So, to sum up what happened the day before, first, I was wrong, but it was the factors I mentioned as a problem which caused that.
If you recall I said that
turnout will decide this race especially black turn out. I do not anticipate any significant inroads into the black vote for Jindal despite several high-profile endorsements from black leaders. (like Mayor Nagin of New Orleans)
What could happen however is that black turnout may be low. Blanco hasn't given them any huge reason to turn out FOR her. The only reason to turn out is to vote AGAINST Jindal. If they feel they don't have a good enough reason to fear the GOP candidate winning; that would assure Jindals victory. As the black turnout goes up Jindals chances go down as Blanco has been making inroads among voters a GOP candidate would be expected to carry and Foster did by large margins the last time. White women especially married women head this list for obvious reasons.
Its still not a done deal but I do see a slight momentum for Jindal
Black turnout WAS a decider. In the primary, only 45 percent of the state's black voters turned out, and that too with 2-3 candidates that blacks strongly supported in the race. It was believed that it would fall below 40% for the run-off.
Saturday, that rate climbed to 46 percent. Blanco won 91 percent support among those black voters and that decided the race.
As I predicted Blanco did make gains among white voters of whom she polled 40%.............. Wayyyy higher than the last gubernatorial election.
And I do believe until the final week Jindal DID have the momentum. He lost in at the last moment because his campaign wasn't savvy enough
To quote from an article which I agree with;
Blanco and the Democratic Party also went after Jindal hard on his lack of political experience and the cuts that were made while he was head of the Department of Health and Hospitals, suggesting that he cared more about the bottom line than about the welfare of the state's residents.
Jindal's supporters agreed with the Blanco camp that the deadly flaw in their candidate's campaign was that he didn't react quickly or aggressively enough to Blanco's attack ads in the final days.
"Obviously you have to respond when you're attacked," said Rep. Steve Scalise, R-Metairie. "He was attacked on a number of fronts, and I don't think the response was quick enough."
Jindal made a tactical mistake in not answering the criticism of his record except to accuse Blanco of running a negative campaign, which after time smacked of whining.
Thus I still believe that this was an avoidable loss but no matter, there will be another day for Bobby Jindal :-)