2013 Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

Where are Freie Wahler on the left-right spectrum?

Basically center-rights that don't like the CSU. They've declared their support for a SPD-Green-FW coalition.

[Franknburger]

It's really time for the CSU to experience the opposition bench.

Won't happen, but Ude would be a good Ministerpräsident.

CSU has not won yet. Comparing the current Bavaria poll with previous ones, it seems that the anti-CSU block remains stable, i.e. disappointed SPD voters defect to the Greens or the FW, but not to the CSU.

Now, let's assume that until the election in Autumn 2013

(i) Unemployment in Bavaria will continue to rise (decreasing car exports),
(ii) Discontent about the increase of the renewable energy levy will grow (it will take some time until people really feel it in their pocket), and the increase is blamed on black-yellow,
(iii) Ramsauer's performance as Federal Ministter of Transport gets publicly questioned (Berlin-Brandenburg Airport, major cost increases for Stuttgart 21 and for the Fehmarnbelt Connection), and he does not stop to call for the introduction of motorway tolls for passenger cars;

this might peel another 3-4% from the CSU's current standing.

Assuming further that

(iv) Ude manages to detach himself from Steinbrück (and some other SPD highlights - Andrea Nahles comes to mind ..), and
(v) the opposition parties are able to convince voters that a change in power is achievable,

some FDP-leaners (who were never the CSU's best friends) and Pirate-leaners might decide that kicking the CSU out will be more fun than making a fundamental, but ultimately ineffective political statement - and suddenly the CSU majority is gone.

Yes, I know, it's a number of "if"s ..

[Franknburger]

Where are Freie Wahler on the left-right spectrum?

Basically center-rights that don't like the CSU. They've declared their support for a SPD-Green-FW coalition.

Freie Wähler are a bit like the over-40 variant of the Pirates. Their common agenda is increasing local-level autonomy, better funding of communities, and strengthening direct democracy. Beyond that, it gets pretty diffuse. On the local level, they often form in opposition to specific infrastructure or investment projects, typically driven by a mix of environmental and financial / economical concerns (e.g. environmentalists and inner-city retailers uniting against a planned greenfield shopping mall).

The Bavarian state level Freie Wähler owed their 2009 success to a good extent to CSU party-rebel Gabriele Pauli, who had criticised CSU party establishment and politics from a (moderate) feminist perspective.

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabriele_Pauli

The Freie Wähler party leader has frequently come out as strong euro-sceptic, while the Bavarian secretary general is a political scientist with research focus on European integration. One of the most prominent supporters outside Bavaria is Hans-Olaf Henkel, former CEO of IBM Europe and ex-President of BDI (German Association of Manufacturing Industries).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Where are Freie Wahler on the left-right spectrum?

Rightish. Basically the party for former CSU voters who have become disgruntled with the CSU... which is for all intents and purposes also their main political and election strategy.

At the same time, they also like to emphasize their independence within the party system, especially in regards to CDU/CSU and FDP. Back in 2010 they supported SPD/Green candidate Joachim Gauck for president and not CDU candidate Christian Wulff. Which wasn't that surprising, considering that Gauck is just their kind of "independent conservative". So they're also a bit of a anti-mainstream protest party.

[Vosem]

FORSA, 09.01.2013, Federal Elections:

CDU/CSU: 42% (+1)
SPD: 25% (-2)
Grüne: 15% (+2)
Linke: 9% (+1)

FDP: 2% (-2)
Piraten: 3% (0)
Sonstige: 4% (0)

FDP down to only 2%

to the FDP numbers, but I just want to point out that using Franzl notation, this poll is a 42-49 Black with no majority.

[Franzl]

FORSA, 09.01.2013, Federal Elections:

CDU/CSU: 42% (+1)
SPD: 25% (-2)
Grüne: 15% (+2)
Linke: 9% (+1)

FDP: 2% (-2)
Piraten: 3% (0)
Sonstige: 4% (0)

FDP down to only 2%

to the FDP numbers, but I just want to point out that using Franzl notation, this poll is a 42-39 absolute Black majority.

How do you figure? CDU is down 42-49.

[Vosem]

FORSA, 09.01.2013, Federal Elections:

CDU/CSU: 42% (+1)
SPD: 25% (-2)
Grüne: 15% (+2)
Linke: 9% (+1)

FDP: 2% (-2)
Piraten: 3% (0)
Sonstige: 4% (0)

FDP down to only 2%

to the FDP numbers, but I just want to point out that using Franzl notation, this poll is a 42-39 absolute Black majority.

How do you figure? CDU is down 42-49.

I'm really doing poorly today...somehow I thought Grüne were at 5 instead of 15...

[Franknburger]

Where are Freie Wahler on the left-right spectrum?

Rightish. Basically the party for former CSU voters who have become disgruntled with the CSU... which is for all intents and purposes also their main political and election strategy.

At the same time, they also like to emphasize their independence within the party system, especially in regards to CDU/CSU and FDP. Back in 2010 they supported SPD/Green candidate Joachim Gauck for president and not CDU candidate Christian Wulff. Which wasn't that surprising, considering that Gauck is just their kind of "independent conservative". So they're also a bit of a anti-mainstream protest party.

Checked a bit on the demographic profile of Freie Wähler voters in Bavaria in 2009 (infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen exit polls):

• less educated (university graduates underrepresented)
• middle-aged men (35-60 years)
• young to middle-aged women (18-24 years old women overrepresented!)
• no overall gender gap
• predominantly rural
• slightly stronger among catholics than among protestants (possibly due to rural focus)
• around 50% of votes gained against 2003 came from CSU

[RogueBeaver]

Thanks for the states' guides: finding them very interesting.

[ERvND]

Now, let's assume that until the election in Autumn 2013 [...]

Won't happen. Here is why: German voters see the effects of the economic crisis in other European states (60% youth unemployment etc.) and are thankful that Merkel, CDU and CSU "saved" them from such misery. This notion is, of course, not true: The black-yellow coalition has done exactly zilch to this effect. If anything, the former red-green coalition's social and economic reforms are responsible for Germany's relative economic stability. The voters' perception, however, is different.

As long as this doesn't change - i.e, as long as the crisis in Europe persists, which will be for a very long time - the Conservative reign over Germany will continue. That's even more true for Bavaria, traditionally more conservative than Germany in general.

[Franknburger]

Now, let's assume that until the election in Autumn 2013 [...]

Won't happen. Here is why: German voters see the effects of the economic crisis in other European states (60% youth unemployment etc.) and are thankful that Merkel, CDU and CSU "saved" them from such misery. This notion is, of course, not true: The black-yellow coalition has done exactly zilch to this effect. If anything, the former red-green coalition's social and economic reforms are responsible for Germany's relative economic stability. The voters' perception, however, is different.

As long as this doesn't change - i.e, as long as the crisis in Europe persists, which will be for a very long time - the Conservative reign over Germany will continue. That's even more true for Bavaria, traditionally more conservative than Germany in general.

Yes and no ..

Clearly, German voters are no friends to 'chasing away the captain when the ship is in heavy sea' - hence the high job approval for Merkel.  I therefore also have no doubt that she will remain Chancellor after the 2013 federal election, but she will have to rule with another partner (SPD or Greens), that will shift government policies further to the left. And, in fact, the current government has already been much more centrist than I had expected. If anybody had told me three years ago that a black-yellow government would abolish the army draft, speed-up the closing-down of nuclear plants, maintain and slightly expand minimum wages, and maybe even (that's my bet for their final 'June surprise') introduce some kind of women quota for management positions, I would have called her/him a phantast.

But Bavaria is a completely different story. The state government is not a relevant actor on the European stage (instead, it is rather a constant source of disturbing background noise). And, the CSU has been in power for so long that even traditionally conservative voters feel that a change could be healthy. Not saying that the change will happen, but it might ..

B.t.w.: Germany's current economic strength is of course to some extent attributable to the innovation pull, and the reduction of labour costs that were triggered by the red-green ecological tax reform. Mostly, however, Germany is now receiving the benefits of its geographic proximity to Central and Eastern Europe (and Scandinavia), while Southern Europe, on top of home-made problems, has to cope with the post-Arab spring economic crisis on the other side of the Mediterranean Sea. 

[Tender Branson]

New Infratest dimap federal poll shows the CDU/CSU-SPD gap widening:

41% CDU/CSU
28% SPD
14% Greens
  6% Left
  4% FDP
  3% Pirates
  4% Others

CDU/CSU has no majority (41-48).

New Bavaria federal election poll by Forsa:

49% CSU
19% SPD
14% Greens
  5% Left
  3% FDP
  3% Pirates
  7% Others

...

3 new state election polls:

Lower Saxony - Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF

39% CDU
33% SPD
13% Greens
  5% FDP
  3% Left
  3% Pirates
  4% Others

SPD-Greens has a slim 46-44 majority over CDU-FDP.

Lower Saxony - GMS for the state-CDU

41% CDU
33% SPD
13% Greens
  5% FDP
  3% Left
  3% Pirates
  2% Others

46-46 tie between CDU-FDP and SPD-Greens.

Bavaria - Forsa

46% CSU
18% SPD
13% Greens
  9% Freie Wähler
  4% Left
  3% FDP
  2% Pirates
  5% Others

CSU has a 46-40 absolute majority.

[Tender Branson]

Prediction:

SPD-Greens is losing it in Lower Saxony.

...

PS: Strangely strong showing by the Left in Bavaria @ 4% in the Forsa poll.

But they already got 4.4% in the 2008 state election, so maybe they could pull off something similar. Or the poll is just bad. Probably the latter.

[Tender Branson]

What are the chances that the McAllister-CDU wins close to 45% on election day and the FDP about 5% ?

[Franzl]

What are the chances that the McAllister-CDU wins close to 45% on election day and the FDP about 5% ?

Maybe not quite 45, but he's popular enough something like that might happen.

[Tender Branson]

What are the chances that the McAllister-CDU wins close to 45% on election day and the FDP about 5% ?

Maybe not quite 45, but he's popular enough something like that might happen.

Just noticed that the TV debate between McAllister and the SPD-guy will start in 15 minutes.

Here is the live-stream:

http://www.ndr.de/fernsehen/livestream217.html

[Franknburger]

3 new state election polls:

Lower Saxony - Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF

39% CDU
33% SPD
13% Greens
  5% FDP
  3% Left
  3% Pirates
  4% Others

SPD-Greens has a slim 46-44 majority over CDU-FDP.

Note that the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen figures are not a poll, but a projection.  As such, they are also including longer-term partisan trends and voters' tactical considerations. Unfortunately, neither the underlying actual polling data nor the detailed mechanism to convert this data into a projection are being published.

Further details from the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll:

• 50% of CDU leaners think that CDU voters should help the FDP to pass the 5% threshold
• 42% of respondents are yet unsure for whom to vote, or whether to vote at all. (Again, no further breakdown between 'undecided' and 'not sure whether I will vote" has been published.)
• Coalition preferences (% "would like", i.e. multiple answers possible): CDU/SPD 47, SPD/Green 47, CDU/FDP 30, CDU/Green 26

My guesses:

• Actual FDP support is considerably lower than 5%, probably not more than some 2%. The projection, however, assumes that enough CDU leaners will 'lend' their vote to the FDP to pull them above 5%. This also implies that current CDU support might rather be around 42% (i.e. where the GMS poll puts it), but has been reduced by some 3% to account for FDP 'vote lending'.
• Roughly half of the 42% 'undecided' are only unsure whether to vote CDU or FDP.  To which extent the remaining 21% 'undecided' are still up for grabs by the CDU, or only swinging between SPD/Greens/Linke/Pirates, is left for anyone to guess.

In any case, this will become a nail-biter.

[Famous Mortimer]

Two questions/musings:

Chances that the Greens come out ahead of the SPD in Bavaria?

Chances that the Greens come out ahead of the SPD in the Federal election?

Bonus question musing:

Chances that the CDU/CSU wins in the high 40s in the Federal election and wins an outright majority of seats?

[Franzl]

10%
1%
3-5%

[Tender Branson]

Two questions/musings:

Chances that the Greens come out ahead of the SPD in Bavaria?

Chances that the Greens come out ahead of the SPD in the Federal election?

Bonus question musing:

Chances that the CDU/CSU wins in the high 40s in the Federal election and wins an outright majority of seats?

Question 1: Only if the CSU backs a plan to create an additional 2 or 3 starting lanes at the Munich Airport and the SPD back their plans ...

Question 2: Only if a Nuclear Power Plant blows up somewhere in Germany.

Question 3: Only if Merkel does something "really cool" in the next months and the economy recovers.

[Franzl]

Nothing Merkel or the CDU do will really have an influence on number 3. The economy is already doing reasonably well.

It'd just be the result of a fluke if FDP, Piraten and Linke all managed to go slightly under 5%.

[Franknburger]

As addendum to my last post, in illustration on the difference between Forschungsgruppe Wahlen projections and polls, a comparison of their December 2012 Federal results (outdated, January figures should come in tomorrow):

CDU: Poll 44, Projection 40
SPD: Poll 34, Projection 30
Greens: Poll 13, Projection 13
FDP: Poll 2, Projection 4
Linke: Poll 5, Projection 7
Pirates: Poll 1, Projection 3
Others: Poll n/a, Projection 3

In other words: In their projection, they typically shift 2% from CDU to FDP, 2% from CDU to others (makes sense, NPD etc. which may not be stated in polls), 2% from SPD to Linke, and 2% from SPD to Pirates / others.

[Franknburger]

PS: Strangely strong showing by the Left in Bavaria @ 4% in the Forsa poll.

But they already got 4.4% in the 2008 state election, so maybe they could pull off something similar. Or the poll is just bad. Probably the latter.

For the 2009 Federal election, FORSA was by far the most accurate pollster. They were the only pollster which saw the rise of the Pirates coming, did not - like everybody else - overestimate CDU performance, and were one of the two (emnid being the other) that had the Left correctly at 12%.
On the other hand, their Bavaria poll has been in the field for an extremely long time (since Dec 17), so the findings may be partly outdated. That should, however, first of all put their SPD result in question.

[Tender Branson]

Steinbrück is crashing in the latest ARD poll:











Job approval ratings:

[Franknburger]

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 11.01.2013, Federal Elections

Raw poll data [projection in brackets]

CDU:        49 (+5)     [42 (+2)]
SPD:        27 (-7)      [28 (-2)]
Greens:    13 (-)        [13 (-)]
Linke:       4 (-1)     [  6 (-1)]

FDP:         2 (-)        [ 4 (-)]
Piraten:     2 (+1)      [ 3 (-)]
Others       n/a          [  4 (+1)]

Preferred chancellor: Merkel 65%, Steinbrück 25% [SPD leaners: 27% Merkel, 62% Steinbrück, Grüne leaners: 43% Merkel, 47% Steinbrück]

Politician scores: Gains for Merkel, Schäuble, Seehofer, Trittin; losses for Steinbrück, Gabriel, Westerwelle, Rösler

Chart slideshow with further questions:
http://wahltool.zdf.de/Politbarometer/mediathekflash.shtml?2013_01_11
[long-term trendlines can be accessed via the menu on the right-hand side]