TRUMP's strategy is to win the non-Iowa/Minnesota/Illinois Midwest - Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Not a guarantee he'll win all of those, but for the sake of argument we'll assume it. We have to assume he'll lose Florida and Nevada because of Latinos. North Carolina is around 9% Latino, but should be okay for TRUMP as it was a Romney win, and TRUMP will likely make gains in both the white and black vote there. Iowa obviously hates him.
Virginia and Colorado are the toughest to figure out - The Latino vote is important in Colorado, but the white population there hates Hillary with a passion. Virginia depends on whether TRUMP can galvanize his voters in the more rural parts of the state, plus match Gillespie in Loudoun and Prince William, and prove he does have a great relationship with the blacks by holding down Clinton in Fairfax and Heinrico. Not easy, but not impossible.
However, the good news for TRUMP is that he doesn't need either to win. In fact, he doesn't need New Hampshire or ME-2 even though he probably wins them if he's winning MI and WI. This is 270 EV's exactly:
How does he win Wisconsin and Michigan but not Iowa?
