Romney to announce running mate on Saturday @9am ET in Norfolk, VA

[Mr. Morden]

Can anyone put up the full article? Thx.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/18/us/politics/romney-vice-presidential-search-began-months-ago.html?gwh=E93A55FCE987AD87C3257E64BB5BF0D8&pagewanted=all

Paywalls are irritating, but don't ask people here to violate copyright, OK?

In any case, there are a million ways to get around the NYT paywall.  Just reset NYT cookies:

http://www.labnol.org/internet/nyt-paywall/18992/

Or even just use a different browser, and you'll get past their 20 articles a month limit.

[Mr. Morden]

About the vetting of Rubio:

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/article1240770.ece

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

News of Biden's Secret Service protection was leaked 3 days out- I just checked Google News.

Link?  IIRC, it leaked out on Friday night, and the networks definitively broke the news that it was Biden late Friday night / early Saturday morning.

But news of the specific time and place that the announcement would be made was leaked out 3 days in advance for both Biden and Palin.

[Mr. Morden]

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2008/08/us-secret-servi/

That wasn't three days out.  That was just a few hours out.  Time stamp on the article is August 22 at 10:50pm, which was just like an hour before all the networks confirmed that was Biden.  Obama's campaign then officially confirmed it in the early morning hours, before Biden made his joint appearance w/ Obama on Saturday morning.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney leaves for the UK on Wednesday:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/21/12875776-risk-and-reward-await-romney-on-foreign-trip?lite

and will be visiting the UK, Israel, and Poland over the subsequent six days, after which he returns to the USA.  I think it goes without saying that we've now run out of time for a veep announcement before this trip.  The earliest it's going to happen is immediately after the Olympics.

[Mr. Morden]

We have some really important veepstakes news today: Kelly Ayotte was included in The Hill's "50 most beautiful people" list:

http://thehill.com/capital-living/cover-stories/239791-the-hills-50-most-beautiful-people-2012?start=11

That is, 50 most beautiful people on Capital Hill, not 50 most beautiful people in the world.  But note:

"Ayotte declined to participate in an interview for this feature."

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

[Mr. Morden]

Did a 'Follow Friday' list reveal the name of Mitt Romney's VP choice?

http://www.tecca.com/news/2012/07/27/mitt-romney-running-mate-leak-twitter/

I'm personally hoping it's Condoleezza Rice. Mitt needs to prove he won't make the same mistakes as McCain and pick someone capable of serving as president from day one.

She tweets out 13 different names, and I don't think anyone is seriously thinking it'll be someone not on that list.  But the list is surely longer than the current short list.  I mean, Newt Gingrich as Romney's running mate?  I can't believe that that was ever considered.

[Mr. Morden]

Not so sure romney will pick a washington insider. Rubio is part of washington he's a senator and Portman is part of washington he's also a senator. Romney spent the entirety of his presidential primary campaign casting himself — smartly — as an outsider to Washington and its ways.

Every governor who runs for president runs as an outsider to Washington and its ways, yet they all pick running mates with Washington experience.  When was the last time we had a major party ticket with two current or former governors?  Hasn't happened for at least several decades.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney will announce his choice via a smartphone app, which you can download here:

http://www.mittromney.com/app/vp

Of course, in 2008, Obama was supposedly going to announce his choice via text message, but it didn't happen until about 5 hours after it was already reported by all the cable news networks.

[Mr. Morden]

Jon Karl: Shortlist down to Pawlenty/Portman/Ryan.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/jonathan-karls-list-vp-field-august-portman-pawlenty-ryan/story?id=16354225#.UBk1-mFfFQJ

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/mitt-romney-set-pick-vice-president-2012-election-16902991

He says "I believe the short list comes down to three names: Rob Portman, Tim Pawlenty and Paul Ryan", but it doesn't sound like he's really getting that from a primary source (the Romney campaign telling him).  Rather, it sounds like he's reading the tea leaves.  The more interesting thing here is this bit:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Any day now?  Romney isn't actually going to announce before the end of the Olympics, is he?

[Mr. Morden]

Beth Myers (head of the VP vetting team) is in Basalt, Colorado with Romney today, as he meets with some GOP governors who're there for the RGA meeting.  Romney will appear at a rally with Christie, McDonnell, Jindal, and Martinez:

http://thehill.com/blogs/twitter-room/other-news/241837-head-of-romney-vp-search-on-hand-for-rally-with-jindal-mcdonnell

ABC says that this is Jindal's first public appearance with Romney aside from fundraisers:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/veep-beat-romney-campaign-bulking-up-vp-team/

Is that true?  I could have sworn they'd done an appearance together at some point in the past.

Also, the campaign is adding more staff-in-waiting for Romney's soon-to-be running mate:

link

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney campaigned in Colorado today, and will campaign in Nevada on Friday.  Does he have any other events between this weekend and Friday, Aug. 10th, when he starts his bus tour?  If he has a big gap in his schedule this coming week, that might be when he huddles with his top aides to make a final veep decision.  There might also be face-to-face interviews with the top two or three or four short listers.  That's frequently happened in recent election cycles.

[Mr. Morden]

The bus tour will be August 10-13.  As far as I can tell, it's been reported that the bus tour will hit these states on these days:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/31/romney-preps-swing-state-blitz-stirring-v-p-speculation/

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_politics/2012/07/romney-planning-pre-convention-bus-tour-to-hit-orlando-speculation-vp-pick-could-be-on-board-too.html

August 11: Virginia
August 12: North Carolina
August 13: Florida

AFAIK, it hasn't been confirmed where the tour will begin on August 10, however this article says:

http://www.newsandsentinel.com/page/content.detail/id/563701/Obama--Romney-come-to-Ohio--but-not-locally.html?nav=5061

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I would assume that Ohio would then be August 10, since it's the only day left.

Romney is also scheduled to do a fundraiser in Charlotte on August 15:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/08/03/3426713/romney-will-visit-charlotte-on.html

Pawlenty is doing an event in New Hampshire on August 11, the second day of the bus tour:

http://www.nhgop.org/events/detail/4891

though that's presumably something he could easily cancel or reschedule for veep-related reasons.  I don't know about the other likely short-listers.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney is doing a fundraiser in Indiana on Saturday:

http://www.courierpress.com/news/2012/aug/02/no-headline---romneyevent/

Still no word on his schedule between Sunday and Thursday.

A Boehner spokesman has joined the staff of the soon-to-be Romney running mate:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/242079-boehner-spokesman-moves-to-romney-camps-vp-staff

Portman doesn't have Romney's VP app:

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/02/portman-no-room-for-that-app/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

NBC has the schedule.

http://video.msnbc.msn.com/nbc-news/48489083

OK, they say nothing about Romney's whereabouts between Sunday and Wednesday.  They do have him listed as going to two fundraisers in New York on Thursday.  From searching The Google, I found this tweet:

http://en.twitter.com/shushwalshe/status/225208725969965056

suggesting that these are breakfast and lunch fundraisers, freeing Romney to spend the rest of the day preparing for his four day bus tour.

I still think an announcement during the Olympics is kind of unlikely.  So I'd lean more towards it taking place *after* the bus tour.  But if it does happen during the Olympics, then I'd guess that it'll happen either on the morning of Friday Aug. 10, or possibly even the evening of Thursday Aug. 9.  And I'd predict that it'll happen in Michigan, Romney's original home state.

We know that the bus tour hits Virginia on Aug. 11, and we know that it'll also hit Ohio (probably before Virginia).  Why not have it start in Michigan, where Romney grew up, and have it make its way to Florida, where the RNC will be held?  I mean, if he's going to announce his running mate at this time, then what's the alternative?  Announce it in Ohio, home state of Portman, one of the shortlisters?  Only makes sense if you're picking Portman.  And even if you are picking Portman, why spoil the surprise by revealing that you're going to make the announcement in his home state?  Michigan seems like it makes the most sense.

In fact, even if the announcement isn't for another two or three weeks, I'll predict that it'll be made in Michigan.

[Mr. Morden]

Pawlenty's made the top 2 last time, presumably McCain's team knew about that. Though given how laughably incompetent they were in "vetting" Palin maybe not. Pawlenty is the least wealthy of this trio. Portman #1, Ryan #2.

McCain never seriously looked at him at all in the final round. He was simply used as a decoy and wasn't even told he was a decoy.

Source?

My recollection is that the reporting had McCain polling his senior aides to see who they thought would be the best pick politically, and Pawlenty had the most support in McCain's inner circle, but McCain overruled them to go with Palin.

[Mr. Morden]

On the veep announcement timing, another option besides the one I floated earlier would be to hold it right at the very end of the bus tour, but tease the announcement during the bus tour to get people to pay attention.

Say Romney spends the coming week mulling his VP options, discussing it with his aides and possibly even talking to the short-listers themselves, with an eye towards having a decision by the end of the week.  But when Friday rolls around and the bus tour is launched in, say, either Michigan or Ohio, Romney kicks off the tour by saying that he's going to announce his choice of running mate on Monday  night, when the bus tour concludes.  The campaign will simultaneously leak the short list to the media, and Romney have the media scrutinizing his speeches throughout the rest of the bus tour for clues about who he's going to pick.  It'll be a ploy to get people to pay more attention to him on the bus tour.

Then on Monday, Aug. 13, one day after the end of the Olympics, by which time Ann Romney will be back from London, Romney concludes his bus tour in RNC host city Tampa by announcing his running mate.  The campaign then tries to use the announcement to dominate the media's attention for the subsequent two weeks, leading up to the convention.

[Mr. Morden]

We know that the bus tour hits Virginia on Aug. 11, and we know that it'll also hit Ohio (probably before Virginia).  Why not have it start in Michigan, where Romney grew up, and have it make its way to Florida, where the RNC will be held?  I mean, if he's going to announce his running mate at this time, then what's the alternative?  Announce it in Ohio, home state of Portman, one of the shortlisters?  Only makes sense if you're picking Portman.  And even if you are picking Portman, why spoil the surprise by revealing that you're going to make the announcement in his home state?  Michigan seems like it makes the most sense.

In fact, even if the announcement isn't for another two or three weeks, I'll predict that it'll be made in Michigan.

Why Michigan?  Even if the state were to become a possible Romney pickup, he'd be well past 270 from other states by then.  If he's going to make the bus trip a day longer, Iowa and/or Wisconsin are far better States to prepend than Michigan.

Because it's Romney's home state (at least, where he grew up), and a quasi-swing state, and it borders on ultimate swing state Ohio.  In recent cycles, candidates have typically either announced their running mate choice in their own home state or in a swing state.  Romney will try to claim Michigan as his home state, and announce his pick there, but not spend too much time there, then a few hours later he and his running mate roll into Ohio and spend the day campaigning there.

I'll stick with that until knocked down by hard news on this: Romney either announces his pick in Michigan (just before the bus tour, or else later in the month), or he announces it in Tampa at the end of the bus tour.

[Mr. Morden]

Both Portman's and Ryan's home states are swing states, so if it either of them is the choice then an announcement that isn't made at the end of the bus trip is likely to be in their home state, not one of Romney's.  Maybe if Pawlenty is the choice it'll be announced in Michigan, but there are plenty of other logical choices.

In recent election cycles, presidential nominees have avoided making their announcement in the VP pick's home state to avoid tipping off the press in advance as to who it'll be.  They either announce it in their own home state or a swing state.

Kerry actually went farther than that, and didn't even have Edwards with him when he made his announcement, to help stop the news from leaking.  I believe he announced it in Pennsylvania near his wife's home, while Edwards was in North Carolina.  Then later in the day, Edwards flew out to make a joint appearance with him.

[Mr. Morden]

Both Portman's and Ryan's home states are swing states, so if it either of them is the choice then an announcement that isn't made at the end of the bus trip is likely to be in their home state, not one of Romney's.  Maybe if Pawlenty is the choice it'll be announced in Michigan, but there are plenty of other logical choices.

In recent election cycles, presidential nominees have avoided making their announcement in the VP pick's home state to avoid tipping off the press in advance as to who it'll be.  They either announce it in their own home state or a swing state.

Kerry actually went farther than that, and didn't even have Edwards with him when he made his announcement, to help stop the news from leaking.  I believe he announced it in Pennsylvania near his wife's home, while Edwards was in North Carolina.  Then later in the day, Edwards flew out to make a joint appearance with him.

Most recent running mate picks have not been from close election swing states.  Gore in 1992 was the last and was announced from Arkansas, but Clinton was a sitting governor at the time.  Romney is free to make his announcement from anywhere he chooses.

Yes, but as I said, if you announce the pick in the running mate's home state, then you're tipping people off about who you're picking and it kills the surprise.

Maybe Romney won't care about the surprise.  Maybe he'll be happy for people to know who he's going to pick a day or more before he announces it.  But if he does care, then it seems like a bad idea.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm still unclear on where Romney is today, and where he's supposed to be on Monday through Wednesday of this week.  Is he huddled with his advisors doing veep deciding?

[Mr. Morden]

Bus tour officially announced. VA (11), NC (12), FL (13), OH (14).

Yeah, that's a change from the initial schedule.  It was originally August 10-13, now it's 11-14.  So it doesn't start until Saturday.  Will Ann be back from London by Saturday?    Also, if my Michigan announcement idea pans out, maybe Romney hops accross the OH/MI stateline either late on the 14th or on the morning of the 15th and announces his pick.

Finally, The Twitter tells me Romney will campaign with McDonnell in VA and with Portman in OH.

[Mr. Morden]

Yes, she'll be on the bus tour. I still don't get MI because while it is his original home state 'tis also firmly in the Donk column.

Obama announced his choice in Illinois, which was far less competitive.

[Mr. Morden]

Maybe the bus tour is for the purpose of telling some of the VP prospects in their home states that they're off the short list.  For example, when Romney is at a campaign stop in Virginia, he says:

"Bob McDonnell....Is Governor McDonnell here?  There you are Governor, please come up to the podium with me.  Isn't he a fantastic governor, Virginia?"  [cheers erupt from the crowd]

"Now Governor, I just wanted to tell you in front of all of these constituents of yours, and all of these news cameras, that you are........NOT going to be my running mate."  [The smile on McDonnell's face slowly fades, and his eyes well up with tears.]

Then he does the same in Florida with Rubio and in Ohio with Portman.  

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/romneys-vp-list-seems-to-get-shorter-as-gop-convention-speakers-are-announced/2012/08/06/60e6b698-dff6-11e1-8fc5-a7dcf1fc161d_story.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Here's what I've been able to piece together about Romney's whereabouts for the coming week and a half:

Monday: With senior aides at his NH home (probably talking about veepstakes)
Tuesday: Elk Grove Village, IL
Wednesday: Des Moines, IA
Thursday: breakfast and lunchtime fundraisers in NYC area
Friday: (Ann flies back from London)
Saturday: bus tour begins in Virginia
Sunday: bus tour in North Carolina
Monday: bus tour in Florida
Tuesday: bus tour ends in Ohio
Wednesday and beyond: