2012 US House elections in California

[timothyinMD]

Dems claim CA is their cash cow, I don't see it

SAFE: 1, 4, 8, 22, 23, 25, 31, 39, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50 (13)
Most likely: 10, 36, 52 (3)
Slight lean: 7, 21, 26 (3)

Seats also in play: 3, 9, 16, 24, 41, 47

Even if Republicans lose all 3 of those lean seats, we still have 16, only a loss of 3 as opposed to the 5-8 seat gain the Dems were crowing about one year ago

[smoltchanov]

Way too optimistic. Democrats are at least "equal bets" in CA-26, 41 and 52, and Republicans will win 0 out of 3, 9, 16 and 24. Not sure about 7th.... The only real Democratic flop was in 31th..

[timothyinMD]

Way too optimistic. Democrats are at least "equal bets" in CA-26, 41 and 52, and Republicans will win 0 out of 3, 9, 16 and 24. Not sure about 7th.... The only real Democratic flop was in 31th..

Republicans will be very competitive in 16 and 24 for sure

[Miles]

Democrat seats Republicans have a chance of taking: 3, 9, 16, 24

Democratic seats.

Please refer to the party properly.

[DrScholl]

CA-26 is not safe Republican, Strickland didn't even carry it in his run for Controller in 2010. Cook has it at Toss-up and it's expected to be one of the most expensive races. Way too favorable ratings for Republicans here.

[timothyinMD]

Oh good call.  26 was supposed to go in my "lean" column, not safe column.  I'll make the correction

Same disclaimer I give every time I make predictions. I believe 2012 will be a pro-GOP election (Romney wins, GOP Sen+House), accordingly I believe Repubs will win many close seats.. even in California

In the end I think Dems will retain 3, 9, 47 but I think Republicans are going to have a surprisingly good year in CA house races.  I think we'll do no worse than a -1, which after the predictions made right when this map came out, is a win

[Torie]

CA-26 is not safe Republican, Strickland didn't even carry it in his run for Controller in 2010. Cook has it at Toss-up and it's expected to be one of the most expensive races. Way too favorable ratings for Republicans here.

This seat is hard to predict, in part because a moderate Pub who ran as an independent got so many votes in the primary. It is tough to predict how her votes will break in November. But toss up seems about right. Strickland is not the best candidate in the world.

[timothyinMD]

CA-26 is not safe Republican, Strickland didn't even carry it in his run for Controller in 2010. Cook has it at Toss-up and it's expected to be one of the most expensive races. Way too favorable ratings for Republicans here.

This seat is hard to predict, in part because a moderate Pub who ran as an independent got so many votes in the primary. It is tough to predict how her votes will break in November. But toss up seems about right. Strickland is not the best candidate in the world.

Why did Parks try to run Indy?  She may have gotten more votes if she ran Republcan

[DrScholl]

She switched because she's too moderate for Republicans. In 2010, Strickland's wife ran against her for the Board of Supervisors and ran a negative campaign against her from the right, which failed, because Parks won re-election by over 20 points.

[smoltchanov]

Way too optimistic. Democrats are at least "equal bets" in CA-26, 41 and 52, and Republicans will win 0 out of 3, 9, 16 and 24. Not sure about 7th.... The only real Democratic flop was in 31th..

Republicans will be very competitive in 16 and 24 for sure

Strongly disagree. Costa is far from being strongest imaginable candidate, but republican candidate is even weaker. And many Republicans in CA-24 passionately hate Maldonado, because of his "moderation". They will better lose to Capps then vote for such "renegade". As idiotic as it is....

[hopper]

Geez even Maldonado and Parks can't run as Moderate Republicans in CA of all places. I'm dissapointed about this as a Northeast Republican.

[Holmes]

Haha. Hahahaha. Maldonado. What a loser. Haha.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Turnout was obviously better for the Republicans than the Democrats in the election earlier this month. That screwed the Democrats with CA-31 thanks to our undemocratic system, but won't matter for the races in November.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Haha. Hahahaha. Maldonado. What a loser. Haha.

I truly hope he is defeated, since putting this garbage top two system on the ballot was one of many things he required in order to go along with one of those required 2/3rds majority votes to pass the state budget. California has this sh**tty system just because he thought it would be better for himself to win elections. "Moderate" or not, he is garbage.

[smoltchanov]

Turnout was obviously better for the Republicans than the Democrats in the election earlier this month. That screwed the Democrats with CA-31 thanks to our undemocratic system, but won't matter for the races in November.

Giving people (ALL people, not only "party activists") right to decide who is better qualified to be their representative is undemocratic? Very original. You and i have very different definicions of what "democratic" is...