Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

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Cameron is flying north to Balmoral for talks with the Queen. Miliband ever the opportunist who love bombed my home town last week has given an interview with the Mail saying he might station guards at the border in the event of independence.

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There are some of my favourite Daily Mail headlines from today.

'Alex Salmond's secretive Saltire-smuggling First Lady (...who is 17 years his senior)' (not mentioned, Alex being 'really fat')

'Why a divorce from Scotland could be the ruin of us all: Mortgages up. Pensions down. The pound in your pocket worth 90p - and you'll even pay more for water' (but how will it affect house prices?)

and my favourite;

'Revealed: The German residents who will vote 'Ja' to Scottish independence (including one Herr Mittler)'

So when is the 'love bomb' happening?

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This led to a crisis of confidence in the Union that has never really abated; devolution has not sated this - as was hoped by the Blair government - but probably made matters a good deal more civilised; Scotland and the rest of Britain have at least been spared the 1918 General Election in Ireland scenario.

There's a crisis in Scottish party politics too. When Scottish Unionist dominance gave way to that of the Labour Party (not that Labour have actually expanded or at least until 2011, contracted in the geographical areas where it has been strong since the 30's) it was actually fairly seamless because strictly speaking there wasn't much between them. It was certainly less of a shock, though it's often forgotten, than the decline of the Liberals.

The problem today is a difficulity in determining what 'British' means in a political context. Labour were the party of devolution only in the sense they delivered it. Once they delivered it, there was a reluctance to do anything with it, even in comparison to the party in Wales under similar but more restrictive circumstances. Anything remotely 'radical' from 1999-2007 was thanks to the Liberal Democrats. The first sense something was wrong was the rise of the SSP even though it was a short lived experiment in vanity.

Now we have the SNP. On paper, they should be very easy to take down. They lack any coherent ideology or even consistency. You have the entire Scottish press at their necks to the extent the only cordial relationship they can manage is with the Scottish editions of the London press.

What the SNP does today, is provide a safety net for the Scottish electorate which allows them to wait for the inevitable sh-tstorm to kick off in the closing weeks and like fireworks going off at the factory, let their opposition burn out leaving the SNP blemish free. In the last days of the 2007 and 2011 campaigns Alex Salmond did something no other politician does; he dissappears. It's happening again, since the second debate some two weeks ago you've hardly seen a peep out of him. It gives his opponents the airtime and even sycophantic press after a while get bored of the narrative. So divisions are highlighted and so on. The close of the last two Scottish campaigns have seen politicians hang themselves by the rope he's left. It's possible it might be happening again.

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For fun here are the polls for the 1997 Devolution Referendum

Yes/No/DK

19 Jun 72-22-6
22 Aug 72-22-6
7 Sep 60-25-15
10 Sep 63-25-12
11 Sep (Actual) 74.2-25.7

On tax varying powers it passed 63.5 to 36.5. The last poll had it 48-40-12

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It also helped, that the Scottish Stuarts had ruled Britain one century long before 1704 (as the Welsh were proud of "their" Tudors). And Scotland was incredibly poor 300 years ago, immediately benefitting economically from the union. And that in the era of "the divine David [HUME]" England was intellectually a colony of his northern neighbours.

I don't think you can say that the Stuarts were especially 'popular' in Scotland; indeed, during the reign of Charles I in particular, they were (or he was) very unpopular (mind you, he alienated just about everybody in the Three Kingdoms, but nevermind...). Even the Scottish support that they received during the Jacobite uprisings (which did form the mainstay of them to be fair) was limited geographically (largely in the areas of Scotland where Catholicism was still predominant). Indeed, during the Rising of 1745, large numbers of Scottish troops fought against the Jacobites.

Regardless of Stewart un-popularity, much of that became a moot point when the Commonwealth took the step of beheading Charles I without any discussion with Scotland of which he was also king. Again in 1701, the Act of Succession passed by the English Parlimant settled on whom should succeed Queen Anne, the eventual last Stewart monarch without consulting Scotland. We passed the Act of Security in response which was met by the Alien Act which threatened Scotland with restricted movement of people and trade unless we made steps towards a formal Act of Union. And so it was.

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What will be the future of the SNP in an independent Scotland?

They would attempt to become Fianna Fail Alba (more or less). Whether they'd be successful in that is impossible to tell.

The SNP will sweep all before it in 2016 but without Salmond at the helm (he'll find something else to do) Nicola Sturgeon will lead and become the first FM. It will have a dominant hand in shaping the country. It will probably win in 2021. You're probably right that they will try and be a Scottish 'Fianna Fail'. One party always dominates Scotland and it has shifted from the early 20th Century from Liberal to Unionist to Labour and potentially now to the SNP. If the party holds together it may dominate politics for a generation. The electoral system however might make it the largest party, but the other parties can challenge if they come together.

Labour will suffer in the short term. Lamont will go. The Holyrood wing and the Westminster wing hate each other and will jostle for influence (and seats) in the 2016 election. Might do worse than they did in 2011. After that point, I think they will pick up. However in order to challenge the SNP they might find themselves having to go into some sort of coalition with the Conservatives (think Fine Gael/Labour but reversed in strength) and smaller liberal/green parties. I used to think the SNP would take their place to Labour's right post independence but I think they might sit more socially 'left' initially.

The Liberal Democrats start at such a low point that they will rebrand. Might stumble on for a few elections but given that their vote moved en masse to the SNP in 2011 and probably won't come back, the party might fold.

The Conservatives will get over the result; Ruth Davidson will step aside for Murdo Fraser and position themselves into the biggest cheerleader for the free market and probably become a little more socially conservative. Might actually start to recover.

The Greens will have a good election in 2016 but will remain a hostage to the fortunes of the larger parties.

Tommy Sheridan will be back. We'd see how long he lasts.

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TNS, with changes on last poll from them

Yes 50 (+8)
No 50 (-8)

Fieldwork: 27th August to 4 September.

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If Scotland vote yes, there is no way they'd get into the EU or NATO, right? I cannot see the UK (or whatever they would be called), Spain, or any other national with a secessionist movement allowing them in either group.

We will be allowed into NATO. It would not wish to leave this undefended;

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In other news, Prime Ministers Question Time is being suspended tomorrow with the party leaders travelling up to Scotland.

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So how is the counting process going to work, when will it actually take place and will there be an exit poll?

No exit poll. Polls close at 10pm. Counting done by local authority. Results announced throughout the very early morning. Final tally announced.

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Can you feel the love?

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10202662622079088

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Is there going to be a "unity rally"?

Probably not. Cameron, Miliband and Clegg are here on Wednesday. Nigel Farage is here on Friday and the Orange Order are marching 15,000 to 25,000 strong in Edinburgh at the weekend.

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Is there going to be a "unity rally"?

Probably not. Cameron, Miliband and Clegg are here on Wednesday. Nigel Farage is here on Friday and the Orange Order are marching 15,000 to 25,000 strong in Edinburgh at the weekend.

Will there be a 'secession rally'?

There was supposed to be one in the middle of last month, but the decision was made to divert the cost (which would have been near six figures) into canvassing.

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A good few thousand rUKers living in Scotland going without the vote next Thursday...

Over 700,000 actually.

What sounds very high. Who are they? And is this something the SNP did on purpose or just the result of some technical requirement in British election legislation?

If you are registered to vote in Scotland you can vote in the referendum. That's it.

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All three leaders are here but at separate events so far. No sign yet of them meeting together. John Prescott is in Rutherglen and made a joke about the English and Scottish football team coming together to 'beat the Germans' and went off message attacking the Tories (to his credit, you can't stop him!)

Cameron in Edinburgh says don't vote Yes just so you can 'kick the effing Tories'. His event is closed off. 'Yessers' are outside. It's like a strange carnival. Jim Sillars is entertaining the Socialists and Greens.

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So does that mean that this pollster is an outlier, or has the YES support peaked and is starting to collapse?

Look at what Al posted again. This poll is the same as the last one by the same company

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So does that mean that this pollster is an outlier, or has the YES support peaked and is starting to collapse?

Look at what Al posted again. This poll is the same as the last one by the same company

That doesn't mean they are wrong though.

But you can't say whether whether support is rising or falling if it's no change on the last poll by the same company. Survation are steady. Panelbase was steady. YouGov saw Yes up, TNS saw yes up. Most polling companies are now starting to iron out methodology, tweak for turnout etc. It's not an easy election to poll. A pollster could call the result wrong but technically be more accurate than a pollster that calls it right, but by too much.

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ICM

No 51
Yes 49

Without excluded's its

No 42 (-5)
Yes 40 (+2)
DK 17 (+3)

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The Zetlanders and Orcadians saying 'no' to independence for Scotland is not the same as saying that in the event of independence that they would wish to remain part of the UK and governed in effect, from London (given than Scotland had left) if that makes sense.

The might not vote for it, but they would go along with it.

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On the other hand, if they really did want to remain as part of the UK, it would be pretty hard for Shetland and Orkney at least, to be denied that.

Ironically, at least it would guarantee an open border policy and a reciprocal relaxation in trade. Supplying Lerwick directly from Newcastle-Upon-Tyne would be a logistical nightmare.

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_{*There are also certain - currently entirely theoretical - complications regarding the Act of Union, but those are best left undisturbed for now...}

To be fair so little of the Act of Union remains unamended or unappealed it's pretty much like the ship of Theseus at this point.

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SNP leader threatens scaremongering business leaders with "day of reckoning".

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2753279/Scotland-face-10-year-economic-slowdown-independence-warns-business-chief-fresh-blow-Salmond.html

Jim Sillars isn't a member of the SNP

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etKV3uZ-CeE

I'm somewhere at the far right 14 seconds in

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ICM

Yes 54
No 46

Opinium

No 53
Yes 47