Top one = Polls suggesting a marginal Conway victory
Bottom one= Reality since the polls in kentucky tend to overstate the support that democrats actually get. Bevin beats conway slightly and makes further inroads into a lot of the eastern kenucky coal region.
I might agree that Bevin was likely to win if the polls showed a tie or Conway only ahead a point or two, but Bevin hasn't led since June (which was the only time Bevin's lead Conway, btw), and the polls we do have show Conway up by solid margins, plus I bet a good chunk of Republicans who dislike Conway but can't stomach Bevin will go for Curtis (yes he's left-leaning but most voters don't know that). Not to sound like Paddy Ashdown or anything, but if Bevin wins I'll eat my hat (and weep for Kentucky while doing so).
