Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Citizen Hats]

I agree with much of the content of that letter, though forum's regionals are a bit different than 2011, to note by share of 2011 vote

(PC: NDP: LIB: GRN)

• Ontario:0.99: 0.92: 1.01: 1.71
• Toronto: 1.41: 0.92: 0.82: 1.68
• 905: 0.79: 1.01: 1.18: 1.06
• North: 1.01: 0.74: 1.21: 1.07
• Southwest: 0.98: 0.88: 0.90: 3.13
• East: 1.05: 0.90: 0.99: 0.95

With the Liberals polling above their vote in the 905 and the Tories polling above their vote in the City, and the North being wonky, you're bound to see different seat totals. 

That being said, I have no belief that they would be Forum different

[Citizen Hats]

On closer inspection, it appears that a lot of Ipsos' map oddities are a result of odd shaped FSAs. 

look at N0B, for instance https://www.google.com/maps/place/Ontario+N0B/@43.513311,-80.4542224,9z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x882b8d2cd0a914eb:0x857e9407ecd2e668

[Citizen Hats]

my projection had them winning seats in Town while getting nearly wipped out in the 905

[Citizen Hats]

I trust no one

[Citizen Hats]

A note- the BC Liberals are almost never referred to as 'Grits'

[Citizen Hats]

Any commentary about the NDP's bold "false front-wrap" on today's Toronto Sun?



Interesting strategy, but it continues the NDP framing itself with populist rhetoric.

Is it unfair of me for thinking yet more negatively of the NDP for patronizing that rag with their business?

[Citizen Hats]

I read the new Forum poll in today's Toronto Star.  It shows the Liberal lead over the PCs widening from three points (38%-35%) to seven (41%-34%), yet somehow, the projected lead in seats has shrunk from 42 (68-26) to 32 (63-31).  These guys must have PhDs because I can't figure it out!

Lorne Bozinoff, as he is fond of repeating, does in fact have a PhD

[Citizen Hats]

LOL Grits. Tried to crash a Horwath event as True Leftists.

This is just sad.

Come on folks. They were wearing red shirts and Liberal buttons and lanyards.  'posed' my posterior

[Citizen Hats]

Lots of Mayors have led provincial parties out west (Klein, Decore, Harcourt), but I can't remember the last time a sitting Mayor ran for a Ontario provincial party leadership.  The only former Mayor who leaps to mind is Michael Prue.

BC with the exception of Christy Clark, every BC Premier has been a former mayor since Bill Bennett stepped down, and Christy Clark ran for mayor of Vancouver but lost the NPA nomination to Sam Sullivan in odd happenstance. 

I hear the Mayor of Toronto's conservative, though...

[Citizen Hats]

Wow, how did I forget about Glen Clark and Ujjal Dossanj? 

[Citizen Hats]

Did anyone else get a sickly feeling with the FR poll? A tie plays well into the Liberal game of scaring soft progressive votes into not voting NDP. Maybe I'm just being overly cynical.

If you look at the regional tabs, the NDP is up in SW and Toronto which is where they need to be up in.

Bozinoff said that the abortion stance of the Fed Libs was costing them votes without even bothering to poll on that question.  While Forum does have high Liberal numbers typically, that has only been since Trudeau was leader.  Given the nature of the people who would vote for the Liberals with Trudeau but not without, I highly doubt that we have Forum in the bag, but rather that their methodology just happens to pick up that sort of voter.  CRA on the other hand...

[Citizen Hats]

It appears from the crosstabs that the two main reasons for Ipsos's likely/eligible split are: (1) seniors expressing more confidence that they will vote than youngs, and (2) men expressing more confidence that they will vote than women.

The first of these is almost certainly right, but the second seems a bit dubious; it might just be men being more likely to express confident opinions in general.

It's stuff like this that is why I regard LV numbers as naught but voodoo.  They're simply not sensible enough to apply numbers too, and they give a false sense of certainty by their numerical-ness

[Citizen Hats]

scrap that, there's something wrong with my data file

[Citizen Hats]

have they counted all the absentees?

[Citizen Hats]

Interestingly enough, all three leaders lost votes in their own seats. Wynne was down 1.31 pp.  Hudak was down 8.97 pp, and Horwath was down 9.28 pp.

Is there some sort of reverse leader effect in Ontario?

[Citizen Hats]

[Citizen Hats]

a small one (0-3%), but nonetheless a swing. More of a dead-cat-bounce

[Citizen Hats]

Weird. Perhaps Hamilton Centre isn't as populist as one would think, it probably has a lot of progressive elites much like downtown Toronto or Downtown Ottawa.

Hamilton Centre is more like the old Hamilton West than old Hamilton East and so has more of those people in it, yes. But note also that the NDP polled ridiculously well in that area generally last time.

Exactly. A matter of winning 51% rather than 60% of the vote

[Citizen Hats]

Perhaps also lower turnout with NDPers staying home brought up Tory numbers? Brendan, would you be able to do a change in turnout map?

do you have the riding-turnout data yet? I haven't found it

[Citizen Hats]

Well, that throws a few theories out the window

[Citizen Hats]

well, it certainly doesn't look like Downtown progressives stayed home

[Citizen Hats]

Map?

[Citizen Hats]

I love you Krago. 

[Citizen Hats]

[Citizen Hats]

Declined ballots? In Ontario, you can show up to the voting station and just decline to vote? Wierd.

As a way officially registering your refusal to select a candidate, rather than not voting, turning in a blank ballot, or spoiling your ballot. This was brought up frequently this election in the press. You hand your ballot back to the officer, and it is recorded

Wouldn't you normally expect spoilt ballots to be more frequent in working class and minority areas?

These aren't spoilt, rather they are consciously refused ballots, though the spoilage map isn't that different