Bush +4 says Zogby (user search)
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  Bush +4 says Zogby (search mode)
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Author Topic: Bush +4 says Zogby  (Read 1764 times)
The Vorlon
Vorlon
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Posts: 4,660


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

« on: October 15, 2004, 09:49:39 AM »
« edited: October 15, 2004, 09:53:05 AM by The Vorlon »

Maybe Zogby forgot to take his lithium this morning.. I don't know Smiley

Todays number makes, well, no sense at all.



The october 11th sample was very strong for Bush, On October 10th he was down 3, and suddenly was even - a swing of 3% in one day.

This samle that moved Bush 3% rolled off the average last night and was replaced by a sample that swung things another 3% towards Bush.

<<shakes head, walks way, quietly laughs>>

Zogby is not a poll... It's is a religion or a cult.

You believe... or you do not.

If you try to figure it out, you will go mad.

Smiley

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The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,660


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2004, 09:50:55 AM »

Yes. I am very worried.
I take Zogby seriously.

Ok.. Smiley
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The Vorlon
Vorlon
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*****
Posts: 4,660


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2004, 10:06:48 AM »
« Edited: October 15, 2004, 10:08:28 AM by The Vorlon »

Yes. I am very worried. I take Zogby seriously. Rasmussen's  poll is close to the Zogby one.

A very bad day.


Shira, if these GOP types actually deep in their hearts believed Zogby was a a good poll, they would be happy now.

GOPers to a person are laughing this result off.

That says something.

If I go to the racing track and ramdomly pick 2 horses in each race, there is a good chance one horse of the over the course of the evening will win the race.

Does this make me a good horse race handicapper...?

Again... look at the numbers...

20 of Zogby's last 45 TELEPHONE polls have missed the margin of error.

That's twenty, as in 2 x 10...

as in One Score..

He misses the margin of error almost half the time !!!!!!

These are his TELEPHONE polls BTW, the less said about his internet polls the better Smiley

In 2002 his AVERAGE error was almost 6%.

Yes he got the 2000 Presidential race within 2% (as did 9 other pollsters BTW)

In 1988 I bet $2 on "Lucky Strike" in the 4th at Queens park and won $6.15

Wanna come to the race track with me and bet your money based on my advice?

The man's polls has been a disaster for 4 years.

20 out of 45 outside MOE
20 out of 45 outside MOE
20 out of 45 outside MOE
20 out of 45 outside MOE


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The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,660


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2004, 10:58:55 AM »


The Rasmussen poll is back to exactly where is was four-days ago...which leads me to believe it is just "de-blipping".  But the Zogby poll does worry me a little, because it now seems to show three very strong Bush days out of the last four.  I'm certainly not overly reliant on either of the polls, but they are data points in the larger picture, and they are the only post-debate data points we have so far.

Polls...

Ignore then one by one...

Trust them by the Dozen...
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The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,660


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2004, 11:10:10 AM »


The Rasmussen poll is back to exactly where is was four-days ago...which leads me to believe it is just "de-blipping".  But the Zogby poll does worry me a little, because it now seems to show three very strong Bush days out of the last four.  I'm certainly not overly reliant on either of the polls, but they are data points in the larger picture, and they are the only post-debate data points we have so far.

Rasmussen has (I think) a bunch of very weird samples in the mix right now.  The breakout of support by GOP/Dem/Indy has be bouncing around in bizarre ways.  It is either a massive amount of random noise (always my first guess) of something major is re-aligning in the electorate.

Normally I have Rasmussen pretty well sorted out, but right now I just don't know Smiley
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