*Official Election 2005 Results Thread*

[Sam Spade]

Id really like to know where these results are comming from?

Also, how are Kilgore and Kaine running vis-a-vis Lt. Gov and AG candidates?

I can't view the sites because I'm on sort of a slow computer right now, so I'm really only just taking in the info.

[Sam Spade]

J W Kilgore     Republican    174,724    63.90%
  T M Kaine     Democratic    95,086    34.78%
  H R Potts Jr     Independent    3,433    1.26%
  Write Ins          185    0.07%

Big jump for Kilgore there.  Where were those votes coming in from?

[Sam Spade]

Just as an early observation:  Potts seems to be underproducing the numbers that he got in the polling data.

I overcounted him at 2.3%, I think.

[Sam Spade]

Precincts Reporting: 596 of 2426 (24.57%)
Registered Voters: 4,452,012   Total Voting: 565,860   Voter Turnout: 12.71 %
 Candidates     Party    Vote Totals    Percentage
  J W Kilgore     Republican    309,193    54.64%
  T M Kaine     Democratic    246,111    43.49%
  H R Potts Jr     Independent    10,123    1.79%

Gerry Daly (nickshepDem/Alcon alert) is saying that the race in Virginia will be a nailbiter as Kilgore is overperforming Earley and underperforming Bush 2004 in the precincts he has examined.

[Sam Spade]

Thanks Sam.

But I really dont understand what Gerry is trying to say.  Kilgore is overperforming, but underperforming in relation to Bush's numbers.  Is that a good thing or a bad thing for Kilgore?

He's saying that Kilgore is overperforming compared to Earley 2001, Wa'rner's opposition.

Still early, of course. (no pun intended)

[Sam Spade]

The reason Kilgore was ahead earlier is because the results from Brunswick County were off, they had Kilgore getting 98% of the vote with 844% turnout.

The results have now been correct and Kaine is up by 6.5% overall:

http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/nov2005/025.htm

Thanks for the clarification.  I was sort of confused.

[Sam Spade]

Going to have to go out now.  Oh well, we'll probably know the results for sure when I get back.

[Sam Spade]

Good, well it at least appears my predictions were close to correct.

The standard deviation that the Democrats should be counting to the anti-Bush vote is probably the plus margin to the Democrats from my expected totals in NJ/VA.

I know there's nothing scientific about it, but it feels about right to me.

I am also not surprised the Ohio ballot measures are going down.  I read through the actual language of the initiatives yesterday and I swear it made no sense to me.  If it makes no sense to me, then it certainly makes no sense to anyone else and people vote against what they don't understand.

[Sam Spade]

I really don't see what the big deal is with being happy over this victory in the face of uncertainty.

It's not just being happy. Just wait until the blogs start going crazy, saying that this will completely destroy the GOP in 2006.

Phil, what else do you expect them to say?

You need to grow thicker skin than that.

[Sam Spade]

Texas results are coming in.

Needless to say, the banning same-sex marriage initiative will get about 75%-80% and Houston's incumbent mayor Bill White (who was a crappy chair of the state Democratic party, but an extremely good mayor) will get about 90%.

[Sam Spade]

The only real major races left to decide are the AG race in Virginia and the California ballot propositions.  When do the polls close out in California? (a jfern question)

[Sam Spade]

The only real major races left to decide are the AG race in Virginia and the California ballot propositions.  When do the polls close out in California? (a jfern question)

8 PT, 11 ET

Thanks, fern, fezzy and andrew.  

[Sam Spade]

Phil, you truly are a survivor.  Keep up the fight!

Black power salute.

lol

[Sam Spade]

Ferrar may have broken 40%. A lot of people were predicting he'd do much worse.

I know I was one who did.  

However, the turnout today was ridiculously light, maybe the lowest ever for a mayoral race.  Whenever turnout is unexpectedly low, it can screw up polling for the results.

[Sam Spade]

The GOP ground game in Virginia is indeed much better, but they are also a tad disspirited right now taking much of that edge away. - Kaine, by perhaps a bit more than expected - will not be a blowout, but margin of victory might creep up to maybe 5% or so.  

Corzine will successfully purchase a Governors seat, to match the Senate seat he purchased previously.  The GOP always over polls in Jersey, so I'll say Corzine by 7. - If "None of the above" was on the ballot in Jersey it would win in a walk.

Candidates  Party Percentage

  T M Kaine  Democratic  - 51.64%
  J W Kilgore  - 46.08%

Margin = 5.56%

Missed Jersey pretty badly however.  Expect 7, got 11.

You win some, you lose some.  At least you got the winners right, as did I.  

[Sam Spade]

I had a pretty awful day at work, so I was really hoping once I got home I would see that Kaine pulled an upset and I would feel better. I do.

Kaine winning was not really an upset, considering the last two weeks of polling in which every poll showed him ahead, albeit not by great margins.

[Sam Spade]

Early opinion on the Cali Props:

76-80 will obviously be defeated.

75 will be tight.

74 looks like a possibility to pass now, but will fail.

73 is iffy, but won't predict right now, because of the Hispanic vote.

[Sam Spade]

http://vote2005.ss.ca.gov/Returns/prop/00.htm

[Sam Spade]

And again the nail-biter of the night: with all but 29 precincts counted in the VA AG race the gap is just 0.12% percentage points, or just 2,294 votes: 947,455 (R) vs 945,161 (D).  Still, it looks like most remaining precincts should be Rep leaning (though 3 precincts in Arlington county are also pending!).  

Obviously, a recount will be occurring then.

[Sam Spade]

For AKSaber.

San Francisco

Proposition H Firearm Ban
Requires a simple majority.

 Choice Votes %
 Yes 21,147 58.67%
 No 14,889 41.33%

http://www.sfgate.com/politics/election/2005nov/sanfrancisco.shtml

This is still absentee ballots.

[Sam Spade]

73,74,75 are getting closer and closer.

  73 Y    Minor's Pregnancy          1,154,794  51.2   1,101,061  48.8  Map

  74 Y    Teacher Tenure             1,141,370  50.2   1,134,089  49.8  Map

  75 Y    Public Union Dues          1,224,055  53.9   1,047,255  46.1  Map

  76 N    Spending/Funding             966,882  42.6   1,302,433  57.4  Map

  77 N    Redistricting              1,026,741  45.6   1,221,869  54.4  Map

  78 N    Rx Drug Discounts            960,745  42.9   1,278,166  57.1  Map

  79 N    Rx Drug Rebates              848,879  38.1   1,376,016  61.9  Map

  80 N    Electric Regulation          761,345  34.8   1,423,324  65.2

Not really a surprise if you look at what was reporting. I expect 73 and 74 to go down, leaving only 1 of the 6 Propositions Arnold supported, Prop 75,  with a chance of passing.

I agree with you, except that I want to see how Prop. 73 fares in Los Angeles County before declaring it going down.

[Sam Spade]

I just did a VA Gov map - let me know if there are inaccuracies:

Kilgore really underperformed in SE Virginia (Virginia Beach, Norfolk), the Richmond suburbs and NoVA.  He did pretty well in SW Virginia, but since he's from there, I'm not surprised.

[Sam Spade]

This election is now all about LA.

73 and 75 are the ones that still stand a chance of passing (75 more).  I need to see the Hispanic impact on 73 in LA before I make a prediction.

[Sam Spade]

I got up from bed just to see what was happening on the Cali props.

Looks like they're all going to be defeated.  75 got killed in LA county, as I thought might happen, and the non-linear shift of Hispanics in LA County weren't strong enough behind 73 to save it.

Other than that, this thread has turned into partisan pointless from both sides now.

It was fun until then countin' the numbers.  

[Sam Spade]

SF Gun Ban updated results from SF Chronicle:

Proposition H, which requires city residents who already own guns to turn them in to police by April 1, was winning 58 percent to 42 percent with 98 percent of precincts counted.

The measure also makes it illegal to buy, sell, distribute and manufacture firearms and ammunition in the city.
I think the obvious joke should be to call it the Preparation H Gun Ban. 

Describes San Francisco so well in so many ways.