Who will win Iowa?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I voted Clinton because she needed more votes.

F-ck Donald Trump.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I still predict Clinton. This is probably Trump's high crest.

Unless he "defies expectations" at the debate by saying REMOTELY on message and avoids a Nazi salute or calling Hillary an expletive. The odds of which are at least 50/50, so....

No idea. Based on current polling and demographics I'd say Trump. But ground-game delivered Iowa to Obama by a stronger margin than his national one. If Clinton wins nationally by more than 3, she'll get it.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I still predict Clinton. This is probably Trump's high crest.

Unless he "defies expectations" at the debate by saying REMOTELY on message and avoids a Nazi salute or calling Hillary an expletive. The odds of which are at least 50/50, so....

No idea. Based on current polling and demographics I'd say Trump. But ground-game delivered Iowa to Obama by a stronger margin than his national one. If Clinton wins nationally by more than 3, she'll get it.

We'll see won't we.

We will indeed, but it is equally stupid to doubt that Clinton is underdog in Iowa (where she currently trailing by 3-4%; it was tie/narrow Clinton even when it was Clinton +8 nationally) as to doubt that Trump is underdog in GE.

Btw did I ever call you stupid?

IDK, probably indirectly.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I never called you stupid. I called you an attention-seeking contrarian troll, indirectly.

I'm saying that if an election were held now, Trump would win it. But given IA's recent trajectory, I'm saying that a state that was broadly more D than the nation by 1, that it's likely to be R+2-3 than the nation this year (given the demographics).

Noting that I didn't say that without question Hillary would win it, I do think strongly, given how Obama out-performed in 2012 (Romney's RCP was basically right on the money and Obama was under-egged by 3%), that the D ground-game is strong and if Hillary has a decent national lead (as I wrote, 3%+, then I think she'll win it.

As someone who's been here five minutes, you seem determined to consider me, someone who has been here a decade, a random red-avatar hack. That's your prerogative.

Did you never said ugly things about Trump's supporter. Cause I am one of them.

2012.. bla-bla-bla... ground-game. In 2008, the latest polls (including well-respected Survey USA) showed Obama +15; he won by 10. Does it mean that McCain hade a superior ground-game. Likely not.

You cannot cherry-pick one year a extrapolate it like you and many other Red hacks do. Yeah, in 2012 polls underestimated Obama, but not in 2014, 2010 or 2008. Did ground-game caused 2012's underestimation? Probably slightly, but we don't know it.

Could you ground-game gut feeling be right. Yes, but so could mine (Shy Trump Effect).