2009 State and European Parliament Elections in Austria

[minionofmidas]

Final results from Salzburg

SPÖ 39.5
ÖVP 36.5
FPÖ 13.1
Greens 7.3
BZÖ 3.7

turnout 73.4

[minionofmidas]

Looks like the fascists will have a majority of seats in Carinthia. What a damn awful sh**thole state.

18 out of 36.

[Hash]

Why are some of those rural (?) mountain town so left-wing, especially that Red Belt of sorts running through the centre?

[Tender Branson]

Thanks for the map. As for the question, I think there's no uniform answer to it. Most of these rural cities are ski resorts, but that does not automatically mean that they are voting for the SPÖ.

Just look at one of the 2 biggest and most famous ski resorts in Austria:

Kaprun (remember the 2000 tragedy, where 150 or so people were killed there). It has historically been a SPÖ-stronghold, also in this election.

Saalbach-Hinterglemm on the other hand, where the Alpine Ski World Championship took place in 1992, is one of the most ÖVP leaning cities in the state.

As for the bigger cities, Zell am See for example, they always tend to vote for the SPÖ, but this year they voted for an ÖVP mayor with 60% after re-electing the SPÖ candidate with 70% in 2004.

Other smaller places may have lots of blue-collar workers who tend to vote for the SPÖ, such as in Saalfelden, where there lots of industries or in Lend, where's an Aluminium factory.

In Schwarzach, there's the hospital and its staff is very leftist as well ...

[Tender Branson]

I´ve created a map of the combined vote of SPÖ+Greens (Red) and ÖVP+FPÖ+BZÖ (Blue), with 3 shades (50%+, 60%+, 70%+):

[Franzl]

My sympathy, Tender, that you have such an awful state in Austria

Seems kind of like our Alabama.

[Tender Branson]

The same map for Carinthia, using the fitting colors (BZÖ+ÖVP+FPÖ) and (SPÖ+Greens+KPÖ):

(I had to use 4 scales for the Rightwingers (50%+, 60%+, 70%+ and 80%+)

[Tender Branson]

Postal votes in Carinthia are partially counted and they have pushed the Greens from 4.99% to 5.13%, so that they will finally get their 2 seats because of the 5%-treshold. The remaining postal votes will be counted next Monday:

BZÖ: 44.9% (17 seats)
SPÖ: 28.8% (11 seats)
ÖVP: 16.8% (6 seats)
Greens: 5.1% (2 seats)

FPÖ: 3.8%
KPÖ: 0.5%
Others: 0.1%

[minionofmidas]

What's the hard-red place in the Pongau?

[Hash]

What's the hard-red place in the Pongau?

Zell, I'd bet. As I said, it's 86% Slovene.

IIRC, only majority Slovene town in Carinthia.

[Kevin]

This is a most excellent night for the people of Carinthia.

[Tender Branson]

What's the hard-red place in the Pongau?

Zell, I'd bet. As I said, it's 86% Slovene.

IIRC, only majority Slovene town in Carinthia.

No, Pongau is the "District of St. Johann" - situated in Salzburg.

And the dark red city is Schwarzach, where the county hospital is situated. And doctors and med-staff tend to be hardcore SPÖ/Greens. It's the hospital where Dieter Althaus (CDU) was treated after his ski accident, remember ?

It's also a Train node, and train node cities are always hardcore SPÖ as well.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting Exit Poll about first-time-voters in Salzburg (age 16-23):

30% FPÖ
17% SPÖ
4% BZÖ
1% ÖVP and Greens
48% Non-Voters

Which means, of those who went to the polls, 65% voted for FPÖ+BZÖ ...

[Franzl]

Interesting Exit Poll about first-time-voters in Salzburg (age 16-23):

30% FPÖ
17% SPÖ
4% BZÖ
1% ÖVP and Greens
48% Non-Voters

Which means, of those who went to the polls, 65% voted for FPÖ+BZÖ ...

In other words....the right-wing isn't going away soon.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting Exit Poll about first-time-voters in Salzburg (age 16-23):

30% FPÖ
17% SPÖ
4% BZÖ
1% ÖVP and Greens
48% Non-Voters

Which means, of those who went to the polls, 65% voted for FPÖ+BZÖ ...

In other words....the right-wing isn't going away soon.

No, it won't. Stay tuned for Upper Austria and Vorarlberg in the fall. I expect ÖVP+FPÖ+BZÖ to cross 60% in Upper Austria and 70% in Vorarlberg, with FPÖ+BZÖ getting close to 20% in Upper Austria and maybe 25% in Vorarlberg. But "the real big thing" will be Vienna next year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'd be careful about putting too much faith in exit poll details; though, yeah, it's pretty obvious that the FPÖ has a relatively young profile.

[Verily]

This is a most excellent night for the people of Carinthia.

Tell me, which party would you have voted for in Germany in 1932?

Yes, voting for the FPO or BZO is basically the same thing. You want conservatives, vote OVP.

[Kevinstat]

What are the chances of any changes to the final partisan tally of Sunday's provincial elections in Carinthia (where Tender said the remaining postal votes would be counted this coming Monday)?  In Salzburg?

What seat allocation method does each states use among those parties meeting the 5% threshold?  I know it's 5% in Carinthia, but what about Salzburg and all the other states?

[Tender Branson]

What are the chances of any changes to the final partisan tally of Sunday's provincial elections in Carinthia (where Tender said the remaining postal votes would be counted this coming Monday)?  In Salzburg?

What seat allocation method does each states use among those parties meeting the 5% threshold?  I know it's 5% in Carinthia, but what about Salzburg and all the other states?

Salzburg is already fully counted and there have been basically no changes, because postal votes only made up 6% of all ballots that were cast. Of these 6%, turnout was about 83% and most of these ballot were already counted on Sunday.

So the final result in Salzburg is:

SPÖ: 39.4% (-6.0)
ÖVP: 36.5% (-1.4)
FPÖ: 13.0% (+4.3)
Greens: 7.4% (-0.6)
BZÖ: 3.7% (+3.7)

Turnout: 74.4% (-2.9)

Breakdown of Salzburg postal votes:

ÖVP: 42.3%
SPÖ: 35.6%
Greens: 10.6%
FPÖ: 8.9%
BZÖ: 2.6%

As for Austrian state elections, the treshold varies from state to state. In Lower Austria, Upper Austria and Burgenland there´s a 4% treshold for a party to enter the state parliament, in Salzburg, Carinthia, Vienna, Tyrol and Vorarlberg there´s a 5% treshold and in Styria a party needs a basic mandate in one of the electoral districts. The seats are allocated according to the Hagenbach-Bischoff-method (1st evaluation round) and the D´Hondt-method (2nd evaluation round).

Here's how Carinthia allocates its seats based on the 2 evaluation rounds:

http://info.ktn.gv.at/ltwahl2009/LT2009_mandate.pdf

[Tender Branson]

BTW: A renewed SPÖVP coalition in Salzburg is basically guaranteed ...

[Kevinstat]

Outside Styria, does a party have to obtain the 4% or 5% quota even to get a mandate seat (not that that would matter in most cases)?  I would think not as the gultige stimmen pro wahlkrs. upon which the wahlzahl (electoral district quota) seemed to be based equaled the sum of all the parties' votes in each electoral district.  If the votes of all parties are going to count in the denominator for an electoral district mandate, one would think all parties would be elligible for such a mandate regardless of their statewide performance.  The ratio of the gultige to the wahlzahl equaled the mandate pro wahlkrs. which would seem to indicate the Hare quota rather than the Hagenbach-Bischoff quota being used, although I guess that isn't inconsistent with the Hagenbach-Bischoff method and actually makes more sense if the aim is statewide proportionality after proportionality-enhancing seats are added (higher quota in the first tier = less chance of overhang mandates).

In Styria and outside of Styria if no party not meeting the statewide threshold gets a mandate in any electoral district, does the party composition always (or almost always) match that of land-wide D'Hondt among those parties meeting the threshold?  I noticed no non-integer reststimmen on your link, so perhaps if a party or parties were within a vote or two of gaining/losing a seat from/to a larger party or parties under D'Hondt (a vote for a party "going for" a smaller number of seats would count more than a vote for a party going for a larger number of seats), the composition of the two or more parties' votes in each district could make a difference.  Or are fractional values calculated for the reststimmen, just not shown on your link?  If the end statewide partisan tally in Carinthia will be that of pure D'Hondt among those parties getting 5% or more of the statewide vote, then I could calculate what would need to happen with the outstanding postal votes in order for any seats to change hands.

[Tender Branson]

Final result in Carinthia (all postal votes counted):

BZÖ: 44.89% (17 seats)
SPÖ: 28.74% (11 seats)
ÖVP: 16.83% (6 seats)
Greens: 5.15% (2 seats)
FPÖ: 3.76%
KPÖ: 0.53%
Others: 0.10%

Turnout: 81.78% (+3.15%)

Breakdown of postal votes only (6% of all ballots cast):

BZÖ: 35.06%
SPÖ: 31.15%
ÖVP: 22.24%
Greens: 7.73%
FPÖ: 3.23%
KPÖ: 0.55%
Others: 0.04%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looks like a late swing to the BZÖ. Crazy.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like a late swing to the BZÖ. Crazy.

Probably the Haider-effect, or bad opinion polls.

[Tender Branson]

Some new approval ratings for important Austrian politicians, according to the institute OGM for the newspaper Profil, conducted March 9, among 500 voters aged 16+:

President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ): 82% Approve, 12% Disapprove (will decide in Mid-2009 if he runs for a second term next year, with these numbers he's probably easily re-elected)

President of the Parliament Barbara Prammer (SPÖ): 51% Approve, 17% Disapprove (if Fischer retires, she's a likely candidate for the SPÖ and the first female candidate for the SPÖ in a Presidential election)

Chancellor Werner Faymann (SPÖ): 57% Approve, 28% Disapprove (has seen better ratings before, probably suffered because of the election losses of the Carinthia and Salzburg SPÖ recently)

Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Josef Pröll (ÖVP): 67% Approve, 26% Disapprove (has always been popular, a younger liberal and competent face of the ÖVP, probably boosted by the improved result of the Carinthian ÖVP)

Minister of Education Claudia Schmied (SPÖ): 52% Approve, 28% Disapprove (currently in a bitter fight with the teachers, because she wants them to work 2 hours more per week, otherwise teachers will be fired because of the limited budget, teachers are of course pissed, but the Austrian population is on her side, according to polls - similar to Obama's fight with the US Teachers Union)

FPÖ-leader Heinz-Christian Strache: 29% Approve, 60% Disapprove (his next big fight will be the Vienna State and City elections, where he wants to beat long-time mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ) and become mayor. Probably not happening though, but he's got a boost because of the good result in last years federal elections)

http://www.ogm.at/pdfs/Bundespolitiker_Maerz09.pdf