2009 State and European Parliament Elections in Austria

[Хahar 🤔]

Why are the Greens so strong compared to the SPÖ in Vorarlberg?

[Tender Branson]

Why are the Greens so strong compared to the SPÖ in Vorarlberg?

2 main reasons:

In Vorarlberg (and Tyrol) the big labor unions have always been headed by the ÖVP (or better said the ÖAAB), while the FSG is dominant in all other states. That might explain why the SPÖ is doing relatively badly among workers in these states, because if they think the ÖAAB can manage unions too, why should they vote for the Social Democrats ?

The other reason is that the Greens are particularly strong in the Austrian mountain west (Vorarlberg, Tyrol and Salzburg) and in bigger cities. And even though Vorarlberg is a state, it´s a small one and very densely populated one. The "Rheintal (Rhine Valley)", where 80% of Vorarlberg lives, can somehow be considered a big city.

[Tender Branson]

Why are the Greens so strong compared to the SPÖ in Vorarlberg?

Oh sry, I forgot another main reason:

Vorarlberg has the second highest amount of foreigners in Austria (besides Vienna) and once they are naturalized and able to vote, they vote heavily Green.

13% are foreigners and 21% have a migration background.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Upper Austria poll by Spectra for the newspaper "OÖ Nachrichten":



There`s also an IMAS poll in today's Kronen Zeitung for Upper Austria and Linz:

Upper Austria:

ÖVP: 43-45%
SPÖ: 32-34%
FPÖ: 9-11%
Greens: 8-9%
BZÖ: 2-3%

http://www.krone.at/krone/S152/object_id__160287/hxcms/index.html

Linz:

SPÖ: 44-46% (2003: 49%)
ÖVP: 29-31% (2003: 29%)
Greens: 12-14% (2003: 13%)
FPÖ: 8-10% (2003: 8%)

http://www.krone.at/krone/S152/object_id__161233/hxcms/index.html

[Tender Branson]

Quick look back to the FPÖ-share in the 2003 elections:



So, if you have a 500-people poll of Linz which has the FPÖ at only 8-10% this is a pretty good indicator where the FPÖ will end up statewide, because the Linz-FPÖ is always about 1% below the statewide result.

Now, where is the FPÖ getting the higher share ? Basically in the districts of Braunau (surprise, surprise ?!), Schärding, Ried, Grieskirchen and Wels-Suburbs ...

[Tender Branson]

New Upper Austria poll by Market for the "OÖ Rundschau":

ÖVP: 43%
SPÖ: 33%
FPÖ: 12%
Greens: 8%
BZÖ: 2%
Others (KPÖ, The Christians): 2%

Gov. Pühringer (ÖVP) defeats challenger Haider (SPÖ) by 63-14 in a direct vote for governor.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20090912_OTS0057

[Tender Branson]

Latest News/OGM poll for Upper Austria:

ÖVP: 43% (nc)
SPÖ: 30% (-8)
FPÖ: 14% (+6)
Greens: 9% (nc)
BZÖ: 3% (+3)
Others: 1% (nc)

Black-Green: 52%
Opposition: 44%

[Tender Branson]

State elections tomorrow in Vorarlberg and 2 new federal polls out today:

Gallup for Ö24





Karmasin for Profil

SPÖ: 33%
ÖVP: 32%
FPÖ: 20%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 5%

[Tender Branson]

State elections today in the westernmost Austrian state - Vorarlberg.

It´s the most conservative state in Austria (together with Tyrol) and the ÖVP has won an absolute majority in every election since 1945 (except in 1999, when the FPÖ was really strong).

2004 results:

ÖVP: 54.9%
SPÖ: 16.9%
FPÖ: 12.9%
Greens: 10.2%
Others: 5.1%

I predict the following:

ÖVP: 50.2%
FPÖ: 17.4%
SPÖ: 14.3%
Greens: 11.5%
BZÖ: 2.7%
GSI: 2.4%
Others: 1.5%

261.130 people aged 16+ are eligible to vote. Polls are closing at 1pm local time.

[Tender Branson]

The latest Market poll for Upper Austria's state elections next Sunday has the FPÖ gaining in the final weeks:

ÖVP: 41%
SPÖ: 31%
FPÖ: 15%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 3%
Others: 1%

ÖVP-Green Government: 50%
SPÖ-FPÖ Opposition: 46%

83% of those polled are certain to vote and another 9% are likely to vote.

In 2003, turnout was 79%.

[Tender Branson]

All Vorarlberg polls are now closed. The state is counted in roughly 1 hour, but exit polls will be released in 4 hours, due to mobile precincts.

[Tender Branson]

The results of 2 cities I've already found:

Sonntag:

ÖVP: 90.6%
FPÖ: 5.9%
BZÖ: 1.2%
SPÖ: 1.2%
Greens: 0.9%
GSI: 0.2%

Bezau:

ÖVP: 71.3%
FPÖ: 17.3%
Greens: 7.8%
SPÖ: 1.8%
BZÖ: 1.4%
GSI: 0.3%
Others: 0.1%

This of course means that the FPÖ is at about 20-25% statewide.

[Hash]

What type of place is Sonntag?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sonntag:

ÖVP: 90.6%
FPÖ: 5.9%
BZÖ: 1.2%
SPÖ: 1.2%
Greens: 0.9%
GSI: 0.2%

lol

[Tender Branson]

What type of place is Sonntag?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, (Catholic, presumably) Hicksville upon Wedlock. Pretty though.

[Hash]

What type of place is Sonntag?

Cool place. I like.

[Tender Branson]

Ah, (Catholic, presumably) Hicksville upon Wedlock. Pretty though.

And a few Muslims maybe. Probably the 10 people who voted for SPÖ/Greens/GSI.

[Tender Branson]

Vorarlberg Exit Poll (17:00)

ÖVP: 50.8% (-4.1)
FPÖ: 25.2% (+12.3)
Greens: 10.4% (+0.2)
SPÖ: 10.1% (-6.8 )
GSI: 1.7% (+1.7)
BZÖ: 1.2% (+1.2)
Others: 0.6%

An overall disgusting result even for this hardcore right-wing state, but the SPÖ-result is shocking ...

[Tender Branson]

The Exit Poll is also the preliminary final result (excluding postal votes):

ÖVP: 88.819 votes (50.82%) (-4.10%)
FPÖ: 44.122 votes (25.25%) (+12.31%)
Greens: 18.116 votes (10.37%) (+0.20%)
SPÖ: 17.589 votes (10.06%) (-6.81%)
GSI: 3.042 votes (1.74%) (+1.74%)
BZÖ: 2.114 votes (1.21%) (+1.21%)
Others: 965 votes (0.56%) (+0.56%)

Total votes: 174.767 votes
Turnout (excl. postal votes): 67.41% (+6.77%)

http://www.vorarlberg.at/wahlen/lt.asp?wahlid=51

[Tender Branson]

Surprise surprise, ÖVP wins every city in the state:

[Tender Branson]

On the right side, the seat allocation:



Gov. Sausgruber (ÖVP) has already announced that he will cancel the longtime ÖVP-FPÖ coalition and that the ÖVP will now govern alone.

During the campaign, FPÖ frontrunner Egger has referred to a guy from Frankfurt (Germany) as an "Exile Jew from America".

[Tender Branson]

The 26.5% for the Far-Right is in line with previous election results, especially when compared with the 2008 federal elections, when FPÖ+BZÖ got 29% in Vorarlberg.

If this is an indicator for Upper Austria next Sunday, I guess that the FPÖ will get about 20% there and the BZÖ about 3%. If anything, it was made clear today by analyses that FPÖ-voters are deciding just in the final days to vote for their party. This may not show up in the pre-election polls.

Therefore my guess for Upper Austria:

ÖVP: 40%
SPÖ: 28%
FPÖ: 20%
Greens: 8%
BZÖ: 3%
Others: 1%

[Tender Branson]

Another disgusting side-fact of the election:

In the city of Hohenems, where the Jewish Museum is located and where Hanno Loewy is director (the man that was attacked by FPÖ-frontrunner Dieter Egger as "Exile Jew from America" for critical views of the FPÖ-campaign), the result was as followed:

ÖVP: 39.8% (-9.3%)
FPÖ: 38.0% (+18.5%)
SPÖ: 8.8% (-5.5%)
Greens: 8.6% (+0.1%)
GSI: 3.5% (+3.5%)
BZÖ: 0.8% (+0.8%)

[Tender Branson]

The most right-wing city in the state was Damüls with:

75% ÖVP
23% FPÖ
1.5% BZÖ

The most left-wing city was Bregenz with:

21% SPÖ
12% Greens
2% GSI