Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat

[DINGO Joe]

Just read an article that said 33,000 voted by mail or in early voting (19% turnout), while live turnout today at 2PM was just 3%, so it seems that all that matters is early voting.  The two polls cited above had wildly different numbers for those who had already voted.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/voters-show-up-early-for-special-primary-election/2160903

[DINGO Joe]

David Jolly leading with 44% of the vote, Kathleen Peters receives 33%, Mark Bircher has 23%.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/politics/results.html

That's the early vote, looks like Jolly will win easily

[DINGO Joe]

And it's over--Jolly leads 44-32-24 with 75% of precincts in 15 minutes after the polls closed

http://enr.votepinellas.com/FL/Pinellas/50611/123848/en/summary.html

[DINGO Joe]

Just 10,035 voting at the polls today, the other 35,000+ was done by mail or early.  Bircher was actually second in election day voting.

http://enr.votepinellas.com/FL/Pinellas/50611/123861/en/vts.html?cid=0103

[DINGO Joe]

Someone's been doing some very extensive opposition research.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/david-jolly-killed-a-man/2167218

Makes the related article from a month ago  "David Jolly killing GOP rivals in air war" somewhat awkward now.

A morbid question, according to the article, the victim was thrown 147 ft, that's 50 yards.  That seems incredible, maybe he was dragged that far?

[DINGO Joe]

The mail ballot vote has now gone past 87,000, probably on track for about 120,000.  The partisan breakdown has narrowed slightly from when it was 66,000 and the margin was just over 2.5%

R-- 41.71
D-  39.56
O- 18.74

In the Republican primary 36,000 votes were cast early and only 10,000 on election day (though the weather was quite poor), I'd expect vote day turnout to be between 40,000 and 60,000 though that's just an educated guess.  Pinellas is the most reliant on vote by mail of any Florida county and it's steadily increased each election cycle.

In the other recent special elections  MA-5 had 80,000 in the primary and 61,000 in the general (bad weather and not competitive in the general) and LA-5 had 103,000 in the open primary and 91,000 in the runoff (the runoff was competitive but between two Rs)

Obviously this special election will exceed both of those in terms of turnout and may exceed both of those combined in votes.

[DINGO Joe]

Through Sunday, the last day for in person early voting, but with mail bailouts able to be returned the early vote is now up to 122,000 with the R advantage of about 4500 voters or just under 4%.  There will probably be about 13,000 more mail bailout over the next two days, so a total of 135,000 early votes. 

For comparison, in 2010 there were 116,000 early votes and 93,000 election day votes.  I doubt that the special will match an off year election (which did include a gov and sen race) turnout, so election day turnout will probably be in the 40,000-60,000 range.  Weather should be beautiful election day--High of 77, no rain.