Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

9:30 Eastern for all of them! It's in my blog, guys

Isn't that rather early for the Alberta ridings?... that's what 7:30, well if you weren't going to get low voter turnout the monday of a long wknd (with tmr as a holiday) you are now closing the polls 2hrs earlier then a regular election, well done

Alberta and Ontario always have the same poll closing times in federal elections. Elections Canada tries to synchronize the provinces as much as possible to minimize people leaking the results.

[Hatman 🍁]

Polls have closed, folks!

[Hatman 🍁]

1st poll in Macleod is in - and it's Liberal!

[Hatman 🍁]

Libs still have a large lead in Fort Mac with 3 polls in.

[Hatman 🍁]

Tories now ahead in both Alberta ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

Fort Mac is the one to watch it appears (no surprise there)

[Hatman 🍁]

Trudeau is for real, guys

[Hatman 🍁]

Trinity-Spadina has 349 polling stations! I never saw a riding with so much.

Mapping it is going to be a nightmare. Even with GIS help.

BTW with all that talk about Kinsella being an NDPer, he really seems to be happy with the results tonight.

[Hatman 🍁]

Kevin Clarke is beating the Greens in Agincourt.

Meanwhile, the Greens aren't too far behind the Tories in Trinity-Spadina.

[Hatman 🍁]

Trinity-Spadina has 349 polling stations! I never saw a riding with so much.

Mapping it is going to be a nightmare. Even with GIS help.

 

Why's that?

Adding up all the split polls (A+B). I guess if you have some sort of a macro to that, you'd be set. But for those of us less technically inclined, it's a bit of a tedious task.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP in 5th place in Macleod

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP in 5th place in Macleod

that's absolutely brutal. How'd they manage that?

Well, the Tory candidate is a Red Tory, so clearly some very blue Tories jumped ship.

[Hatman 🍁]

when do the poll-by-polls usually come out federal elections?

In a few months.

Trinity-Spadina has 349 polling stations! I never saw a riding with so much.

Mapping it is going to be a nightmare. Even with GIS help.

I did a quick check comparing poll location for Trinity Spadina from 2011 election to the by-election. It looks like they have used the same poll divisions.  For example Toronto Island used poll #181 for both elections. They might have more splits. ie (120A, 120B.)  Normally a poll will be spilt by last name. 120A - A-M & 120B N-Z.

They don't normally re-draw the map for by-elections, so you're probably right. I know when I was looking up polls for my blog post that they had not changed either.

[Hatman 🍁]

Do you think there's a chance that the islands weren't the NDP's best poll? I wouldn't take that bet.

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe, but Adam Vaughan's ward doesn't even cover Toronto Island.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories have been very successful in courting the Chinese vote in BC. They've had a harder time doing so in Ontario, but there has been some evidence that the Chinese vote is trending Tory. The provincial election was a good indicator of that. The Tories did better in the Chinese parts of Agincourt than in the White parts.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories have been very successful in courting the Chinese vote in BC. They've had a harder time doing so in Ontario, but there has been some evidence that the Chinese vote is trending Tory. The provincial election was a good indicator of that. The Tories did better in the Chinese parts of Agincourt than in the White parts.

People who should be voting for us but aren't.

[Hatman 🍁]

Filipinos? I don't think so. But then again, the only strong Filipino neighbourhoods I know of are in north Winnipeg.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories have been very successful in courting the Chinese vote in BC. They've had a harder time doing so in Ontario, but there has been some evidence that the Chinese vote is trending Tory. The provincial election was a good indicator of that. The Tories did better in the Chinese parts of Agincourt than in the White parts.

People who should be voting for us but aren't.

Thought I made my sarcasm clear enough, but obviously not... Yes I realize that economics is not the be all and end all.

My annoyance comes from the fact that the Tories aren't necessarily the best party for the middle class in terms of economics either.

[Hatman 🍁]

Indeed; Liberal gains out west will be constrained to large urban centres, be they Edmonton, Calgary or Winnipeg.

[Hatman 🍁]

They had some seats in the province from 1993 until 2006.

Not outside Edmonton.

Indeed. In 2007 it was seen as Mulcair's strength and a very weak Liberal nominee.

I don't think think the orange wave would've happened if Mulcair hadn't won in 2007. Sure, it didn't happen in the following election, but it was huge. It put the NDP on the map in Quebec. Remember, as recently as 2004, the NDP was lucky to get over 10% of the vote in any riding - and in 1993 they were finishing behind the Natural Law Party in many ridings.

Indeed; Liberal gains out west will be constrained to large urban centres, be they Edmonton, Calgary or Winnipeg.

Based on the new ridings for the next general election, what are the best targets in Edmonton and Calgary?

In Edmonton, I believe the NDP is targeting Edmonton Griesbach (essentially Edmonton East). Both the NDP and Liberals have a shot at Edmonton Centre. The Liberals can probably win any riding in Edmonton, really - except Stratchcona, Griesbach and the new rural-urban hybrid riding of Edmonton-Wetaskiwin or the suburban/exurban/rural Sturgeon River.


Liberal targets in Edmonton (results in 2011):
Edmonton Centre - 23.7%
Edmonton Riverbend - 14.5%
Edmonton West -12.5%
Edmonton Mill Woods - 11.7%
St. Albert-Edmonton - 10.8%
Edmonton Manning - 9.1%
Edmonton Griesbach - 6.6%
Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan - 6.5%
Edmonton-Wetaskiwin - 5.7%
Edmonton-Sturgeon River - 5.5%
Edmonton Strathcona - 2.9%

In Calgary, I think the Liberals have a decent shot at Calgary Centre, Calgary Skyview and Calgary Confederation.

Targets:
Calgary Skyview - 28.6%
Calgary Centre - 19.1%
Calgary Confederation - 17.6%
Calgary Forest Lawn - 17.5%
Calgary Signal Hill - 15.4%
Calgary Rocky Ridge - 12.7%
Calgary Nose Hill - 11.0%
Calgary Heritage - 7.5%
Calgary Shepard - 7.2%
Calgary Midnapore - 6.4%

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Not much difference. It went from 53.5% to 53.7% NDP.

NDP targets:

Edmonton Strathcona - 53.7%
Edmonton Griesbach - 37.5%
Edmonton Manning - 26.6%
Edmonton Centre - 25.8%
Edmonton Mill Woods - 25.4%
Edmonton Riverbend - 21.2%
St. Albert-Edmonton - 20.1%
Edmonton West - 19.5%
Edmonton-Wetaskiwin - 14.3%
Sturgeon River - 13.0%
Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan - 11.2%

[Hatman 🍁]

Much counting of chickens before they hatch here. Not necessarily a good idea.

Jesus, Al. This forum wouldn't exist if it wasn't for wild political speculation over a year before an election day.

[Hatman 🍁]

If you want to know where the Liberals have a chance in Alberta, you can always peruse past provincial election maps. Calgary-McCall is the Liberal provincial riding, and has been trending Liberal for quite some time. They finally won it for the first time in 2008.

[Hatman 🍁]

According to Alice Funke, who got a leak of the poll by poll results, the Liberals won the Fort McMurray part of Fort McMurray-Athabasca.

Here is a map she made:

[Hatman 🍁]

Not surprising; the Liberal campaign seemed to be pretty focused there, and Yurdiga wasn't from Fort McMurray.  Does it say anywhere what the results were from the part of the riding that will make up Fort McMurray--Cold Lake in 2015?

That area is pretty Conservative, meaning the new riding would've gone Conservative if you add the areas together.

Alice has another map:



Similar results as in the provincial election. Also note that Mike Layton represents Ward 19 (western half) while Vaughan represented Ward 20 (eastern half).