British Local Elections, May 2024

[Blair]

Would be funny if the Gaza rebellion and Khan losing (still pretty unlikely imo) induces Sunak into calling a summer election.

As we know from the 2022 elections the lobby & Westminster will go mad if Khan loses; weirdly however it will been seen as very much on him & his own unpopularity- and the energised opposition to get him out.

I might be wrong (seasoned posters correct me!) but his 2021 first round showing could easily have gone down because of Gaza, ULEZ and his general unpopularity- antecode not data but it's easy to find individuals who are Labour supporters who do not like him.

When you add in that the changes in Labours polling since 2021 have laregly been among leave voters and Conservative switchers you could suspect London would not seen as large swings- Stephen Bush points out the Conservative vote in London is low, but stable & loyal.

Add in the risk of defections to smaller parties, lower turnout in Labour strongholds and an energised anti-Khan vote and it's easy to get into a world where it's both Khan and Hall fighting in the mid to high 30s.

[CumbrianLefty]

The first detailed result from the new East Midlands mayoralty had Labour narrowly carrying Rushcliffe - it is fair to say "Wanna Three Jobs Ben" isn't going to achieve that target with this one.

[Oryxslayer]

Somehow, Labour are now the largest Group in Basildon. That is a big overperformance. The Indies really cut deep into the northern Wickford wards, and Labour swept all targets.


On the flip side, the Lib-Dems miss their Benchmark in Brentwood. They fail to move the last few inches and take the  majority, and are stuck still in the coalition with Labour.

Lib-Dems look to have suffered in Sheffield.

The Pendle defectors hold and expand their count, going right at the deadline seems to have avoided some negativity other in their shoes have faced.

[Blair]

The first detailed result from the new East Midlands mayoralty had Labour narrowly carrying Rushcliffe - it is fair to say "Wanna Three Jobs Ben" isn't going to achieve that target with this one.

Again weird how little coverage the East Midlands race has had; iirc it's basically drawn in a way that was expected to harm Labour, and Labour winning is a sign of the Times- but everyone will obsess over Houchen & Street.

I guess its boring to say 'Labour do well'

[Blair]

The growth of independents is very very interesting & is actually the thing I would worry about if I was Labour; their vote is very very easy to cannablise at local elections (while remaining relatively strong in GEs- see 97-06)

[CumbrianLefty]

Notably underwhelming showing by Galloway's franchise in Rochdale - especially given the gains some playing the Gaza card (Indies, Greens and even LibDems) have had from Labour in other places.

(by way of contrast - a few months after his 2012 win in Bradford, his allies took five seats off Labour and weren't far off a couple more)

[Oryxslayer]

Labour win Nuneaton but not a total landslide.

[CumbrianLefty]

There were real doubts Labour would get a majority at all there - so actually a very good result if so.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour lose Kirklees to a targeted Indie Muslim campaign in a urban wards, even as they gained off the Tories elsewhere.

[Talleyrand]

What were the expectations for Dorset coming into tonight?

[Oryxslayer]

What were the expectations for Dorset coming into tonight?

Lib-Dem gain, though maybe not a landslide.




Labour have taken East Midlands.

The contiguous P&C with Houchen's Mayoralty goes Labour by a 5% margin.

[Bono]

So today I learned that Andy Street is in a relationship with Michael Fabricant, notorious wig wearing MP for Lichfield.

Anyway, even though the tories deserve to lose everything, I voted for Street in spite of that as he's really done a good job. Also, if Labour win by too much they'll rest on their laurels and start cozying to the extreme left again.

[CumbrianLefty]

Bradley took Derbyshire Dales district by less than 100 votes - did he top the poll anywhere else?

[afleitch]

So today I learned that Andy Street is in a relationship with Michael Fabricant, notorious wig wearing MP for Lichfield.

Anyway, even though the tories deserve to lose everything, I voted for Street in spite of that as he's really done a good job. Also, if Labour win by too much they'll rest on their laurels and start cozying to the extreme left again.

Where the fk have you been 😁

[afleitch]

So yes, obvious warning signs for Labour in certain areas and demographics at a time when they can still address them.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour have taken the P&C in Norfolk as well as Northamptonshire, most notable because Labour fell short in what should be more friendly turf.


Hastings meanwhile is looking like all the Labour delegation chaos opened the door for the Greens and they are the beneficiaries of the uncertainty.

Labour 1 seat off a majority in North Herts, always a tradety when you comes so close. Reminds one of Hartlepool and Darlington last year, but here Labour are not going to be ganged up on.

[TheTide]

Projected National Vote Shares are Labour 34%, Tories 25%, Lib Dems 17%, Others 24%.

I wish they'd just do away with this bollocks.

[jaichind]

Projected National Vote Shares are Labour 34%, Tories 25%, Lib Dems 17%, Others 24%.

I wish they'd just do away with this bollocks.

I wonder how much of the Others are Reform Party ?

[CumbrianLefty]

Projected National Vote Shares are Labour 34%, Tories 25%, Lib Dems 17%, Others 24%.

I wish they'd just do away with this bollocks.

J*m*s *o*n*o* already doing his "this PROVES that the polls are wrong" shtick - Labour also had the third biggest swing from the Tories since WW2 in a byelection, but that doesn't count for some reason.

[Oryxslayer]

Projected National Vote Shares are Labour 34%, Tories 25%, Lib Dems 17%, Others 24%.

I wish they'd just do away with this bollocks.

I wonder how much of the Others are Reform Party ?

Not much. In locals, this group is always dominated by true Independents and Localists. Which is why they are locals, and why the model isn't good without a big asterisk.



Starmer in Yorkshire with the new Mayor.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour fail to take one of their "easier" PCC gains on paper - Humberside - but then win Norfolk and Northamptonshire. Please make it make sense

[warandwar]

The far right SDP remnant won the final seat in middleton park in leeds, now they hold all three. Havent seen much other minor party wins.

[afleitch]

Interesting story with Reform.

Their vote share in assumed strong areas (where they are actually standing) is between 12 and 15%.

But you'd expect them to be doing better than that (as in significantly better than their 12% polling average) if they are their strong areas.

It could be that either, they stood where they aren't strong or their vote share is more uniform than Brexit/UKIP.

Or, as is more likely 'on the day' they will underperform their polling, which itself may ebb during a general election campaign.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour have held cambridge, even taking a ward despite fears of low emission zones and student gaza issues.

Cannock Chase becomes a Labour majority.

[Oryxslayer]

The far right SDP remnant won the final seat in middleton park in leeds, now they hold all three. Havent seen much other minor party wins.

Galloway's northeastern Adventure has given his sycophants a seat in Calderdale and another in Manchester, alongside the 2 in Rosendale. Excluding the localist groups who just confine themselves to one council though, that may be it for smaller parties.