Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread

[IceSpear]

Rasmussen: D+6

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

#Dominating
#ExcellentNews

[IceSpear]

The pundits keep telling me a GOP wave is a certainty, but it doesn't seem to be panning out so far.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

[IceSpear]

Pew: D+2

[IceSpear]

CNN: D+4

This Republican wave I keep hearing about is running out of time to materialize...

[IceSpear]

The pundits keep telling me a GOP wave is a certainty, but it doesn't seem to be panning out so far.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

Even more relevant now.

June 25: D+1.4
Now: D+2.5

[IceSpear]

The pundits keep telling me a GOP wave is a certainty, but it doesn't seem to be panning out so far.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

Even more relevant now.

June 25: D+1.4
Now: D+2.5

Exactly. Democrats have lead or tied for the past 15 generic congressional polls now going back all the way to the beginning of June. And for the past 23 generic polls, all the way back to the beginning of May, Republicans have just had the lead in one single one. Doesn't exactly scream a Republican landslide take over to me either.

They have their narrative and they're sticking to it...

[IceSpear]

Lets keep in mind that democrats need (probably) at least a 2 point lead in the generic congressional polls in order to gain seats in the house, and they would probably need at least an 8 point lead to take over the house, with the way its gerrymandered and set up.

Oh, I'm not saying Democrats will take the House or even gain seats. I'm just mocking the "Republican wave!/2010 redux!" media narrative.

[IceSpear]

Generic congressional polls have generally underestimated GOP support while overestimating Democrat support. Based on current trends, GOP are on track to gain at least a dozen seats.
By the way, most marginal house seats are held by Democrats.

This is factually untrue. In fact, in the last 3 elections, the generic ballot has underestimated DEMOCRATIC support.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2012_generic_congressional_vote-3525.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2008_generic_congressional_vote-2173.html

[IceSpear]

WaPo/ABC

Q1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job?

Approve- 41%
Disapprove- 51%

Q2. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of The Democratic Party?

Favorable- 49%
Unfavorable- 46%

Q3. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of The Republican Party?

Favorable- 35%
Unfavorable- 60%

With numbers like that, you'd think Democrats would be leading by more on the generic ballot than they actually are. Strange.

[IceSpear]

New Rasmussen poll
Republicans 42%
Democrats 38%

Is the Republican wave materializing? This is the best Rasmussen poll Republicans have has sense after the failed health care.gov roll out last year.

Apparently not. CBS poll released today: D+4.

[IceSpear]

WaPo: Democrats lead 41-37 overall, but trail 40-47 with enthusiastic voters.

Luckily, as we saw in 2012, an unenthusaistic vote counts just as much as an enthusiastic one.

[IceSpear]

Fox News:

Democrats- 46%
Republicans- 39%

Favorables

Democrats- 47/45
Republicans- 42/50


Marvelous news!

#2010redux #GOPlandslide

[IceSpear]

Pew Research Center: Democrats lead 47/42 on the generic ballot, but Republicans are twice as likely to feel optimistic about the midterms.

Well considering the media and pundits have been endlessly ranting about a GOP wave/2010 redux for a while now, it's not surprising Republicans are more optimistic. What is surprising is that the media continues to try to drive this narrative despite it contradicting their own polling data.

[IceSpear]

Did FOX seriously just go from D+7 to R+7 in a month? When nothing particularly interesting or game changing happened in said month?

[IceSpear]

BREAKING: REPUBLICAN WAVE COLLAPSES, DEMOCRATS SURGE BACK INTO A 3% LEAD

LOL. Man, Ras is all over the place this cycle.

[IceSpear]

CNN says 47-45 for the Democrats in their new poll of likely voters:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/09/30/9.30.poll.pdf

Republicans led by 4 points in their previous poll.

Hardly consistant with a so-called "Republican-wave" building, as some say ...

At this point in 2010, all polls showed a 5-10% GOP lead.

#2010redux

[IceSpear]

Regardless, it seems pretty clear that this won't be another 2010. In the entire month of October in 2010, Dems only lead in 2 generic ballot polls.

[IceSpear]

CBS has R+6, which is actually 1 point less than their last poll which was R+7. #Demwavebuilding

But seriously, pretty bad news. It seems like there's two groups of pollsters: one which sees a virtual stalemate, and one which sees an impending Republican wave. One group is going to look very silly in a month.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/will-obama-be-a-driving-force-for-midterm-voters/

[IceSpear]

Just when you thought things couldn't get any weirder...

Reason-Rupe has Democrats ahead by 9 points. Their last poll in August was D+1...

http://reason.com/assets/db/14128084586864.pdf

[IceSpear]

Gallup: R+1

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/Gallup_101014.pdf

Ipsos: D+1

http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=13949

Pollster currently has it at an exact tie, 43.5-43.5.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-national-house-race

[IceSpear]

dat dem momentum

Yeah, certainly no 2010, that's for sure.

[IceSpear]

NBC/WSJ:

RV: Dems lead 48-43
LV: Doesn't say??
"Most interested voters": GOP leads 51-44

Not sure why they didn't poll LV...

The world I love, the tears I drop, to be part of the wave can't stop...

[IceSpear]

Politico has Democrats up slightly.

Wait a second. POLITICO of all places has Democrats leading the generic ballot? Among likely voters?! This election cycle is so freaky. Mixed signals everywhere you look.

[IceSpear]

Pew: Dems lead 47-46

The Democratic Wave continues to build!!

Their last poll was R+3...this is a pretty big deal considering Pew's reputation. I doubt it will interfere with the pundits "2010 redux" narrative though.

[IceSpear]

Democracy Corps: Tie (46-46).

http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/990/102114_DCOR_fq_for%20website.pdf

Pollster currently has R+1 (46-45). At this point in 2010, Republicans were leading the generic ballot by 5-8 points (depending upon your source).