India 2014

[jaichind]

India elections due in May 2014.  I think there have been big developments in India as they get geared up for 2014.  Namely Modi being made de facto PM candidate for BJP and JD(U) leaving NDA on Modi's elevation.  And it might make sense to start a thread on it as we get closer to election mode.  In India there are three modes for an election.  First there is a phase of horse trading where parties and even politicians figure which team/front they will belong.  Then there is the election itself.  After which there is another phase of horse trading after the election for government formation.  Right now there are four "teams": UPA, NDA, Third Front, and Forth Front.

UPA: INC, NCP, RLD, IUML, NC, AIMIM, KC.  
NDA: BJP, SS, SAD, RPI(A), NPP, HJC
Third Front: SP, Left Front, BJD, TDP, RJD, DMK, INLD, AGP, JD(S), JVMP, LJS, MDMK, PDP, VCK
Forth Front: BSP, AIADMK,  TMC, YSR Congress, TRS, DMDK, JMM, AUDF, BPF, NFP, SDF, SUCI, BVA, SWP, MNS.

JD(U) was in NDA but just left and will most likely be joining one of the other fronts.  It is a complex set of rules on which parties can join what fronts in the pre-election mode.  I will try to lay out those "rules."  To lay out the principles of these rules, some parties are regional rivals of each other in a state ergo cannot be together, other parties was born of anti-Congress movement so they cannot join UPA, others declare themselves to be secular and anti-communal ergo cannot be with BJP and ergo NDA.  Parties that claim to be secular have been with NDA in the past but if they broke up over the issue of secular-communal then are unlikely to rejoin NDA (like DMK) while those that broke up other issues (like TDP), might return to NDA, especially in the after election scenario.  

I would list out major players other than INC and BJP in relative order of importance and what fronts they can and cannot join.

BSP: Leader of the Forth Front and has all India aspirations but currently a UP regional party.  Rival of SP so will not join front with SP in it.  Makes sounds of secularism so is unlikely to join NDA but might support it after the elections.  Will support UPA if it thinks it will get it more clout in its battles with SP.
SP: UP regional party.  Leader of third front (which in 2009 was called forth front).  Cannot be in the same front as BSP (which rules out Forth Front) due to UP rivalries.  Projects strong secular image ergo NDA is not possible but can support UPA from the outside.
Left Front: Various left wing parties like CPI CPM and so on.  Concentrated in WB and Kerala.  Cannot join NDA due to strong secular outlook.  Cannot be in the same front as TMC due to WB rivalries.  Cannot join UPA due to anti Congress past and rivalries in Kerela.  But can support UPA from the outside.
TMC: Regional party and INC splinter in WB.  Rival of Left Front so it cannot be in same front as Left Front.  Other than that can join all fronts.  It makes noises of secularism so is more likely to support UPA over NDA.
NCP:  Maharashtra regional INC splinter.  Part of UPA and could in theory join Third or Forth front but is unlikely to join NDA given NCP past statements on secularism.
SS: Maharashtra regional Hindutava radical party and ergo can really only be part of NDA.
JD(U): Bihar regional party. Rival of RJD so cannot be in a front that includes RJD.  Recently left NDA over the Modi issue which is really partly secularism issue.  So is unlikely to go back to NDA for a while.  Other then that can join all fronts.
RJD: Bihar regional party.  Rival of JD(U) in Bihar so cannot be in a front that includes JD(U).  Is strongly secular so cannot be part of NDA.
TDP: AP regional party.   INC and YSR Congress are its main rival so it cannot join UPA or any front where YSR Congress.  Could potentially join NDA since it left NDA over non secular-communal issues.  
YSR Congress: AP regional INC splinter party. Rival of INC and TDP in AP so cannot be in the same front as either of the two.  Makes a lot of noises of secularism so is unlikely to join NDA.  More likely to support or even join UPA after elections.
DMK: TN Regional party.  Rival of AIADMK in TN so cannot be part of a front that includes AIADMK.  Says a lot of it being secular so is unlikely to be part of NDA even though it has been in NDA in the past.  
AIADMK:  Regional party in TN and main rival of DMK.  Can and have a record of joining all fronts.  One of the few parties that has a good relationship with Modi so it is possible it might support NDA after the elections.
RLD: Western UP regional party.  Can and have a record of joining all fronts.
IUML, NC, AIMIM: Muslim regional parties and obviously will not consider NDA but can join other fronts.
BJD: Orissa regional party.  INC is its main rival and it left NDA over the secular issue so it cannot join NDA or UPA.
SAD: Punjab regional party and part of NDA as part of its anti-Congress orientation and unlikely to join another other front.
INLD: Haryana regional party.  Rival of INC in Haryana so cannot join UPA but can be with any other front.
AGP: Assam regional party.  Rival of INC in Assam so cannot join UPA but can be with any other front.
JD(S): Karnataka regional party.  Rival of INC in Karnataka so cannot join UPA.  Is strongly secular so cannot be part of NDA.  Can support UPA from outside.
JVMP: Regional BJP splinter party in Jharkhand.  Can and have a record of joining all fronts.
LJS: Regional party in Bihar.  Very strong in terms of being secular so cannot join NDA but can be part of any other front.  Some rivalries with JD(U) but I think it can be overcome.
MDMK, PMK, VCK: Regional party in TN.  Can and have a record of joining all fronts.
TRS: AP regional party dedicated of Telegana independence from AP.  Will and have record of joining any front that will advance this agenda.
DMDK: TN regional party.  Rival with DMK and AIADMK so is unlikely to join a front with either party in it as it is trying to build itself up as a third pole in TN.  Beyond that can join any front.
JMM: Jharkhand regional party.  Can and have a record of joining all fronts.
AUDF: Assam regional party.  Supporters mostly Muslim so cannot support NDA but can join all other fronts.
KJP:  Karnataka BJP splinter party.  Can and could join all fronts.  More likely to join NDA since it has good relations with Modi who is now in charge at BJP.
MNS: Maharashtra regional party and splinter of SS.  Rival of SS over the radical Hindutva vote so in theory can join NDA in reality it is out in the cold as the UPA, Third Front, and Forth front all at least mouth the secularism party line.  
PDP: Regional party in Kashmir.   Rival of NC so cannot be in the same front as NC.  Has significant Muslim support so cannot join NDA.  Can join all other fronts.  
HJC: Haryana regional splinter of INC party.  Can join all fronts with the possible exception of UPA since it's breakup with INC was fairly recent and wounds still fresh.

In terms of level of cynicism and opportunism the most skilled players from above are AIADMK followed closely by BSP.  Both are led by powerful and egoistical women.  Jalayalitha for AIADMK and Mayawati for BSP.

Note there are several small parties that I can write similar profiles but I think they are too small to make a difference.  Besides, the smaller the party the less principles it has about joining fronts since its leverage is small.

As one can see, NDA is mostly backed into a corner in pre-election alliance possibilities especially with Modi at the BJP helm.  What BJP has to gamble on is that Modi bring it sweeping victories (mostly over INC) in the 150-160 seats where it can potentially win and hope that other parties that talks big on secularism will come to join NDA to get a share of the power after the election.

[DC Al Fine]

I don't understand Indian politics

[Famous Mortimer]

So I take it whatever front contains the Communists becomes the "Third Front" given the Communists historic position as the third strongest grouping behind Congress and non-Communist oppositionist groupings?

Why did the Communists switch from BSP to SP?

[jaichind]

So I take it whatever front contains the Communists becomes the "Third Front" given the Communists historic position as the third strongest grouping behind Congress and non-Communist oppositionist groupings?

Why did the Communists switch from BSP to SP?

Pretty much.  Back in 2009 the Left Front was with BSP as the SP created a Forth Front with RJD which was against both UPA, NDA and Third front (mostly due to SP BSP rivalries) but said they were ready to back UPA after the election.  As for the BSP and Left front breakup, it really came down to the fact that both BSP and Left Front has national aspirations but unrealistic assessments of their own strength so breakup eventually took place.  BTW, with all the flip flopping I expect to take place anything could change.

Now with JD(U) recently divorced, the suitors are lining up.  INC is making positive comments about JD(U) but I think it is not realistic that given the anti-INC history of JD(U) this would work.  The real race for the JD(U) is between Third and Forth fronts.  TMC is already reaching out to JD(U) to lure it to join the Forth Front which led to a panic in the Left Front rivals of TMC in the Third Front who then sent their own ambassadors to the JD(U) to lock them up as allies.  Third Front is in a disadvantage if you read my rules of alliances above as RJD is in the Third Front which is a rival of JD(U).

[jaichind]

An C-Voter Survey April 2013 survey poll has

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/neither-cong-nor-bjp-in-2014-c-voter-poll-shows-hung-result-705036.html

                             Vote Share          Seats
UPA                             24                   128
NDA                             31                   184
Third Front                  23                   111
Forth Front                  22                   120

Bear in mind this is before JD(U) leaving NDA which will subtract  2% from the NDA vote share and 20 seats at least.   So if this poll is indicative of the state of the race we will have a wild ride in 2014.  Of course if Modi is this massive game changer that the BJP hopes it is then it might be a NDA runway victory followed by horse trading after the elections to build a NDA government.

[jaichind]

As we get closer to the election we will see more of the following articles in the newspapers and reaching a crescendo a couple of weeks before the deadline for party nominations.

--------------------------------------------------------

<Politician A> has left <Party X> to join <Party Y> along with his/her followers.  Speaking in the presence of <Leader M> of <Party Y> with his/her followers, <Politician A> indicated that he/she was being sidelined in <Party X> and frustrated by the increasing autocratic nature of the way <Party X> was run and led by <Leader N who is most likely a rival of Leader M>.   <Politician A> also said that he/she was disturbed by the anti-People policies of <Party X> and decided that the only way he/she can fight for pro-People policies is to join <Party Y>.  <Politician A> concluded by saying that he/she does not seek any nomination for any office and only wishes to fight as a regular party worker for <Party Y> under the leadership of <Leader M> in the upcoming elections.

----------------------------------------------------------

Of course it will turn up in a couple of weeks that <Politician A> was indeed nominated by <Party Y> for a seat.  Of course if he/she was not we can look to another article like the one above related to <Politician A> where he would join some other <Party Z>.

[Zuza]

How it happened that several parties (TMC, DMK, JMM, RPI (A)) left the UPA and only one (RLD) joined it? Is this because Manmohan Singh's government becoming unpopular?

Are TMC, DMK and others still support the current cabinet? Without them UPA haven't majority in Lok Sabha.

Who are the most probable UPA candidates for PM?

[RogueBeaver]

UPA would be Singh or Rahul.

[jaichind]

How it happened that several parties (TMC, DMK, JMM, RPI (A)) left the UPA and only one (RLD) joined it? Is this because Manmohan Singh's government becoming unpopular?

Are TMC, DMK and others still support the current cabinet? Without them UPA haven't majority in Lok Sabha.

Who are the most probable UPA candidates for PM?

TMC - Departed from UPA over TMC disagreement over UPA candidate for President.  Real issue is TMC wants to take over the political space of populist anti-economic reforms in WB and beyond. Being part of a UPA government that is nominally for economic reforms gets in the way.  Plus TMC is betting it can win more seats in elections without INC since it would not have to allocate seats to INC.
DMK - UPA was trashed by AIADMK in assembly elections and INC broke off relations with DMK thinking that it was a sinking ship with an eye of roping in AIADMK for the next election.
JMM - After a hung assembly in Jkharhand, JMM broke its alliance with INC to join up with BJP to form a government which recently also collapsed.  Now JMM might re-join UPA to form a government with UPA in Jharhand. 
RPI(A) - A Maharashtra regional party for Dalits.  Given traditional animosity for Dalit based parties against the upper cast BJP, RPI(A) broke with tradition and formed an alliance with NDA in Maharashtra mainly to get more seat allocation next election.
RLD - Joined UPA as part of a deal to run as allies in UP assembly elections.  Note that back in 1999 RLD was allied with INC, 2004 with SP and 2009 with BJP. 

Note most of these reasons does not have much to do with popularity of UPA regime.  Of course its lack of popularity does not help.  It is mostly about regional state level political calculations.

As for UPA candidate for PM, it will most likely be Singh or Rahul Gandhi.  Main thing getting in Rahul's way is mostly himself as it is likely UPA will suffer a significant setback and Rahul might want want to stick his neck out for this.  Better to let Singh lead it to defeat and a hung parliament and then Rahul comes in as a white knight.   

[Harry Hayfield]

Every time I switch on NDTV 24x7 they are always talking about who's defecting to whom and who should be PM.

[jaichind]

Thinking about the BJP position where it will try to create a Modi wave in the without a bunch of allies, it really means that it is hoping that after the elections where NDA becomes by a large margin the largest alliance even though well short of majority, it can attract large "secular" parties to join to to share power.  

Problem with that is that significant parties that will be cynical enough to join the NDA after spending time barking about secularism are most likely AIADMK and BSP.  And it is a fact that both these parties should be really seen as snakes.  Modi as PM will be sitting in his cabinet meetings looking at AIADMK and BSP ministers in suits or dresses but they are just snakes.  Both parties will continue to blackmail a NDA in power for more than their fair share of the loot and keep on increasing their demands.  If you do not pay then they will stab you in the back.  The main reason is both these parties, more so than most other parities, are rule by personality cult where their leaders, Jayalalitha and Mayawati, are treated like gods. For either to be a junior partner at the federal level will be humiliating for them in front of their supporters.  So they have to keep on bring in benefits larger than what they deserve to square the circle in front of their followers and keep their god-like status.  

To see what I mean, see picture below on how a minister of the TN government greets his CM and leader, Jayalalitha.



Or the fact that hundreds of large status of Mayawati like those below constructed across UP during her years in power.

[Famous Mortimer]

AIADMK campaigns as secular? Didn't they ban religious conversions in their state?

[jaichind]

AIADMK campaigns as secular? Didn't they ban religious conversions in their state?

On paper they are.  AIADMK is a splinter party of DMK which in turn evolved from DK.  AIADMK broke with DMK over what it claims is the corruption of DMK ideals of Karunanidhi but still claims to descend from and support DMK founder Annadurai.  Annadurai was part of the atheist DK but did make DMK open to religion.  DMK under Annadurai would attack superstitions and religious exploitation but would never fight against the spiritual values of society.  In that sense it would be opposed to what it would call Obscurantism of the BJP Hindutava movement.  AIADMK on paper still claim to support these ideals and when it allies with INC would loudly proclaim its secular credentials.  When it allies with BJP it knows it goes against its founding ideology if focuses on governance and would claim that BJP is also a secular party.  When AIADMK bans religious conversions it stresses that it only seeks to ban conversions by the use of "force", "allurement" or "fraudulent means".  Usually when it does this it is sending a signal to BJP it will consider doing business with BJP in the near short term.   It is its way of saying to BJP that this secular stuff it talks about is all baloney but we have to mouth them because of our party's founding principles but worry not because in reality AIADMK is really just the Jayalalitha Party.

[Kitteh]

Is there any reliable political polling in India? My understanding was that pretty much all polling was unreliable at best and total crap at worst.

[Хahar 🤔]

Is there any reliable political polling in India? My understanding was that pretty much all polling was unreliable at best and total crap at worst.

Accurate polling requires a certain level of infrastructure which does not exist in India.

I'll repost what I had to say about the BJP potentially choosing Modi as its PM candidate:

Even in 2009 it seemed clear that the Congress was very likely to win in 2014, because the BJP's coalition had eroded to such an extent that it was no longer really feasible for it to win anything close to a majority. In the years since, the BJP has not exactly attempted to broaden its coalition, and if it nominates a fascist for PM (as it seems will be the case) it will mean giving up entirely on any hope of winning the election outright.

Going forward, I think we'll see a move away from the two-party Congress/BJP system that has existed at the Centre for the last fifteen years towards a dominant-party system of the kind that existed between the fall of the Janata Party and the victory of the BJP; while there might be governments formed without the Congress, they will frequently be unstable and even when stable will not be dominated by a single party. If there is to be a significant non-BJP opposition, it remains to be seen whence its nexus will arise; the obvious answer is UP, but we all remember the way the Mayawati-for-PM business fizzled out in 2009.

[jaichind]

Polling is not so great in India because of

1) A lot of people are hard to contact, especially in rural areas
2) Multiparty system where even if we get a accurate pulse on voting intentions it is almost impossible to figure out the distribution of votes to project seats
3) Politics now operate at the state level so one has to really poll each state at a time as there is no real national trend anymore like it was in the 1960s to 1980s.

Between 1989 and around say 2006, exit polls were accurate in the sense that if exit polls predict an opposition win then the opposition won in a landslide, if the exit polls predicted a neck to neck race, then the opposition won, and if the exit polls predict the ruling front winning by a signfiicant margin then it will be a narrow ruling front victory.  After 2006 even this rule did not hold as the anti-incumbancy rule also began to break down.

[jaichind]

My take on Modi is
a) I like his professed neo-liberal economic policies.
b) Gujurat did have fast economic growth his rule but I think that has more to do with the Gujurat recovery from the earthquake and 2002 riots.
c) He is more talk than action as Gujurat has good economic fundementals and a lot of development would have taken place with or without him
d) I dislike the fact that he allowed the 2002 riots which killed at least 5000 people just to win an election
e) At the head of BJP he will for sure turn off dalit, muslims, tribal, and christian voters. He will most likely motivate some upper and higher OBC voters to vote BJP.  There will be a polorization for and against BJP.
f) In this election it will be BJP is Modi and Modi is BJP.  For good for ill.
g) Modi pushed aside Advani, his political mentor, and grabed the leadership of BJP.  Advani saved Modi back in 2002 when PM Vajapyee wanted Modi removed for the riots.  Many people feel that NDA lost in 2004 because of the riots despite a popular NDA government.

[FredLindq]

Any news noe when JD (U) left the NDA?!
Will JD (U) join another fron and whcih?
Will BJP rope in other parties into the NDA?

[jaichind]

Any news noe when JD (U) left the NDA?!
Will JD (U) join another fron and whcih?
Will BJP rope in other parties into the NDA?

I guess I will try to summarize recent developments.  

1) JD(U) broke with BJP and forms a government on its on in Bihar.  INC supported JD(U) in non-confidence vote in Bihar raising the prospect that there might be an INC-JD(U) alliance.  I still think more likely is JD(U) joins a non-INC non-BJP front that does NOT have RJD in it.
2) INC to form government in Jharkhand with JMM as JMM re-joins UPA.  There are rumors that INC might rope in AJSU RJD or JD(U) to join this alliance.  Any of the three would create a powerful block for the 2014 elections in Jharkhand especially when JD(U) and BJP will not be allied.  It would almost force JVMP which is a splinter BJP party and was allied to INC until recently to join forces with BJP.
3) INC supported DMK in the upper house elections in TN raising talks that INC and DMK might revive their alliance that only broke up months ago.  AIADMK and the Left Front co-operated in this election.  AIADMK is still playing a deep game of going with the Left Front on the surface for 2014 but in reality going with BJP either before or after the election.  If it is INC-DMK and AIADMK-Left Front, then I suspect BJP and DMDK will get together.  If AIADMK goes with BJP then I can see DMK going with Left Front (mostly because DMK seems to be convinced that 2014 there will be a anti-INC wave in TN due to corruption scandals which many of, ironically, were created by DMK minsters) and then INC and DMDK will get together.    Either way, what is critical is which of the 3 blocks PMK and MDMK goes with as their vote base might make the difference between victory or defeat if the AIADMK government begins to lose is luster since being election in 2011.
4) There is talk that INC might now support Telegana state movement in a dramatic turnaround.  TRS already said ahead of time that if INC supported Telegana then it will merge with INC.  It is not clear if INC sees that as an advantage but if this rumor is true then INC will do better in Telegana in 2014 blunting the rise of BJP there.  Of course INC might end up losing support in the rest of AP to TDP and YSR Congress.  Of course this move might be a gambit to for the TDP and YSR Congress to announce their position on the Telegana issue.  
5) Of course what is driving all these INC activity is INC fears that SP would turn against UPA and support a voice of no confidence against the UPA.  The reason why SP would do this is that it has been a year since SP came into power in UP and SP want earlier general elections, perhaps in 2014 where it can cash in on the honeymoon period of the SP government.  The environment in UP in 2014 might not be as friendly to the SP as in 2013 vis-a-vis the BSP.

The configuration of the Third and Forth fronts continue to be dominated by the SP-BSP rivalry in UP and the TMC-Left Front rivalry in WB.  I am pretty sure one entity from each rivalry will form an alliance with one entity from of the other rivalry and that would be the basis for the two blocks as other parties joins one or the other.

[jaichind]

The Week National Opinion Poll
 
                          Vote Share           Seats
UPA                       31.7%                  184
NDA                       26.7%                  197
Others                   41.6%                  162

Note that NDA gets more seats than vote share mainly because distribution of NDA strength are uneven so NDA will win enough votes for seats in some places and be totally out of contention in others. So there are less wasted NDA votes.

NDA could have been in a strong position if it was not for JD(U) walking out of the coalition. This would have added another 25-30 seats to their total. With the elevation of Narendra Modi, the prospect of alliance widening is extremely dim in terms of getting more allies.  They will have to beat UPA by decisive margin to get post-election allies.

The UPA too have seen major desertions with JMM, DMK, and TMC leaving UPA. If you factor the impact of their desertions into both their seat and vote shares, it is seen that the UPA has managed to hold their own. The UPA already got JMM back since this poll and DMK might come soon.  Mamata's TMC  too would have no choice to go back to UPA with a begging bowl. If she decides otherwise, a Left-UPA tie-up would be a certainty. In Bihar, the UPA did not go with RJD-LJP combine in 2009, contesting separately. Now they can choose between the latter and JD(U). In UP too, they can choose between SP and BSP though it looks like they will choose Mayawati's BSP. An UPA-BSP alliance can besides UP can help the UPA in states like Delhi; Uttarkhand; Haryana; Punjab; Himachal Pradesh and to a more limited extent MP and Rajasthan. Since both TMC and SP have a strong Muslim base, it would be practically suicide for them to be part of the NDA, especially with Modi leading BJP

The survey said 32 per cent people felt Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi will be the best Prime Minister followed by Manmohan Singh (15 per cent) and Rahul Gandhi (13 per cent). Eight per cent people opined that Sonia Gandhi would be the best Prime Minister while five per cent each supported Mayawati and L K Advani for the top job followed by Mulayam Singh Yadav (4 per cent), Nitish Kumar (3 per cent) and Mamata Banerjee (3 per cent).

So people for INC leaders for PM are (15+13+8)=36 vs (32+5) = 37 for BJP.  So we can say that UPA and NDA are roughly equal in strength.

[jaichind]

As we get closer to the election we will see more of the following articles in the newspapers and reaching a crescendo a couple of weeks before the deadline for party nominations.

--------------------------------------------------------

<Politician A> has left <Party X> to join <Party Y> along with his/her followers.  Speaking in the presence of <Leader M> of <Party Y> with his/her followers, <Politician A> indicated that he/she was being sidelined in <Party X> and frustrated by the increasing autocratic nature of the way <Party X> was run and led by <Leader N who is most likely a rival of Leader M>.   <Politician A> also said that he/she was disturbed by the anti-People policies of <Party X> and decided that the only way he/she can fight for pro-People policies is to join <Party Y>.  <Politician A> concluded by saying that he/she does not seek any nomination for any office and only wishes to fight as a regular party worker for <Party Y> under the leadership of <Leader M> in the upcoming elections.

----------------------------------------------------------

Of course it will turn up in a couple of weeks that <Politician A> was indeed nominated by <Party Y> for a seat.  Of course if he/she was not we can look to another article like the one above related to <Politician A> where he would join some other <Party Z>.

It is already starting.  See

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/agp-leader-quits-to-join-bjp/1136941/

Veteran Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) leader and two-time minister Atul Bora on Tuesday resigned from the regional party and announced his decision to join the BJP.  Bora, a three-time MLA from Dispur, said that he would join the BJP in the presence of its national president Rajnath Singh who is arriving here on Wednesday. "I am disgusted with the internal problems, including the lack of democratic norms in the AGP. There is no scope left to put the AGP house in order. Given the situation, my well-wishers have been pressing me to quit and join the BJP," Bora said.

Which is similar to my template I gave above.

[FredLindq]

Are there any good news for BJP at all?! It seems like INC is a shoe in...
Any chanse off a third and fourth front upset in the next election?

[Famous Mortimer]

What does Trinamool mean?

[jaichind]

What does Trinamool mean?

Grassroots

[Famous Mortimer]

Oh man, I've been missing out on some punny headlines. Thanks.