ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[South Dakota Democrat]

North Dakota is the seat I'm the most pessimistic about, tbh.

[Nathan Towne]

I would not use this statistic, as the tariff situation, which did bring down his approvals in the state, is hard to see. Just use his current approval from Gallup in the state, which pegs it at 57% currently. And, while I do believe Gallup is a good source, its always good to take other sources, such as MC, Emerson, Yougov and other state by state approvals.

The idea that ND is losing its competativeness makes little sense. Yes, the Dems were devastated during the Obama years, but so were they in WV, MT, KY, and WI, and it seems like they are making a comeback in all of these states.

And for the fourth thing, you highlight my entire argument. The voters approve of Heidi only a little  bit less than they value Trump, according to Gallup numbers. They trust her. In fact, Cramer actually has a low approval, even though he should have the higher one, according to partisanship. That is a good sign for Heidi. Again, I view this as a tossup race, but I dont think either candidate has the advantage here.

The record certainly indicates that North Dakota has become a less competitive State over the last decade or so. It is possible, of course, that this trend will reverse, but that has undoubtedly been the trend. Furthermore, the President has now begun to actively campaign for Cramer, portraying Heitkamp, accurately in my view, as a consistently left-wing vote on most major issues. Furthermore, once insulated following re-election, the likelihood that she will cross party lines decreases dramatically which is a message that is being clearly articulated to North Dakota voters. Heitkamp is going to face a tremendous amount of pressure by the time of the election, so it is going to be difficult for her to win. Barring something substantial which negatively impacts the Republican party in the State between now and then, Heitkamp must be characterized as an underdog at this point. 

[Bidenworth2020]

I would not use this statistic, as the tariff situation, which did bring down his approvals in the state, is hard to see. Just use his current approval from Gallup in the state, which pegs it at 57% currently. And, while I do believe Gallup is a good source, its always good to take other sources, such as MC, Emerson, Yougov and other state by state approvals.

The idea that ND is losing its competativeness makes little sense. Yes, the Dems were devastated during the Obama years, but so were they in WV, MT, KY, and WI, and it seems like they are making a comeback in all of these states.

And for the fourth thing, you highlight my entire argument. The voters approve of Heidi only a little  bit less than they value Trump, according to Gallup numbers. They trust her. In fact, Cramer actually has a low approval, even though he should have the higher one, according to partisanship. That is a good sign for Heidi. Again, I view this as a tossup race, but I dont think either candidate has the advantage here.

The record certainly indicates that North Dakota has become a less competitive State over the last decade or so. It is possible, of course, that this trend will reverse, but that has undoubtedly been the trend. Furthermore, the President has now begun to actively campaign for Cramer, portraying Heitkamp, accurately in my view, as a consistently left-wing vote on most major issues. Furthermore, once insulated following re-election, the likelihood that she will cross party lines decreases dramatically which is a message that is being clearly articulated to North Dakota voters. Heitkamp is going to face a tremendous amount of pressure by the time of the election, so it is going to be difficult for her to win. Barring something substantial which negatively impacts the Republican party in the State between now and then, Heitkamp must be characterized as an underdog at this point. 

exactly, no one cares about rock bottom soy prices in the most agricultural state in the union

[Rhenna]

Pure toss up at the moment, but I think ND will come home for Heidi. If she can beat Berg despite a large deficit in the polls in a neutral year, she can beat Cramer with relatively tight polls in a strong Democratic year.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Easy GOP pick-up, clearly:

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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/trump-s-key-heitkamp-re-election-battle-north-dakota-n893706

I don't think anyone is arguing that she won't get crossover votes.  Clearly she will, otherwise she'd lose by 30-40 points.  The question is whether there will be enough of those voters for her to win.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Heitkamp is a brilliant person and I am proud of her regardless of the outcome of this race.

[Zaybay]

ND is a state where personality really matters. Cramer is rather poor in this category, where as Heidi is excellent. Sometimes, I wonder why we all worry about her, since she was losing polling by a large margin in a neutral year against the state congressman, and is now neck and neck with the state congressman in a very Blue year. But you can never be too careful.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

ND is a state where personality really matters. Cramer is rather poor in this category, where as Heidi is excellent. Sometimes, I wonder why we all worry about her, since she was losing polling by a large margin in a neutral year against the state congressman, and is now neck and neck with the state congressman in a very Blue year. But you can never be too careful.

It's never comfy when your incumbent is consistently down in a super red state. She could win but it's quite obvious why not even Red Atlasians are not comfy here.

[South Dakota Democrat]

ND is a state where personality really matters. Cramer is rather poor in this category, where as Heidi is excellent. Sometimes, I wonder why we all worry about her, since she was losing polling by a large margin in a neutral year against the state congressman, and is now neck and neck with the state congressman in a very Blue year. But you can never be too careful.

I wish people would stop saying "there was a polling error that underestimated her in 2012, so it will this time too."  That's just not how it works.  Polling underestimated Dems in 2010 and 2012, but in 2014 it massively underestimated the GOP.  2016 it also underestimated the GOP (but not by as much as people say).  It really does no good to say this is safe - it's clearly not safe.  (You didn't say it was safe, per se, but wondered why we should worry about her.)  I'm not saying she'll definitely lose, but the notion that she doesn't have anything to worry about is just not supported by the evidence.

I understand the argument that personality matters in these campaigns.  I come from South Dakota, where it was much the same way for many years.  South Dakota often elected Democrats to Congress.  The thing about that though, is that it's true until it isn't.  Daschle was popular and had no trouble getting elected, until 2004.  Same with McGovern, until 1980.  Same with Herseth (in the House), until 2010.  Tim Johnson, who retired in 2014, almost certainly would have lost as well.  You're treating these things like they're absolute rules that can't be broken.

Additionally, ND has swung to the right considerably in recent times.  Trump won it by almost 40 points.  Hoeven got over 75% of the vote in his reelection.  It was probably easier for her to win in 2012 than it is now.

The national environment may help her, so I'm not counting her out.  But to be under any illusion that she doesn't have anything to worry about or that Dems shouldn't be very concerned about this race is just malpractice, in my view.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I don't think anyone is arguing that she won't get crossover votes.  Clearly she will, otherwise she'd lost by 30-40 points.  The question is whether there will be enough of those voters for her to win.

Kent Conrad (D) won reelection by almost 40 points two years after Bush's 28-point win in 2004. Yes, Heitkamp’s no Conrad and the state is somewhat more Republican now than 12 years ago, but somehow I think people are underestimating how many swing voters there are in ND and too fixated on the 2016 results. Special elections have shown rural voters starting to sour on Trump, and with the trade war going on, the Democratic-leaning environment and given Heitkamp's strengths as a campaigner/candidate, rating this Lean or Likely R would be foolish.

That's really not comparable, as Conrad was running against someone no one had ever heard of that year.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I understand the argument that personality matters in these campaigns.  I come from South Dakota, where it was much the same way for many years.  South Dakota often elected Democrats to Congress.  The thing about that though, is that it's true until it isn't.  Daschle was popular and had no trouble getting elected, until 2004.  Same with McGovern, until 1980.  Same with Herseth (in the House), until 2010.  Tim Johnson, who retired in 2014, almost certainly would have lost as well.  You're treating these things like they're absolute rules that can't be broken.

All the years you mentioned were massive GOP wave years, though. And even in 2004, Daschle only lost very narrowly. When was the last time a Democratic Senator representing ND/SD/MT/WV was defeated in a Democratic wave year?

Sure, that's why I'm not ruling her out.  I just get very frustrated when people are saying this is going to be easy/a cake walk.  She might win, but I'd bet my bottom dollar that it would be a close race if she did.

[Zaybay]

ND is a state where personality really matters. Cramer is rather poor in this category, where as Heidi is excellent. Sometimes, I wonder why we all worry about her, since she was losing polling by a large margin in a neutral year against the state congressman, and is now neck and neck with the state congressman in a very Blue year. But you can never be too careful.

I wish people would stop saying "there was a polling error that underestimated her in 2012, so it will this time too."  That's just not how it works.  Polling underestimated Dems in 2010 and 2012, but in 2014 it massively underestimated the GOP.  2016 it also underestimated the GOP (but not by as much as people say).  It really does no good to say this is safe - it's clearly not safe.  (You didn't say it was safe, per se, but wondered why we should worry about her.)  I'm not saying she'll definitely lose, but the notion that she doesn't have anything to worry about is just not supported by the evidence.

I understand the argument that personality matters in these campaigns.  I come from South Dakota, where it was much the same way for many years.  South Dakota often elected Democrats to Congress.  The thing about that though, is that it's true until it isn't.  Daschle was popular and had no trouble getting elected, until 2004.  Same with McGovern, until 1980.  Same with Herseth (in the House), until 2010.  Tim Johnson, who retired in 2014, almost certainly would have lost as well.  You're treating these things like they're absolute rules that can't be broken.

Additionally, ND has swung to the right considerably in recent times.  Trump won it by almost 40 points.  Hoeven got over 75% of the vote in his reelection.  It was probably easier for her to win in 2012 than it is now.

The national environment may help her, so I'm not counting her out.  But to be under any illusion that she doesn't have anything to worry about or that Dems shouldn't be very concerned about this race is just malpractice, in my view.

You are correct. The polls underestimated Ds in 2012, and overestimated in 2014. But this is ND im talking about, the king of terrible polling. Live calling polls are banned in the state, and partisan registration is not a thing, so polling from ND is always terrible. Im not assuming a polling error is occurring, Im assuming that polling is terrible, like it is every year.

And you are right that personality is not everything. TBH, Im still hoping that personality is still an important factor.

ND is also a small state, so wild swings can be caused by only 20,000 voters switching ballots. MT went from a neutral state, to R+20 in just a short 8 years.

[YE]

The Dakotas are very elastic and have a long history of sending Democrats to Congress. It’s really not hard to imagine Heitkamp winning in a D wave especially with Trump reckless ways of doing tarrifs and in a state that is likely to be affected by such tarrifs.

[Ebsy]

Big news:

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1023989524865536000

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Big news:

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1023989524865536000

Yay!

[Politician]

Big news:

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1023989524865536000

Well, they support Heitkamp.

[Zaybay]

Big news:

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1023989524865536000

I know Heitkamp supported their degregulation bill, but...wow. I dont know if this is telling on how good Heitkamp is, how bad Cramer is, or how badly the Kochs are realizing they are losing their sway over the D party.

[Gass3268]

Big news:

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1023989524865536000

I know Heitkamp supported their degregulation bill, but...wow. I dont know if this is telling on how good Heitkamp is, how bad Cramer is, or how badly the Kochs are realizing they are losing their sway over the D party.

I've read they are pissed on the tariffs and they want to make an example out of someone.

[KingSweden]

Big news:

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1023989524865536000

I know Heitkamp supported their degregulation bill, but...wow. I dont know if this is telling on how good Heitkamp is, how bad Cramer is, or how badly the Kochs are realizing they are losing their sway over the D party.

I've read they are pissed on the tariffs and they want to make an example out of someone.

In which case it makes sense to make an example of Cramer, since Heidi won’t be as hostile to them as others might be

[Fuzzy Bear]

Heitkamp is someone who could really get screwed over the SCOTUS nomination, if she votes no she gives up any pretense of being a moderate and likely loses several centrist/conservative votes. If she votes yeas she risks alienating the far left that is funding her campaign

Heitkamp's a Democrat at heart with a voting record containing necessary accomodations.  If the left can't deal with that and still fork over the money, they are foolish.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Heitkamp is someone who could really get screwed over the SCOTUS nomination, if she votes no she gives up any pretense of being a moderate and likely loses several centrist/conservative votes. If she votes yeas she risks alienating the far left that is funding her campaign

Heitkamp's a Democrat at heart with a voting record containing necessary accomodations.  If the left can't deal with that and still fork over the money, they are foolish.

[IceSpear]

Posting this solely for MT Treasurer's reaction:

North Dakota nasty: GOP makes Heitkamp top target for defeat

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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/20/north-dakota-senate-heitkamp-cramer-gop-787808

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She's very confident in how elastic ND is!

[Zaybay]

Posting this solely for MT Treasurer's reaction:

North Dakota nasty: GOP makes Heitkamp top target for defeat

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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/20/north-dakota-senate-heitkamp-cramer-gop-787808

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She's very confident in how elastic ND is!

The NRSC and Gardner aren’t exactly known for making smart decisions, especially this election cycle lol.

[OneJ]

Aren’t we talking about the same people who thought it was a smart idea to dump millions against Baldwin?

[MT Treasurer]

Paging MT Treasurer:

https://m.soundcloud.com/user-765340169-697541373/holmes-north-dakota-senate-race-is-in-the-bag-for-gop

I mean, we’ll find out soon enough if all that confidence was warranted or not. I still don’t buy that Heitkamp is DOA, but I’m moving this from Lean D to Tossup since Cramer and ND/national Republicans have actually done a surprisingly good job in this race so far (*cough* MT *cough* WV *cough*). Some of the ads attacking Heitkamp's voting record and support for Hillary Clinton must have been pretty devastating, and Cramer being a popular statewide officeholder who comes across as authentic and is pretty good at retail politics doesn’t hurt.

http://www.grandforksherald.com/news/government-and-politics/4488280-cramer-goes-door-door-grand-forks