 LDP, 1 Australian Democrats.

More seriously, Tassie looks like 2 ALP, 2 Libs, 1 PUP, and 1 Greens, though obviously this could all shift very radically -- at one point in the preference count, the PUP is beating the Shooters & Fishers by just 700 votes.

[Vosem]

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

Look at the swing though

Oh, wow. Says something to the safety of the seat I just overlooked it.

And Bruce has been moved to 'in doubt ALP ahead', which makes a lot more sense...presumably the safe LIB gain was just a glitch.

And McEwen has been removed from the safe Coalition gains, too. So, seven (Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson) so far (plus Lyne and New England)...

Banks and LaTrobe both called, 'safe LIB gain'. So nine total, since Lindsay is still at likely: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Lindsay back to safe gain. 10 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Kennedy and Melbourne are both 'in doubt 3rd party ahead' right now...Denison and Fairfax, though, are safe...

Hindmarsh and Lingiari both at safe gain -- both were predicted, but still kind of amazing results. 12 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

And, heading back east to Sydney for a second, Reid is now a safe gain. So now Sydney has pretty much been entirely filled in (except Barton, that's still close; kind of amazing, it was thought of as reasonably safe ALP), since Greenway and Parramatta are rated 'safe ALP hold'. 13 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Reid, Robertson.

And Reid seems to have been demoted to 'in doubt' from safe, so take it off that list; the number is back to 12.

[Vosem]

In addition to the Tassie numbers (2 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 PUP, 1 GRN), we have some serious Senate results from Queensland now -- 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 PUP. Those Labor preferences that were meant for the KAP never did show up; the KAP is out before the ALP surplus is distributed. (In fact, it never is; the last seat is going ALP). Total of 5 Coalition, 4 ALP, 2 PUP, 1 Green.

And in the imaginary NSW numbers, looks like One Nation has replaced the Australian Democrats; 3 ALP; 1 Green; 1 LDP; 1 One Nation. These are just for the lulz, of course.

[Vosem]

More Senate results: in the ACT, the ALP gets 1, while for the other the Liberals are under a quota but nevertheless win the last seat from the Greens by what is currently a margin of 282 votes; basically, Animal Justice and Rise Up Australia preferences. Lol.

And a similar result in the NT; the CLP gets 1, while the ALP falls under a quota for the other but wins due to Sex Party preferences.

So, Tas+Qld+Territories, so far: 7 Coalition, 6 ALP, 2 PUP, 1 Green. Some of those are just by several hundred votes, though.

[Vosem]

I believe Antony Green said earlier Mirabella's in serious trouble if her primary's below 45. As for Senate, I only hope for Coalition control and Sinodonos' reelection.

Well, NSW results as being reported right now:

1   Bob CARR   Australian Labor Party
2   Doug CAMERON   Australian Labor Party
3   Ursula STEPHENS   Australian Labor Party
4   Cate FAEHRMANN   Australian Greens
5   David LEYONHJELM   Liberal Democratic Party
6   Pauline HANSON   One Nation

You'd better be hoping for Marise Payne's reelection...

EDIT: And now here are Victoria's Senate results, from the same universe the NSW ones are coming from:

1   Gavin MARSHALL   Australian Labor Party
2   Janet RICE   Australian Greens
3   Jacinta COLLINS   Australian Labor Party
4   Mehmet TILLEM   Australian Labor Party
5   Fiona PATTEN   Australian Sex Party
6   Barry MICHAEL   Palmer United Party

Coalition, 0 votes.

[Vosem]

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

Look at the swing though

Oh, wow. Says something to the safety of the seat I just overlooked it.

And Bruce has been moved to 'in doubt ALP ahead', which makes a lot more sense...presumably the safe LIB gain was just a glitch.

And McEwen has been removed from the safe Coalition gains, too. So, seven (Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson) so far (plus Lyne and New England)...

Banks and LaTrobe both called, 'safe LIB gain'. So nine total, since Lindsay is still at likely: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Lindsay back to safe gain. 10 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Kennedy and Melbourne are both 'in doubt 3rd party ahead' right now...Denison and Fairfax, though, are safe...

Hindmarsh and Lingiari both at safe gain -- both were predicted, but still kind of amazing results. 12 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

And, heading back east to Sydney for a second, Reid is now a safe gain. So now Sydney has pretty much been entirely filled in (except Barton, that's still close; kind of amazing, it was thought of as reasonably safe ALP), since Greenway and Parramatta are rated 'safe ALP hold'. 13 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Reid, Robertson.

And Reid seems to have been demoted to 'in doubt' from safe, so take it off that list; the number is back to 12.

And now Petrie has become 'safe LNP gain'; the first seat to switch between the major parties in Queensland. The 13 gains right now: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Petrie, Robertson.

[Vosem]

Really got it wrong in Tassie. Oops.

WA -  the WA Nationals winning Durack and O'Connor is a bit of a shame, as the Liberal candidates were both fantastic.

The Liberals just took the lead in both seats -- by 1.0% in Durack and 0.4% in O'Connor.

[Vosem]

In South Australia the Nick Xenophon Group is ahead (pretty solidly, too, 24-20) of the ALP!

[Vosem]

Please, trust a Victorian - ignore Senate results until at least Wednesday

But they're so tantalizingly chaotic

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

Look at the swing though

Oh, wow. Says something to the safety of the seat I just overlooked it.

And Bruce has been moved to 'in doubt ALP ahead', which makes a lot more sense...presumably the safe LIB gain was just a glitch.

And McEwen has been removed from the safe Coalition gains, too. So, seven (Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson) so far (plus Lyne and New England)...

Banks and LaTrobe both called, 'safe LIB gain'. So nine total, since Lindsay is still at likely: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Lindsay back to safe gain. 10 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Kennedy and Melbourne are both 'in doubt 3rd party ahead' right now...Denison and Fairfax, though, are safe...

Hindmarsh and Lingiari both at safe gain -- both were predicted, but still kind of amazing results. 12 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

And, heading back east to Sydney for a second, Reid is now a safe gain. So now Sydney has pretty much been entirely filled in (except Barton, that's still close; kind of amazing, it was thought of as reasonably safe ALP), since Greenway and Parramatta are rated 'safe ALP hold'. 13 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Reid, Robertson.

And Reid seems to have been demoted to 'in doubt' from safe, so take it off that list; the number is back to 12.

And now Petrie has become 'safe LNP gain'; the first seat to switch between the major parties in Queensland. The 13 gains right now: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Petrie, Robertson.

And Capricornia has become 'safe LNP gain' as well. 14 gains: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Capricornia, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Petrie, Robertson.