What now for Dean?

[Gustaf]

If Kerry moves ahead in polls, but Dean rebounds and manages to squeak it out, or if Dean for some reason picks up in polls and wins clearly in NH, he's still in it. If he loses it's over, and in only wins barely it will most likely be over after Feb 3rd.

[Gustaf]

It's possibly too early to tell, but let's face it, five days ago anything other than a Dean victory in IA would have been a massive shock. So what happened? Has the bubble burst? And how will Dean's recent kamikaze oratory (let's face it, you can't really call that a speech) affect his chances in NH?

Perhaps Dean will recover, perhaps he won't. Either way, these primaries are set to be a lot closer, and ultimately more exciting, than many would have thought.

New Hampshire voters are very educated. They all know about his verbal cliff dive (even if the only coverage was on the news-- which it's not, but instead a pop culture moment worthy of inclusion on a show on VH1). Dean will get about 20% of the vote. Anyone else who gets higher than that will beat him. So, he could be in second or third or whatever depending on how many are over 20% and by how much.

Kerry and Edwards will surge. The last poll, taken before the Iowa results came, showed Kerry in second place with 20%, Dean at 28%.

[Gustaf]

It will be hard for Dean to start to reshape like this. It will hurt the image of the straight-shooting rebel and make him another politician.

[Gustaf]

NEW YORK!!! NORTH DAKOTA!!! MICHIGAN!!! PENNSYLVANIA!!! OHIO!!! AND TEXAS!!! AND ARKANSAS!!! AND NORTH CAROLINA!!! THEN TAKE BACK THE WHITE HOUSE Yeeheehaaaaa!!!!

I have never before heard Lex Luthor-style crazy evil laughter in politics. This was a first for me.

I think a lot of Deaniacs are starting to realize now that they;ve been following a Golden Calf, a False Messiah; what Simon and Garfunkel might call a "neon god". It must be like awakening from a dark dream last night- a lot of people must've turned on their screeens and said "we were following that raving lunatic???"

I still haven't seen the speech!

[Gustaf]

NEW YORK!!! NORTH DAKOTA!!! MICHIGAN!!! PENNSYLVANIA!!! OHIO!!! AND TEXAS!!! AND ARKANSAS!!! AND NORTH CAROLINA!!! THEN TAKE BACK THE WHITE HOUSE Yeeheehaaaaa!!!!

I have never before heard Lex Luthor-style crazy evil laughter in politics. This was a first for me.

I think a lot of Deaniacs are starting to realize now that they;ve been following a Golden Calf, a False Messiah; what Simon and Garfunkel might call a "neon god". It must be like awakening from a dark dream last night- a lot of people must've turned on their screeens and said "we were following that raving lunatic???"

I still haven't seen the speech!

Ignore Miamiu1027. You do want to see it. It's hilarious. It's why we all love reality TV.

Oh, I do, believe me. I couldn't play it on the link you gave to me, it got something to do with a Swedish version not being able to handle English stuff, or something. *sigh* Sometimes I hate computers...

I have the seen the pics you posted, and read the script you posted, so thanks to you I do have a pretty good idea...

[Gustaf]

Hemay have been drunk, now that I think of it.

I bet he WAS drunk. I bet as soon as he looked at the final results..and saw he was in third place..he said...."oh god.....I stayed in this cold state, with nothing but corn..and shook the hands of FAT people for HOURS on end...for NOTHING!! WHY GOD?! WHY?!!!"

GLUG GLUG

A few hours later...he feels even more "liberal" thanks to the booze. And he is trying to see if he can remember all the states while he is drunk.

"Lets see, theres New Hampshire...Ohidaho...no no!! OHIO! HA HA HA...and Mexico...and I mean New Mexico...and then we gotta get the votes from the White House too!!! YEEEHA!!!"

An educated theory from DRD.

I hope by DRD you mean Demrepdan...and not Democratische Republic von Deutschland (Democratic Republic of Germany), which I don't even think exists anymore...

But yes...thank you....if you look at his body language I think you'll find my theory to be true.

It's DDR, Deutsche Demokratische Republik.

[Gustaf]

Hemay have been drunk, now that I think of it.

I bet he WAS drunk. I bet as soon as he looked at the final results..and saw he was in third place..he said...."oh god.....I stayed in this cold state, with nothing but corn..and shook the hands of FAT people for HOURS on end...for NOTHING!! WHY GOD?! WHY?!!!"

GLUG GLUG

A few hours later...he feels even more "liberal" thanks to the booze. And he is trying to see if he can remember all the states while he is drunk.

"Lets see, theres New Hampshire...Ohidaho...no no!! OHIO! HA HA HA...and Mexico...and I mean New Mexico...and then we gotta get the votes from the White House too!!! YEEEHA!!!"

An educated theory from DRD.

I hope by DRD you mean Demrepdan...and not Democratische Republic von Deutschland (Democratic Republic of Germany), which I don't even think exists anymore...

But yes...thank you....if you look at his body language I think you'll find my theory to be true.

It's DDR, Deutsche Demokratische Republik.

Oh yeah...whoops...

I guess I never really did learn anything from my four years in German class.

Ich bin sehr blöd..und das ist schade....

I've been one year to German class, it's a hilarious language, at least for a Swede!

[Gustaf]

I've been one year to German class, it's a hilarious language, at least for a Swede!

Ironically, that's what the Germans think about Swedish.

Are you German or do you have German ancestry? Your surname looks German. I didn't know that so many Germans knew Swedish...

[Gustaf]

You guessed right, both my parents are German. But I've lived in Britain for most of my life.

My grand-mother comes from Austria and Germany.

[Gustaf]

You guessed right, both my parents are German. But I've lived in Britain for most of my life.

My grand-mother comes from Austria and Germany.

Alright. Do you know which part she's from?

Not entirely sure, I will check it with my mum and come back to tomorrow. She was Jewish, so she fled Austria in 1938 when the Germans arrived. She had been picked out to be a "flower-girl" and greet Hitler and the German troops...that's when she decided to get out. I believe my great grand-father is from Kiel, he was an artist, and there is a museum with his paintings there.

[Gustaf]

I din't know you were part Jewish! You know if your maternal grandmother was Jewish, you are Jewish by Jewish and Nazi law... not American though!

I know! It's my maternal grandmother, so I could emigrate to Isael if I wanted...I like to point it out at times, b/c I think Jews are generally smart and successfull people...

[Gustaf]

wow there isnt alot of swedish jews... in that case whats your feelings on israeli ambassdor trashing that art exibit last week

I understand his feelings, but I think he overreacted, especially considering the fact that he's an ambassador and should know how to behave himself. So it made the news in the US as well, then?

[Gustaf]

wow there isnt alot of swedish jews... in that case whats your feelings on israeli ambassdor trashing that art exibit last week

There aren't that few...they are quite notable, many of them, so they still play a pretty important role in society. Like everywhere...

[Gustaf]

Here's what I think is in store for Dean next:  a comeback.

Possible, but not likely. He is going down in NH.

[Gustaf]

Here's what I think is in store for Dean next:  a comeback.

Possible, but not likely. He is going down in NH.

Your only opposed to Dean cause you support the war!!! If you think the lifes of the men and women in armed services should be put at risk for a war that is used for revenge then you are wrong!!!

But back to the issue; Dean doesn't have to win NH. He has had a fall but now he will rise again and it will be great.

The fact's are that Iowa and NH are important but Dean still has a chance.

What!? You can spell and make coherent posts! What's happened?

This is not a thread devoted to the Iraq War, if you wanna discuss that, then start a thread under general discussion board.

You're right that Dean still has a chance, but he was way ahead in New Hampshire, and when he loses there it will be a great blow to him. And I try not to let my personal opinions influence my predictions, so my prediction that Dean is going down isn't dependeing on the fact that I would never vote for him.  

[Gustaf]

What if Dean come second, but not far away from Kerry?

Then, since he was ay ahead before, he will lose more and Kerry will gain more. Kerry will add on to his momentum, and when they reach Feb 3rd, Dean will most likely slip even more.

[Gustaf]

What if Dean come second, but not far away from Kerry?

Then, since he was ay ahead before, he will lose more and Kerry will gain more. Kerry will add on to his momentum, and when they reach Feb 3rd, Dean will most likely slip even more.

Ok, but dont you think it is quite possibile that Dean can still win big on Feb 3rd. He dose have the organisation and the money. That's why bush won in 2000 he had the money to take it all the way. Right?

Yes, but Dean is falling rapidly in polls. He is 22 points behind Clark in Oklahoma now, at 4th place. A month ago he was 1st with 24%. More than half of his support has disappeared. In California he is now 5 points behind Kerry, when he was 21 points ahead of him a week ago.

[Gustaf]

What if Dean come second, but not far away from Kerry?

Then, since he was ay ahead before, he will lose more and Kerry will gain more. Kerry will add on to his momentum, and when they reach Feb 3rd, Dean will most likely slip even more.

Ok, but dont you think it is quite possibile that Dean can still win big on Feb 3rd. He dose have the organisation and the money. That's why bush won in 2000 he had the money to take it all the way. Right?

Yes, but Dean is falling rapidly in polls. He is 22 points behind Clark in Oklahoma now, at 4th place. A month ago he was 1st with 24%. More than half of his support has disappeared. In California he is now 5 points behind Kerry, when he was 21 points ahead of him a week ago.

He is no longer the front runner... that's good. Now all the other candidates wont attack him (as much). Just give Dean some time.

By the way what is the site you are getting your polls from?  

The heat will lessen some, that's right, but he WAS the front-runner, and when he can't live up to expectations it will hurt him.

Here is the site: http://www.davidwissing.com

[Gustaf]

What if Dean come second, but not far away from Kerry?

Then, since he was ay ahead before, he will lose more and Kerry will gain more. Kerry will add on to his momentum, and when they reach Feb 3rd, Dean will most likely slip even more.

Ok, but dont you think it is quite possibile that Dean can still win big on Feb 3rd. He dose have the organisation and the money. That's why bush won in 2000 he had the money to take it all the way. Right?

Yes, but Dean is falling rapidly in polls. He is 22 points behind Clark in Oklahoma now, at 4th place. A month ago he was 1st with 24%. More than half of his support has disappeared. In California he is now 5 points behind Kerry, when he was 21 points ahead of him a week ago.

He is no longer the front runner... that's good. Now all the other candidates wont attack him (as much). Just give Dean some time.

By the way what is the site you are getting your polls from?  

The heat will lessen some, that's right, but he WAS the front-runner, and when he can't live up to expectations it will hurt him.

Here is the site: http://www.davidwissing.com

Only a year ago many people would have been asking who is Howard Dean. He wouldn’t in his wildest of dreams believed he would ever be the front-runner. He has got to be front-runner and will again. Despite loosing Iowa and most-likely coming second in New Hampshire he can still make it. Kerry is not a bad guy but lets not give up on Dean. We both want change that’s why you supported the war that’s why I support Dean.  

Thanks for the web site.

You're welcome. I understand that you want Dean to win, but I don't think one gets to be front runner more than once in a race like this. He does have organization and money going for him, so he's not dead yet, but he will have a hard time.