Israel general discussion

[DavidB.]

Zohar is a quirky fellow from "Kabbalah to the people" a weird new movement\sect\cult that got thousands to register within Likud

Is that related to the Laitman weirdo?

Yep, don't know them all that well as they virtually non existent in my social circles but I heard they are rather surging in the lower middle class periphery and even did very well in the local elections in Petah Tikva

Oh. They are basically one big scam. I lost a friend to that sect. Apparently, they're popular among Russian olim. These people should not be in the Knesset, so good riddance.

[DavidB.]

This poll by Geocartography (29 May) suggests that the collapse of the "Zionist" (lol) "Union" (lol) will not be televised -- it will be live...

27 [30] Likud
21 [11] Yesh Atid
14 [08] Jewish Home
13 [13] Joint List
10 [06] UTJ
08 [24] Zionist Union
08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
08 [05] Meretz
07 [10] Kulanu
04 [07] Shas

Don't know what's up with the weird UTJ figure, but according to Geocartography, only 70% of UTJ voters in this poll self-identify as Haredi. I'm taking this poll with a grain of salt. On the other hand, the trend regarding the left is plausible, with ZU losing seats both on its left (Meretz) and on its right (Yesh Atid). Meanwhile, it seems that Shas is starting to lose appeal. Of course, many predicted this would eventually happen after the death of R' Yosef.

[DavidB.]

Geocartography is a joke pollster, I purposefully don't post those here and suggest that they should be ignored. I remember UTJ being at 11 in a poll done before the last election and the Kahannists at 6 two elections ago.

Yeah it's probably the worst pollster out there, but I do think this poll isn't incorrect when it comes to trends. The figures for some parties (ZU, JH, UTJ) are simply terribly off.

[DavidB.]

The trends are pretty clear but it doesn't make a difference, in Israel voting is shaped towards an election (And especially in the last 72 hours) so polls in between are meaningless

This is what they say about the Netherlands too, but I disagree. A poll is not a prediction. A poll is a poll, and if you have a few of them, they can be useful in identifying trends for political parties (positive/stable/negative). Of course, one should not expect that the result of the next election will look anything like any poll that is presented now. They measure current voting intention, not voting intention in three years or even five months.

[DavidB.]

LMAO: billboards in Tel Aviv calling on Ehud Barak to make a comeback to Israeli politics. One has to be more than a little bit delusional to think Barak, of all people, will save the Israeli center/left, imo.

[DavidB.]

The train stuff is obviously right up Yesh Atid's alley, but Lapid's not going to win a GE (partly for reasons outlined by hnv). A new election would most likely be a replay of the 2015 scenario.

[DavidB.]

Channel 1 poll:
Lapid - 27
Likud - 11
JAL - 13
JH - 11
ZU - 11
Liberman - 9
UTJ - 9
Meretz - 7
Kachlon - 6
Shas - 4 (lol)

anyway it's geo-cartography poll and they are notoriously terrible

That should be Likud 21, right?

[DavidB.]

Same here... #horseshoe

[DavidB.]

Meanwhile, at the initiative of Shuli Mualem (BY), a new law will be introduced with support from MKs of basically all parties except Meretz: internet porn and "violent content" (which is pretty lol given that this is Israel) will automatically be blocked, though internet users can opt out of this. The bill is supported by MKs from all parties except Meretz. So this is the one time where Meretz proves to be the most pro-soldier party. Very interesting.

[DavidB.]

Imprecise, as to the content of the bill and Meretz stand. They support improved conditions for soldiers, legalization of marijuana and other policies that benefit conscripts.

That was a joke, referring to the idea that soldiers watch porn...

[DavidB.]

Another story of sexual misconduct by a religious Bayit Yehudi MK is going to break. It's one of the six incumbent religious MKs and if it were Bennett the story would have blown up already. It's also not Smotrich: in an interview he defended this anonymous person, which will soon not be anonymous anymore. That leaves four: Ben Dahan, Slomiansky, Yogev and Ariel. My bets are on Ariel, because it makes sense for Smotrich (also Tekuma) to defend him. In any case, this would be the second BY MK in two years, after Yinon Magal, to have engaged in sexual misconduct against women. Absurd.

[DavidB.]

Another story of sexual misconduct by a religious Bayit Yehudi MK is going to break. It's one of the six sitting religious MKs and if it were Bennet the story would have blown up already. It's also not Smotrich: in an interview he defended this anonymous person, which will soon not be anonymous anymore. That leaves four: Ben Dahan, Slomiansky, Yogev and Ariel. My bets are on Ariel, because it makes sense for Smotrich (also Tekuma) to defend him. In any case, this would be the second BY MK in two years, after Yinon Magal, to have engaged in sexual misconduct against women. Absurd.

Surely this is affecting their poll numbers?

Could be, but far from certain. Who else do you vote for if you're a religious right-winger who is decidedly to the right of Likud yet no Kachnik either, as most BY voters are? I think BY's approval of the impending destruction of Amona may have a bigger impact on their polling numbers.

[DavidB.]

Anyway, my bet is on Nissan "porno mustache" Slomiansky.

Forget what I said earlier, because this is currently the safest guess, you're right: rumor has it that it's him. It's also not Ben Dahan, who also gave an interview defending the guy.

[DavidB.]

In other news the US and our "special relationship" screw us yet again. The cabinet decided to purchase 17 more F-35 AKA piece of flying garbage and one of the biggest white elephants of military history instead of buying the new F-15 who show much better stats (and can actually fly an operational mission).

But it's "stealth"!! so all the tabloid could have headlines explaining how high tech it is, never mind it can carry a load of 2 tonnes on low signature mode and only to short ranges.

I remember back in the days of my military service how the US ed us over several times on all sort of procurement deals, the joys of being a proxy state.  

It's all worth it, because you will soon have Jared Kushner come over to provide you with hot takes on making peace!

But yeah, another thing we agree on.

[DavidB.]

You know what? That doesn't even sound too bad. I'd take it (although Lapid as PM, ehhhh... *throws up in mouth* can't we have Oren?). Not that it will ever happen.

[DavidB.]

In other news the US and our "special relationship" screw us yet again. The cabinet decided to purchase 17 more F-35 AKA piece of flying garbage and one of the biggest white elephants of military history instead of buying the new F-15 who show much better stats (and can actually fly an operational mission).

But it's "stealth"!! so all the tabloid could have headlines explaining how high tech it is, never mind it can carry a load of 2 tonnes on low signature mode and only to short ranges.

I remember back in the days of my military service how the US ed us over several times on all sort of procurement deals, the joys of being a proxy state. 

We're not exactly happy about the F35 over here either.  Eventually it will be a decent bird, but they shouldn't have forced one airframe to do three different things.

The complaints are the same in the Netherlands, by the way.

[DavidB.]

How is this in the interest of Bat Yam? Why don't they merge with more similar Holon instead?

[DavidB.]

I think an overall reform scrapping lots of municipal authorities and uniting them in larger ones with more autonomy will them all well (this must be augmented by a move to redistribute state lands between cities and smaller rural councils)

If they're really almost all as corrupt as you say, wouldn't giving them more autonomy be the least sensible thing to do?

[DavidB.]

Another story of sexual misconduct by a religious Bayit Yehudi MK is going to break. It's one of the six sitting religious MKs and if it were Bennet the story would have blown up already. It's also not Smotrich: in an interview he defended this anonymous person, which will soon not be anonymous anymore. That leaves four: Ben Dahan, Slomiansky, Yogev and Ariel. My bets are on Ariel, because it makes sense for Smotrich (also Tekuma) to defend him. In any case, this would be the second BY MK in two years, after Yinon Magal, to have engaged in sexual misconduct against women. Absurd.

Surely this is affecting their poll numbers?

No way. Most people who support BY will either not care, or say that the investigation is rigged against them, or complain about feminism. And the few people who will care, won't be swayed by it and will forget it once election day comes. The only thing of the sort that can have real effect is allegations against Bennet.

Come on dude, don't be a hack. It is indeed highly unlikely this will affect BY's polling numbers, but not because of any of this; it's because Slomiansky's behavior isn't seen as something political. Most BY voters would think he needs resign and that this behavior is disgusting, inappropriate and unacceptable, but they simply don't let it affect their view of the party.

[DavidB.]

2016 was a bad year but at least the kid torturer left through the backdoor.

[DavidB.]

Poll from tonight (grain of salt)
YA 27
Likud 23
JH 12
JAL 12
Lieberman 10
ZU 8 (LOL)
Shas 8
Kachlon 7
UTJ 7
Meretz 6

Coalition at 67, exactly what they got in the 2015 election.

Main voter movement on the "center/left" is obviously ZU -> YA, on the right it's Likud -> JH (including many people who were JH supporters in the first place but cast a tactical Likud vote in 2015) and Likud -> YB (perhaps also a similar effect as with JH, with Russians who voted Likud in 2015 for partly tactical reasons + the last-minute anti-Arab stuff now going back to YB).

Main surprise for me is that Kahlon hasn't completely collapsed yet. Shas is also doing remarkably well.

[DavidB.]

Is it possible that the guy from Jewish Home becomes PM?

Nah, either Netanyahu or the next Likud leader will be PM.

[DavidB.]

According to Knessetjeremy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I agree with points 2 and 3 (though 3 is hardly relevant) and don't know enough to say anything about 4. But 1 is important: a new Likud leader could theoretically simply replace Bibi is he's indicted. Why would that not happen, hnv1? None of the coalition parties seem truly eager to trigger a snap election (though that may change if Bibi has to go, obviously, but that would be a gamble!). And who do you think would be most likely to replace Bibi?

[DavidB.]

Will a hypothetical new Likud leader and PM ease the current tension between USA-Israel-UN or will it suffer no change?

The new U.S. president will.

[DavidB.]

According to Knessetjeremy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I agree with points 2 and 3 (though 3 is hardly relevant) and don't know enough to say anything about 4. But 1 is important: a new Likud leader could theoretically simply replace Bibi is he's indicted. Why would that not happen, hnv1? None of the coalition parties seem truly eager to trigger a snap election (though that may change if Bibi has to go, obviously, but that would be a gamble!). And who do you think would be most likely to replace Bibi?

David I don't understand,
The other rightwing parties are rising in the polls except Kulanu, new elections would likely reinforce their position especially with a Likud scandal, so I guess strategically speaking it would make sense to force new elections.

Yes, but does Lieberman have anywhere higher to go other than Minister of Defense? And can the Haredim risk Lapod becoming PM? Even Bennett might find it too risky, and Kahlon would very likely lose seats.

This. Kahlon may lose seats, and Bennett and Lieberman wouldn't gain enough to make it worth the gamble. The improvement in terms of policy and cabinet positions would be really marginal, if any.