State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

This should be everything for NH:

Candidate   Percent   Votes
Kevin Cavanaugh (Democratic)    54.6%   4,751
David Boutin (Republican)    43.9%   3,815
Jason Dubrow (Libertarian)    1.5%   129

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Florida is done:

State Senator, District 40
Republican
Compare All Counties
Compare by County
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Jose Felix Diaz   REP   7,678   
57.76%
Alex Diaz de la Portilla   REP   3,398   
25.56%
Lorenzo J. Palomares   REP   2,217   
16.68%
13,293   Total

State Senator, District 40
Democrat
Compare All Counties
Compare by County
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Ana Rivas Logan   DEM   2,941   
29.29%
Annette Taddeo   DEM   7,101   
70.71%
10,042   Total

State Representative, District 116
Republican
Compare All Counties
Compare by County
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Jose Mallea   REP   2,950   
45.18%
Daniel Anthony Perez   REP   3,579   
54.82%
6,529   Total

[mds32]

I'm feeling real confident about the New Hampshire legislature flipping next year. If you applied a 9 point swing across the board in state Senate races, you'd get about 6 seats flipping R -> D, which is 3 more than necessary for Democrats to take control. 11 point swing and you get maybe 7 or 8 seats. By no means am I suggesting you would see a uniform swing, but Republicans really only barely held their ground in the state Senate in terms of their win margins, so it's  hard to see them holding on in 2018. Ditto for the state House.

You guys should check out all the special elections at Ready2vote, there are at least 3 more special elections in New Hampshire that with these numbers could flip to the Democrats easily. Such as Hillsborough's 15th seat.

https://ready2vote.com/special-elections

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Massachusetts and Mississippi are two joke states with their refusal to release the results. Baker and Bryant should be ashamed of themselves for this embarrassing action.

[mds32]

Massachusetts and Mississippi are two joke states with their refusal to release the results. Baker and Bryant should be ashamed of themselves for this embarrassing action.

Don't blame them, that falls the elected Secretaries of State's of the states.

[McGovernForPrez]

I'm feeling real confident about the New Hampshire legislature flipping next year. If you applied a 9 point swing across the board in state Senate races, you'd get about 6 seats flipping R -> D, which is 3 more than necessary for Democrats to take control. 11 point swing and you get maybe 7 or 8 seats. By no means am I suggesting you would see a uniform swing, but Republicans really only barely held their ground in the state Senate in terms of their win margins, so it's  hard to see them holding on in 2018. Ditto for the state House.

You're just making indyrep's day.

[_]

Can NH House and Senate both be one short of flipping D just to make Indyrep angry?

[Dr. Arch]

Can NH House and Senate both be one short of flipping D just to piss Indyrep off?

You know it's not gonna happen, and Sununu will likely lose too. TNVol has full premonition of NH politics, xD

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Good job to dems in nh sd 16! As Krazen would say, "dominating!"

[_]

Can NH House and Senate both be one short of flipping D just to piss Indyrep off?

You know it's not gonna happen, and Sununu will likely lose too. TNVol has full premonition of NH politics, xD

If only the Rs could have nominated someone other than Scott Brown in 14'.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/Cindy4Senate/status/890024128874524673

Cindy Friedman‏ @Cindy4Senate  36m
I'm humbled & honored to be elected the 4th Middlesex state Senator tonight. I look forward to working with all of you!

Democratic candidate declared victory in Massachusetts, no idea on margins though.

[Ebsy]

Friedman got 89% of the vote, no Republican filed, so the swing is massive but does not really tell us much.

[Ebsy]

Stacey Wilkes won in Mississippi. Pretty sure she was the generic Republican, though special elections in Mississippi are nonpartisan. No idea on margins or anything.

[GlobeSoc]

Stacey Wilkes won in Mississippi. Pretty sure she was the generic Republican, though special elections in Mississippi are nonpartisan. No idea on margins or anything.

Runoff or no?

[Ebsy]

Stacey Wilkes won in Mississippi. Pretty sure she was the generic Republican, though special elections in Mississippi are nonpartisan. No idea on margins or anything.

Runoff or no?

Not sure, but I suspect no runoff. The person on her facebook page simply said she won. I'll keep an eye out for the official results though.

[Donerail]

Pour one out for the DLP dynasty, out of power in Miami at long last. Perez wins HD-116 in a walk, Diaz wins SD-40 in something more like a brisk sprint.

[McGovernForPrez]

Friedman got 89% of the vote, no Republican filed, so the swing is massive but does not really tell us much.

After looking into where that district is located I'm not surprised that no Republican filed. The only R voting town in that district is Billerica. For what it's worth no Republican filed in 2016 either.

[MarkD]

Friedman got 89% of the vote, no Republican filed, so the swing is massive but does not really tell us much.

After looking into where that district is located I'm not surprised that no Republican filed. The only R voting town in that district is Billerica. For what it's worth no Republican filed in 2016 either.

Republicans have not bothered running for that district in most of the elections in the last 21 years, and even when they do run, they usually get beat by 2 to 1. The district just voted 61.33% for Clinton, 32.37% for Trump last November. Martha Coakley narrowly won here in her losing race for Governor in 2014.

[Ebsy]

Mississippi result:
Wilkes: 1,375
Kelly: 812
Frazier: 531

Just barely avoided a runoff.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Next elections:

Senate   MO   28   8/8/17               
House   MO   50   8/8/17   

[Gass3268]

Next elections:

Senate   MO   28   8/8/17               
House   MO   50   8/8/17   

Not sure what the PVI is for HD50, but there is a lot of Boone County in that district. SD28 is Safe R.

[Ebsy]

If anyone is interested, I calculated the 2016 Presidential and Senate numbers this morning.

2012 President:

Obama: 37.7 (44.4 statewide)
Romney: 60 (53.6)

2016 President

Clinton: 36.7 (38.1)
Trump: 57.7 (56.8 )

2012 Senate

McCaskill: 48.7 (54.8 )
Akin: 43.3 (39.1)

2016 Senate (two party)

Kander: 45.7 (48.5)
Blunt: 54.3 (51.5)

[mds32]

Next week the "primaries" for the Washington State Special Elections will be occurring

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Results Pages for the WA jungle primaries tonight:

http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20170801/Judicial-All.html

http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20170801/Legislative-All.html


Polls close at 11 PM EST

[KingSweden]

Any predictions for WA-SD45 tonight?