The absentee/early vote thread

[dspNY]

In Florida, Democrats have requested 3557 more absentee ballots + votes in VBM but the GOP has about a 35.5K lead in just ballots cast. Are some Dems requesting VBM ballots and deciding to vote in person?

They could just not be returning their ballots.

Or because they're no immediately filling out the ballots...

I mean like the election is 12 days away (because mail for today has already ended on the East Coast) so they better get those ballots in.

Depends on the state, some will still count it if postmarked on Election Day.

In Florida, vote by mail requests terminate on November 2 and must be received no later than 7 PM on Election Day. Therefore, to ensure that the votes are counted, they should be sent by November 1 or 2 or hand-delivered to a voting station on Election Day itself

Thanks for the official word!

You're welcome.

Now for an interesting treat...here are some SOUTH Carolina early voting demographics

White: 108,256 (66.8%)
African-American: 52,936 (32.7%)
Hispanic: 638 (0.4%)
Unknown: 113 (0.1%)

[dspNY]

And some Wisconsin absentee stats for 10/26

Dane and Milwaukee (Dem counties) make up 29% of the early vote. They were 26% of the 2012 statewide vote.

Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington (Republican counties) make up 14.6% of the early vote. They were 12.3% of the 2012 statewide vote. So I think Clinton needs to shore up Wisconsin

[dspNY]

In Florida, Democrats have requested 3557 more absentee ballots + votes in VBM but the GOP has about a 35.5K lead in just ballots cast. Are some Dems requesting VBM ballots and deciding to vote in person?

They could just not be returning their ballots.

Or because they're no immediately filling out the ballots...

I mean like the election is 12 days away (because mail for today has already ended on the East Coast) so they better get those ballots in.

Depends on the state, some will still count it if postmarked on Election Day.

In Florida, vote by mail requests terminate on November 2 and must be received no later than 7 PM on Election Day. Therefore, to ensure that the votes are counted, they should be sent by November 1 or 2 or hand-delivered to a voting station on Election Day itself

Thanks for the official word!

You're welcome.

Now for an interesting treat...here are some SOUTH Carolina early voting demographics

White: 108,256 (66.8%)
African-American: 52,936 (32.7%)
Hispanic: 638 (0.4%)
Unknown: 113 (0.1%)

Whoa! Higher than Georgia (the white vote too though). What's it like in the past.

I think this is about normal for SC

[dspNY]

Democrats win by 45 votes in Washoe County in the in-person early vote today (4,051-4,006)

[dspNY]

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn:

Clinton has an even larger 66 to 28 percent lead among those early voters (n=47) who did not vote in the 2012 election.

Re:North Carolina

Looks like an extremely small sample size, (47) voters???

Still.... not particularly bad news although we'll need to see much more than this to make assumptions regarding those who have already voted that did not vote in 2012.

Very small sample size but we're also seeing evidence of this in Florida with Democrats turning out more infrequent voters

[dspNY]

Clinton is dramatically outperforming the party splits in early voter sub-samples

She's up 23-26 points in NC when the party split is +17 Dem
She's up 34 points in IA when the party split is +12 Dem
She's up 10 points in AZ when the party split was even (when the poll was taken)
She's up 6 points in GA when the party split probably favors the GOP
She's up 13 points in FL when the party split (a substantial # of early votes now) was even

This means one of two things:

1. Indies in the early vote are breaking heavily Democratic, or
2. A substantial number of Republicans are defecting

[dspNY]

Clinton is dramatically outperforming the party splits in early voter sub-samples

She's up 23-26 points in NC when the party split is +17 Dem
She's up 34 points in IA when the party split is +12 Dem
She's up 10 points in AZ when the party split was even (when the poll was taken)
She's up 6 points in GA when the party split probably favors the GOP

This means one of two things:

1. Indies in the early vote are breaking heavily Democratic, or
2. A substantial number of Republicans are defecting

Could be a partial mixture of the two as well.

If it was one sub-sample from one state, then there is no trend. When we are seeing this out of every single state, then you can see the possible landslide because indies usually split evenly and the GOP usually stays 90% or more on its side. The fact that Clinton has 10% more of her base than Trump has of his is hugely important

[dspNY]

Adding the polling places created a huge surge in Guilford County

https://twitter.com/HPEpaul/status/791744287998353408

[dspNY]

Guilford is taking these new EV hours to heart. Over 20k voters today, only 2k below yesterday w/ hours to go
https://twitter.com/wccubbison/status/792075656582537217?lang=de

is this a democratic county?

57% Obama in 2012, so a good Democratic county

[dspNY]

Iowa absentee ballot stats, 10/28

Ballots requested:

DEM: 234,166
GOP: 187,627
IND: 122,490
Other: 1,700

Ballots cast:

DEM: 177,506
GOP: 136,957
IND: 83,126
Other: 1,142

Dems gain another 1K or so on ballot requests but the margin of ballots cast remains about the same

[dspNY]

dems won 2012 by 6 points with a lead of 60k.

even 40k should be "enough" if their turnout works. contrary: this is the state with the best trump machine.

I've said it multiple times, I think they need a 50K margin in party preference going into Election Day to win. 40K is very iffy. The numbers back a tie in Iowa which is what quinnipiac came up with

[dspNY]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 1m1 minute ago

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Hopefully Hillary's lead increases.

Dems won Washoe County by 20 votes today (just in-person early vote)

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

[dspNY]

Dems won Washoe County by 20 votes today (just in-person early vote)
https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

weekend should be good for dems...

if reps don't overcome the advantage in washoe next week, their goose is cooked, sliced and served.

Dems have a larger lead in Washoe this time than they did in 2012. Combined with what is expected to come out of Vegas (Clark) today, Dems will be in a better position than they were in 2012 statewide

[dspNY]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
Florida's registered voters, now final:
2016: White 64.2, Hispanic 15.7, Black 13.4
2012: White 66.5, Hispanic 13.9, Black 13.6

Broadly, excellent.

That would explain part of why FAU found Clinton up by 13 among early voters even though the party ID breakdown is even. Lots of newly registered Hispanic voters register as independent

[dspNY]

Then you should show some facts instead of mumbling

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2h2 hours ago Manhattan, NY
"Clinton has an 18 point lead in NC early voting with more than 1 million votes cast, according to our estimates"

This isn't like other years when you could just use Rep and Dem registration ID to safely infer voting leads-- a significant number of registered Republicans in both NC and Florida will be voting for Clinton, as indicated by the Upshot's model extrapolating from their polling.

Blah blah blah so what?

Dem won of NC ealry voting but lost in final results

the point is GOP is doing better than 2012

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cv7tYZXXEAAfOXT.jpg

Are they? Trump's Republican support is 10% less than Romney's and his Democratic support is virtually zero

[dspNY]

From latest Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397

"North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton."

wth believe that skewed poll ?

get this trhough your head.    

Black voter turnouts 26.6% decreased compare with 2012.

Clinton is winning independents and a slice of Republicans in these early vote subsamples. Trump is winning virtually zero Democrats. That's how you get Clinton winning by 20-25 points in the NC early vote when she's winning the Party ID battle by 15

[dspNY]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

It basically parallels 2012 and that's all we need to win NV

[dspNY]

What still gets me is that Clinton leads in the polling crosstabs of people who have already voted by a much larger amount than party ID would indicate. This didn't happen in either of Obama's wins where the early vote subsamples largely mirrored party ID and demographic voting rates

[dspNY]

What still gets me is that Clinton leads in the polling crosstabs of people who have already voted by a much larger amount than party ID would indicate. This didn't happen in either of Obama's wins where the early vote subsamples largely mirrored party ID and demographic voting rates

Didn't happen in the final result in the state, or didn't happen in the polls of early voters?

In the polls of early voters...

PPP polled NC twice with the early voter question. Obama led by 17 about 10 days before the election and by 9 in their final NC poll. The party ID difference was about 17-18 points in favor of Democrats through the 2012 early voting period

[dspNY]

@RalstonReports  17s seconds ago

Turnout today in Clark County is going to be higher than Friday. 24,000 by 3 PM. It was 22,000 at same time Friday.



Any fear about turnout being down early in the day seems to have been unnecessary (...as usual).

Democratic base furious with Comey and taking it out on Comey and Trump. For reference, turnout on the same day in Clark was only 2000 higher, so we're looking to exceed 2012 at least on this metric

[dspNY]

Democrats win early voting in Washoe County by 18 votes today

3097-3079

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

[dspNY]

Democrats win early voting in Washoe County by 18 votes today

3097-3079

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

These repeated victories in Washoe are a big deal.

Didn't Dems win Washoe in 2012 already?

They went into week 2 with a narrower lead in Washoe in 2012

[dspNY]

Once again, taking NV off the table removes all win paths that do not include either PA or WI

[dspNY]

In NC yesterday, 7062 more Democrats voted than in 2012 on that same day.  Turnout doesn't seem to be taking a hit.

We're absolutely livid with Comey

[dspNY]

I don't think we can draw a real conclusion about FL until all the early vote results are in on 11/7 due to the different voting schedule