Spanish local and regional elections, 2011

[Niemeyerite]

I wanted to make this topic before but I was very busy campaigning for PSOE here in Sanse (Madrid): PSOE should beat current PP major. But I really don't know... let's wait. This Sunday we'll know the results =S

PP is supposed to win handily overall.... But stranger things have happened in Spaniard politics...
People in 13 of our 17 Autonomic Comunities will decide their next presidents, and Ceuta and Melilla too. Also, we will decide our next major in every city or village in Spain.

Asturias: PSOE's candidate is leading in polls, because conservatives are splitted between PP's candidate and Francisco Alvarez Cascos, former VP with Aznar, who has created his own party: FAC. I'd call it a toss-up/tilts conservative majority (PP+FAC). the election will be close. we don't know if PSOE+ IU or PP + FAC will get a majority.

Cantabria: PP is leading, as always, in Cantabria. However, PRC's candidate and current president Miguel Angel Revilla is the most popular politician of Spain. I think PRC+PSOE will get a majority, as usual. But PP is very strong this year. Leans PRC/PSOE majority

Navarra: UPN, formerly PP's navarran party, is leading in polls, like in 207. PSOE and Na-Bai are fighting for the 2nd position. PP will likely finish 4th. It's possible a UPN-PP government could happen, but unlikely. Also, a Na-Bai-PSOE government isn't impossible... But the most likely outcome is a UPN-PSOE alliance, like in 2007. So, LIKELY UPN coalition

La Rioja: the same history of always... PP and PSOE remain close but then PP wins an absolute majority. LIKELY PP

Aragon: two things are clear here. PSOE won't be as strong as it's always been here and the next president will have to form a big coalition to be able to govern. I'd say this election is a TOSS-UP. PP could win the election and form a coalition with PAR or PSOE could win or loose but govern with CHA or IU, or even with PAR, like now.

Valencia: Valencia's PP is the most corrupt party in Europe, probably. But Valencianos are very conservative... SAFE PP

Murcia: it should be called southern Valencia. SAFE PP

Baleares: the question is: will PP get a majority??? More probably than not. But if not, PSOE's candidate and current president, Antich, will be probably the next President, again. LEANS PP

Madrid: I live here... it would be wonderful if Tomas Gomez won with the support of IU... but SAFE PP

Castilla y Leon: SAFE PP. no more, no less... however, PSOE's candidate, Oscar Lopez, should be elected President in 2015 or 2019...

Extremadura: TOSS-UP between PP and PSOE. but IU is a factor here, and commies will supoort current pres. Fernandez-Vara. However, PP isn't that far from a supermajority... so, LEANS PSOE-IU coalition

Ceuta: SAFE PP no matter what

Melilla: see Ceuta

Canarias: who will get more representatives? This election is a 3-way toss-up. PP, PSOE and CC are tied. But CC will probably elect a president again, because PP won't support a PSOE president and viceversa. so, the least bad option for the 2 parties is CC... TOSS UP but really LEANS CC PRESIDENCY

And here we have the big battle...

CASTILLA-LA MANCHA: PP always wins this community in General elections. However, PSOE always wins regional elections. Current president Jose Maria Barreda is beloved by manchegos... but PP's candidate is PP's general secretarie Maria Dolores de Cospedal and people there really hate Zapatero. so the question is... will they vote thinking about Castilla-La Mancha (Barreda wins), or will they vote thinking about national PSOE, Zapatero, and Spain in general (Cospedal wins) PURE TOSS-UP.
My heart says Barreda wins. My brain says Cospedal...

[RodPresident]

Julio, why PSOE vetoed a left-wing coalition in Navarra in 2007. Something linked to Basque politics (PNV support conditioned in reciprocity for Lehendakari and/or agreement for PP support in Basque Country)?

[Niemeyerite]

Julio, why PSOE vetoed a left-wing coalition in Navarra in 2007. Something linked to Basque politics (PNV support conditioned in reciprocity for Lehendakari and/or agreement for PP support in Basque Country)?

Na-Bai used to be the political ETA in Navarra. But they changed their minds. Now I'm sure people in Na-Bai oppose violence and are as democrats as PP or PSOE. But the problem was that, in 2007, it was a bit ilogical to form a coalition with a nationalist party from the "izquierda abertzale" (ETA was strong by that year)... and UPN isn't PP. In 2007, UPN had two wings: a regionalist and more moderate wing, and then the conservative/ PP wing.
So, a coalition UPN-PSOE wasn't THAT strange... it was, IMO, the best thing PSOE could have done...

This year, however, things are different. Na-Bai is definitely a democratic party. If Na-Bai PSOE gets a majority, they should elect a President. But that's unlikely, and considering UPN and PP aren't the same party today, UPN-PSOE coalition is OK.

[SPQR]

What time will the first results come out?

[Niemeyerite]

What time will the first results come out?

By 8:30 PM, I expect.

I've just came back from voting with my father... I, obviously, can't vote, but he's voted PSOE. hopefully, we will upset PP here in San Sebastian de los Reyes.... I'll tell you later

[Harry Hayfield]

I miss having TVE on Sky television. I always liked their election programmes (especially when they did regional exit polls). Does TVE offer a live (and non restricted) stream of their election programmes and if so, what time does it start on the BST scale (CET -1)?

[Niemeyerite]

I miss having TVE on Sky television. I always liked their election programmes (especially when they did regional exit polls). Does TVE offer a live (and non restricted) stream of their election programmes and if so, what time does it start on the BST scale (CET -1)?

http://resultados2011.mir.es/ini99v.htm

Yes, I think TVE offers it You can always go to http://www.rtve.es/ and search results.. by I recomend this page:

http://resultados2011.mir.es/ini99v.htm

I think you can get the first results by 7:30 (British time)

[Hash]

http://welections.wordpress.com/2011/05/22/liveblogging-spain-2011/

[SPQR]

I am not sure how the electoral system works...how come that a party can have more votes and less seats?

[Hash]

Tonight's winner:

[Niemeyerite]

I am not sure how the electoral system works...how come that a party can have more votes and less seats?

because our voting system is a sh**t... it works more or less like in the USA... one can win the popular vote, but for example, you can loose florida by some votes and loose the election... that's the case here... votes in autonomic communities are splitted in provinces.

PP carries everything. Extremadura could go either way. PSOE carries Asturias but a FAC-PP coalition is likely.

Sanse is PP...

I'm really sad...

[Hash]

Results in Euskadi:
PNV 30.05
Bildu 25.45
PSE-EE 16.34
PP 13.53
EB-B 3.19
Aralar 2.96
Bildu wins most seats (953) vs 872 for PNV

Bildu wins Donostia, PNV wins majority in Bilbao, PP plurality in Vitoria with 3-way tie for second. Bildu wins Guipuzkoa Juntas Provinciales.

[Hash]

PSOE gains Cuenca from PP. What's going on there? Did the PP incumbent eat a baby or what?

[Sam Spade]

I said back in late 2008 to one particularly famous denizen of this forum that I wouldn't want to be in power at that time.  I still don't.  And not for quite a while yet.  Except maybe in Iceland or a dictatorship.

[RodPresident]

Now, left is with few choices. In Asturias, PSOE can go to support a FAC government only to prevent PP as minor partner. In Canarias, prop up Coalicion Canaria against PP. In Aragon, it is all is on PAR hands. Navarra will be a great place, if PSOE hold nose and go to a left-wing anti-UPN coaliton or let them on power. It looks by now, that Patxi López will be ejected in Basque Country. Now, I hope that new PP presidents to be like Scott Walker and by 2012, left get power again with a coalition (PSOE-IU-and left autonomists).

[Dan the Roman]

I said back in late 2008 to one particularly famous denizen of this forum that I wouldn't want to be in power at that time.  I still don't.  And not for quite a while yet.  Except maybe in Iceland or a dictatorship.

Dictators don't seem to be doing so well either right now. Ask Saleh or Assad.

[Niemeyerite]

PSOE gains Cuenca from PP. What's going on there? Did the PP incumbent eat a baby or what?

Yes, Cuenca was supposed to be a toss-up.. and PSOE won, with the help of Barreda, obviously... also, cuenca's major stays more time in Madrid than in Cuenca, like Cospedal...

Now, left is with few choices. In Asturias, PSOE can go to support a FAC government only to prevent PP as minor partner. In Canarias, prop up Coalicion Canaria against PP. In Aragon, it is all is on PAR hands. Navarra will be a great place, if PSOE hold nose and go to a left-wing anti-UPN coaliton or let them on power. It looks by now, that Patxi López will be ejected in Basque Country. Now, I hope that new PP presidents to be like Scott Walker and by 2012, left get power again with a coalition (PSOE-IU-and left autonomists).

No, I doubt PSOE will support FAC. FAC is to the right of PP, and a lot of PSOE voters wouldn't understant that coalition.. so no, that would be good for today, bad for tomorrow (regarding 2012 presidential elections).

And in Nafarroa, it's unlikely PSOE will choose to form a coalition with left parties.. because they were the most voted left party and Bildu wouldn't support them

[Hash]

More useless plugs: http://welections.wordpress.com/2011/05/23/spain-2011/