German Elections & Politics

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I get that the Stadtstaaten are a bit financially unstable, and the Saar and NRW are postindustrial, but what's up with Schleswig-Holstein?

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Germans don't go for joke parties...ever.

False, the FDP is polling above the threshold.

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The only people I think that really want a black-green coalition are Cem Özdemir and Katrin Göring-Eckardt (who are desperate for some amount of power) and Merkel herself, who probably enjoys the idea of steamrolling yet another junior partner into submission.

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the FDP aren't going to be tricked into taking the effectively useless position of Foreign Office this time (I assume Ozdemir will get it): they'll probably try and grab a position like Finance (kicking Schauble aside) so they won't be cucked on their tax plans like last time ("tax cuts for everybody _{if you own a hotel}"). Maybe they'll try and get Health as well, and maybe try their luck on something to do with Asylum (you can certainly bet the Greens won't be allowed near asylum). The Greens, I presume, will go laser focused on environmental causes - the coal phase out, the diesel and petrol ban, the protection of renewable subsidies, maybe some agricultural stuff if the CDU allows it.

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Germans should really lower their electoral threshold. As I understand it, the main reason it's at 5 percent was to try and stop the far right entering parliament; a motivation that has been rendered irrelevant by events. Now due to the proliferation of smallish parties who could potentially fall out of legislatures (especially at a state level) you're going to see more and more wasted votes (And it's not like this would just help the left: it would prevent FDP from suffering the oblivion it did when it was allied with Merkel, and it would allow AfD to last any teething problems)

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Coalition Building Fun:

- Serious feuds over climate change. The Greens are playing hardball on this issue (obviously - if they don't they would look pretty stupid) and want a quick shut-down of lignite plants and a transition to a 100% renewable grid by 2030. FDP stress they support the emissions targets (that Germany is hopelessly off course on, having spent the past couple years sitting on their arse:


 while being smug at countries actually making an effort) but as long as they are "competitive" (i.e. unenforced). CDU's lead negotiater Armin Laschet is NRW Premier, which has loads of lignite mines, and very little wish to close them down. (The SPD are probably grateful that they won't have to play the Thatcher role)

- apparently weed will be legalised, as a little freebie for the Greens and more 420 inclined FDP people

- the CDU has sulkily accepted they won't get control of the Finance Ministry, and to prove they aren't sore losers, apparently tried to strip as much powers from the ministry as possible by moving all European related issues to the Economy Ministry. Finance will probably go to FDP, although Greens are making a feint for it.

- economically, the parties have decided to push for "full employment", but there are major bust-ups about the future of retirement. Jens Spahn, David's dreamlad, wants to raise it from 63, the FDP want to abolish the concept of a fixed retirement age entirely and the Greens want some kind of leftist reform they probably won't get. They also want a wealth tax, which they certainly won't get.

- migrants are obviously going to be the big sticking point, but I honestly think Greens will back down if the Merk demands it. Everyone is also politely ignoring the Europe issue so far as well, but the Greens are in favour of Macron's reforms, the FDP and CSU are against and the CDU, as always, will stick a finger up in the air.

- Merkel's strategy through this term is looking pretty obvious - play the juniors against each on all sorts of issues, chuckle wisely and say they're adorable and then just plod along regardless.

- good news for negotiators though: there is a higher than expected surplus, so more cash can be dolloped around to pay for various freebies and tax cuts to sweeten the coalition deals. (to fund all the tax cuts and extra spending promised by all four parties would cost 100 billion euros over the next four years)

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Oh sorry David - in retrospect that makes a lot more sense . I promise I'm not a racist who thinks all blue Dutchmen look the same!

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Greens have conceded they won't get explicit target dates to phase out coal or combustion engines.

FDP have conceded they won't get all their tax cuts.

CSU Youth Wing (lol) want to oust Seehofer

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Looks like the SPD will demand single payer healthcare (among other things) if they enter another grand coalition.

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  Are there elements in the CSU that would support a Bavaria level coalition between it and the AFD? Maybe especially if the OVP FPO coalition in Austria is working out ok without the sky falling?

the CSU is far too green to be ushered in at the moment; and it would cause chaos in both the CSU and AfD. There simply is no need.

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Governments aside, which nations have majorities of people who would even want a United States of Europe at this point? This seems like something everyone wants as a long term goal but would never go for in the medium term.

Luxembourg lol

Maybe some clusters of countries like Malta and Belgium as well (in the good ole, "they can't screw things up as badly as our own politicians" tradition)

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I'm almost a million percent sure Kurz will never be the "leading figure in the EU".

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What would be the CSU's first choice for coalition partner? Free voters? FDP?

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A rejection of the GroKo would kill the careers of both Schulz and Merkel right?

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If the GroKo fails, does this mean another election in 2018?

I think a minority government would be more likely, especially as polls haven't hugely changed since last time around.

There would be an immediate leadership challenge in the SPD though, and possibly Merkel herself will be turfed.

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If the GroKo fails, does this mean another election in 2018?

I think a minority government would be more likely, especially as polls haven't hugely changed since last time around.

There would be an immediate leadership challenge in the SPD though, and possibly Merkel herself will be turfed.

Haha no. Germany does not do minority governments. Merkel has two choices. She either A -  returns to Jamaica now effectively saying "you are our last hope." Of B - we get another election that at least right now, probably will return similar totals to the bundestag and begins Jamaica negotiations from the beginning. 

Germany historically doesn't do minorities by convention, but conventions can change out of necessity. There's been a lot more talk of minority governments from the ptb than is the norm.

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anything interesting about environment/energy in the agreement?

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in all fairness, they'd de facto given up that target for a while

what about the coal transition? They going to continue sticking their head in the sand rather than prepare a soft landing for workers?

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Who would the CSU take as a junior partner? The FDP?

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If Wagenknecht were to leave would she try and start her own party?

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If Wagenknecht were to leave would she try and start her own party?

Frauke Petry founded her own party: Die Blauen, which might enter the Saxon parliament next fall.
I suggest if Wagenknecht creates a new one, too, she call it "Die Roten" - and she would be likely to to fill a niche in the market; we don't have a Democratic party that is both socialist and pro-German.

Ignoring its subsequent collapse, the success of Pilz List suggests that there is a market for such a party.

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This is what happens when atlas nerds get too much power.

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The CSU can't really jump in bed with the Greens after traipsing so far to the right; it would be economic suicide for them surely?

I wonder if the Left will get in?

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So in about a month's time the AfD should be represented in all 16 state parliaments. Have any of the other smaller parties ever achieved that? I assume the FDP simultaneously held seats in the 11 state parliaments of the old federal republic, but I doubt anyone's been able to achieve this feat since 1990.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sitzverteilung_in_den_deutschen_Landesparlamenten

The Greens were represented in all states from 2011 (with their Fukushima bump) till 2016, when they fell from the  Mecklenburg Vorpommern legislature.

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Furthermore, the SPD treacherously betrayed the blue-collar workers with the Blair-like "reforms".

Small defense of Blair (!) - he never did anything as blatantly economically right-wing Agenda 2010 (although he tried).