UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Blair]

This story really as Al says seems to be morphing into Aberfan levels of tragedy. The governments response has been very slow; no doubt because they've been monumentally distracted with A.) Trying to form a Government B.) Do a Queens Speech C.) Get ready for the Brexit Talks next week. All Theresa May had to do was visit on Wednesday or Thursday, meet with residents, announce the inquiry+some other things and take the abuse.

I really can't see May surviving; the only thing she's being kept for is a Queens Speech. It feels very much like Brown in '09 where everything just seemed to be going wrong all the time. 

[Blair]

This is when someone comes in the with Paxman's hot take that Corbyn's manifesto actually wasn't that left wing, and was simply Milibandism on steroids.

Worth Corbyn arguably has moved the party to the right on immigration, and has convinced an extremely pro-EU party to adopt a more euroskeptic tone. Of course the right of the party would have done the same.

My knowledge of pre-'79 Labour politics is shaky but wasn't the 1974-76 Wilson Government pretty on the left, at least before the recession really hit hard.

[Blair]

I just realized the UK hasn't had a left wing government in nearly 40 years.
That is all.

Wow, thanks for this blisteringly hot take, random american.

LOL

No but really, when I first realized this I was shocked.

Weak hot take. If you wanted to go further you should have claimed Wilson's and Callaghan's governments were not left either, and a true hot take master would suggest the UK, in fact, has never had a left wing government.

Not even Attlee's government was left wing! He was very, very dedicated to the monarchy!

If I was trolling from the left (which I often do, if people are being particularly ahistorical in their "left wing Old Labour/Right wing NuLabour" screeds) it is very easy to suggest Attlee would today be on the centre-right of the party. He and his allies came to power in the party by defeating Lansbury and his pacifist idealogy, formed a national government with hated Imperialist/arch conservative former Chancellor Churchill, instituted a draft and various war measures that suppressed various freedoms, led a government characterized by austerity and rationing, rejected Bevan's ideas of a broad left coalition, suppressed strikes, developed the atomic bomb, joined the Korean war and the start of the cold war machinations and still had a very suspicious role in the declining Empire.

This is not to say I don't like him - he is almost certainly the best PMs we have ever had and his government one of the most important, and in terms of personality an amazing guy, but True Leftists who want to be honest to the historical record should really be honest with themelves.

New Labour weren't right wing (and I never said they were), but they weren't left wing either, they were Centrists, which is why I didn't count them as left wing.

Blair/Brown/Mandelson were right-wing in the context of Labour itself. Labour's leadership often comes from the right of the party, and even most Left Labour leaders (or right/centre leaders that gained power through an alliance with the Left) leaders have had rightist elements to their cabinets and administrations. Regardless of your personal feelings towards Blair and Corbyn, the latter is far more of an abhorration in the party's history.

The point is, that if you dismiss NuLab for being "centrists", there is no reason to call every Labour government (insert any social democratic party here) a bunch of centrists, especially given that they were responding to unique contexts (for example, the postwar command economy was a lot different to Britain in the 60's or late 90's).

I never said New Labour were somehow worse then Old Labour because they were centrist, or that their achievements were hollow because of it (in fact, I probably line up with New Labour more then Old Labour myself), all I said was that I was shocked to realize the UK hasn't had a left wing government (as in, Centre-Left, Left or Far Left) in a generation, when plenty of Brits are left wingers.

I mean I'd dispute the idea that we're a left wing country- sure you get polls showing that people want nationalised trains/better public services but on issues like taxation, immigration and welfare we're still very much not on the left

[Blair]

The Blairite rump have went silent, but it remains to be seen how on board they are. Factional amendments scheduled for the conference are in the media today:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-jeremy-corbyn-conference-rule-changes-date-clp-nec-national-executive-committee-labour-first-a7817121.html

I know this is an old post, but I couldn't help laughing at criticism of factional amendments from the right, when the major amendment for 2017 is the McDonnell amendment (which is now redundant)

[Blair]

FWIW it looks like she jumped before she was pushed, even if it was going to be in 2018 or sometime later.

Will either be Neil Findlay, Alew Rowley (the acting leader) or Anas Sarwar.

The election will be 'one member, one vote' but I'm not sure how many members we have in Scotland now (it was down to 10,000 or something pitiful last summer) FWIW this leadership election will be interesting- Scottish members backed Owen Smith as well last summer, and even now they won't simply back whoever the leadership backs.

I'm not that upset about Kezia; people I know in Labour circles liked her but I never thought she was great. She should take credit for taking the job when no-one wanted it back in '15.

[Blair]

The fat men in the suits have already picked their choice.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/88576/ex-union-official-pole-position-succeed-kezia

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[Blair]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41235522

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Good news for May, Bad News for Corbyn?

Brexit could be a divisive issue for Labour.  Much of the younger vote, those in university towns, London, ethnic minorities as well as Scotland (where they need to gain to get a majority) favour remaining in the single market, but much of Labour's core vote in the Industrial North voted heavily to leave thus the dilemma.  Come too heavily on the leave side and risk doing poorly in Scotland perhaps more splitting of the progressive vote with the Liberal Democrats while come out in favour of staying in the single market and risk losing all the marginal seats in the Industrial North.

In regards to the Lib Dems they're really not an issue; even against the ultra-leave supporter Kate Hoey, in a seat that was 80% remain they still lost by 20,000 votes.

I'm probably demographically the exact type they should be winning; white, male uni graduate from London, who dislikes JC and is very anti-Brexit- but I still voted Labour. The combination of them running a homophobe as their leader, combined with the baggage of the coalition means that a lot of 'progressive' voters aren't going to move the Lib Dems.

The Liberal Democrats are very much a paper tiger; the major issue is that they're no longer hated, but rather they're laughed at.

Caroline Flint (former front bencher and fairly high profile figure on the Labour Party's right) abstained on the bill.

Fairly awful move; she does represent a very strong leave seat in Doncaster but this is reaching the levels of self flagellation to please leave voters.

[Blair]

What people forget is that, taken together, Labour voters are the section of the electorate least interested in Brexit.

This, and in addition, Brexit is a bed that the Tories made by themselves and that the Tories get to lie in. If Theresa May and co also want to set that bed on fire, then it is entirely not Labour's problem.

I've heard of a lot of people say this; yes a recession, or some sort of chaos in 2019 that brings down the government would help Labour but it's going to be hard to do a lot of what Labour wants to do if we're significantly worse off.

Usual fluff about 'country first' Labour don't want to inherit a country that is completely wayward and desolate (one reason why the first term and a half of New Labour was so relatively easy was because the economy was doing relatively well, and Britain wasn't really floundering)

[Blair]

Anyone know any details about the UKIP election? Bolton was definitely not on my radar. I figured Whittle and Waters would come out on top.

I'd seen him mentioned as being Farage's chosen candidate (IIRC he did an event with him) and I saw a times article on thursday saying that he could win.

I think my uncle voted for him when he ran for Police and Crime Commissioner back in 2012; he seems the most sane out of all those running, and is what an ideal UKIP leader would look like (Ex-Army, sensible, white male over the age of 50 etc) but of course only 12,000 people voted, the party is broke, it has no support etc.

 

[Blair]

I'm no fan of Anne Marie Waters to say the least, but some of the abuse aimed at her by some of her fellow UKIPers has been utterly hypocritical.

It does actually seem that the least bigoted candidate won.

In all fairness though Waters had got tons of ex-BNP activists to join, and other figures outside the party (but yes of course UKIP were happy for their votes in 2015)

[Blair]

Add to that the economic and logistical disaster that will follow anything but a business-as-usual seamless transition, which would be unacceptable to the Brexit fundamentalists in the Tory ranks.

The real tragedy is that with the Tories so consumed by their petty internal squabbles, the bureaucratic and constitutional process of extricating the UK from the EU is receiving hardly any attention or thought. It was a dreadful idea to begin with but this just ensures it will be a catastrophe for the Tories and the country (possibly not in that order).

The only bright side is that Labour is going to run against such a mess, and be bequeathed such a ruthlessly centralized system of cabinet/committee legislative prerogatives, they'll be able to enact an agenda more sweeping and revolutionary than they ever would have if the Tories had gone for a soft Brexit.

That assumes Labour wins next time around.  The polls are still fairly close and I suspect the Tories will hit the Labour much harder with their attacks.  Also the strong turnout amongst millennials may or may not materialize again.  Never mind if a true hung parliament where the Liberal Democrats are the party holding the balance of power expect another quick election.  Also I think with a different leader the Tories might do a bit better.  While others disagree, I think Boris Johnson with his common touch and also more urban oriented would help the party somewhat.  Although if they fall far enough in the polls might not matter.

This may have been true in 2012 (I always thought Boris was extremely over-hyped as a retail politician; his only achievement being beating Ken Livingstone during Labours lowest polling period in 2008, and again in 2012 when most people thought Ken was a tax dodging anti-Semite.)

But it's certainly not true now; Boris is absolutely toxic after the referendum to remain voters. His likability has absolutely plummeted, in the last campaign he was just sent to leave areas and he's also not helped by the various gaffes he's made as foreign secretary.

The Tories best hope is to someone stretch out the election until 2022; and hope that someone new can be given enough time as a minister, such as James Cleverly, Ruth Davidson etc. They'd almost benefit from going into opposition and having a completely fresh face.

It's starting to look like Labour in 09-10 when everyone knew Brown had to go, but no-one really wanted to be Prime Minister.

[Blair]

It's starting to look like Labour in 09-10 when everyone knew Brown had to go, but no-one really wanted to be Prime Minister.

I agree, though with the crucial difference that the next election does not have to be in the next 18 months. That adds the only real wild card (aka 'faint hope') for the Tories. If they somehow hold on until 2022, enough time will have passed for there to be some change in the dynamics of their party/leadership, or that of Labour's.

I'm at a loss as to how they would struggle on that long; it would be an unprecedentedly long spell for a minority parliament, and there are so many stumbling blocks (and such poor leaders to handle them) that it is almost unthinkable ... and yet, I also can't see how the Tories either lose a vote of no-confidence or voluntarily call another election.

The last paragraph hits the nail on the head; the Labour Government lasted 5 years in the 1970s, and that government had arguably worse issues to deal with than Brexit. They also lacked one stable coalition party.

The DUP are actually the most reliable coalition party you could get; they're virtually a sister party, and unlike the Greens/SNP/Liberals, they never have to contend with being on the same ballot paper as they're partners.

The whole thing is hilarous as a friend of mine who's a Tory Activist spend the whole of April and May saying how weak the party is, and how if May suddenly quit they'd be no-one to take over

[Blair]

Add to that the economic and logistical disaster that will follow anything but a business-as-usual seamless transition, which would be unacceptable to the Brexit fundamentalists in the Tory ranks.

The real tragedy is that with the Tories so consumed by their petty internal squabbles, the bureaucratic and constitutional process of extricating the UK from the EU is receiving hardly any attention or thought. It was a dreadful idea to begin with but this just ensures it will be a catastrophe for the Tories and the country (possibly not in that order).

The only bright side is that Labour is going to run against such a mess, and be bequeathed such a ruthlessly centralized system of cabinet/committee legislative prerogatives, they'll be able to enact an agenda more sweeping and revolutionary than they ever would have if the Tories had gone for a soft Brexit.

That assumes Labour wins next time around.  The polls are still fairly close and I suspect the Tories will hit the Labour much harder with their attacks.  Also the strong turnout amongst millennials may or may not materialize again.  Never mind if a true hung parliament where the Liberal Democrats are the party holding the balance of power expect another quick election.  Also I think with a different leader the Tories might do a bit better.  While others disagree, I think Boris Johnson with his common touch and also more urban oriented would help the party somewhat.  Although if they fall far enough in the polls might not matter.

This may have been true in 2012 (I always thought Boris was extremely over-hyped as a retail politician; his only achievement being beating Ken Livingstone during Labours lowest polling period in 2008, and again in 2012 when most people thought Ken was a tax dodging anti-Semite.)

But it's certainly not true now; Boris is absolutely toxic after the referendum to remain voters. His likability has absolutely plummeted, in the last campaign he was just sent to leave areas and he's also not helped by the various gaffes he's made as foreign secretary.

The Tories best hope is to someone stretch out the election until 2022; and hope that someone new can be given enough time as a minister, such as James Cleverly, Ruth Davidson etc. They'd almost benefit from going into opposition and having a completely fresh face.

It's starting to look like Labour in 09-10 when everyone knew Brown had to go, but no-one really wanted to be Prime Minister.

I agree Labour could win a plurality, but considering how polarizing Corbyn is where exactly would he pick up the 64 seats he needs to win a majority.  Scotland I guess is a wildcard, but in England/Wales there are only 30 maybe 40 at most seats they could realistically flip.  Any constituency the Tories got over 50% will be tough to flip unless the Liberal Democrats or UKIP does better next time as I don't think many Tory voters will move over to a Corbyn led Labour.  Now if Andy Burnham, Owen Smith, or Sadiq Khan were leader that is a different story.  Never mind some traditional blue collar constituencies in the midlands and north like Barrow in Furness, Bishop Auckland, Dudley North, Newcastle Under Lyme, and Ashfield are trending heavily towards the Conservatives thus even if Labour gains, trends would suggest they are at risk of losing these.  While a bit tedious, do you have a list of 64 constituencies you realistically think Corbyn could flip or at least describe what parts of the country that they currently hold that could flip as I cannot seem to find them.  My best case scenario has Labour at around 310 seats while worse case has them falling to around 240 seats.  For the Tories I have best case around 340 seats so a majority and worst case around 270 seats.

Even as someone who worked for Owen's campaign last summer I'd disagree; he seemed like a cheap career politician (who's literal path was former advisor, lobbyist, MP, Shadow minister) and was basically a welsh Ed Miliband.

Andy Burnham, and Sadiq are of course much more skilled politicians (with Sadiq being a much better one; see 2015) and would probably win the next election but they're both out of parliament (I expect Sadiq to try and get a seat again after 2024)

I made the mistake of thinking 'where will Labour get voters from' and thought it would doom them but for every Labour 2015-Tory 2017 voter there was, they were replaced with 4 new voters (2 new voters, 1 socially liberal tory, 1 Green Party voter etc).

If you want a seat that explains this nicely look at Croydon Central Urban seat on the edge of London, lots of young professionals, lots of younger voters, lots of non-white voters, and lots of people who probably voted Tory last time but not this time. That was the funny thing about 2017- Labour won some seats that it lost in the 2005 election!

Stephen Bush explains here just how this has allowed a good chance in the next election as Labour have a good floor to build from.

Electoral Calculus has a great feature which lets you plug in results and see what seats could flip

[Blair]

So if May demotes Boris, who gets the Foreign Secretary slot?

Michael Fallon? Gove? The problem with Foreign Secretary is that, as Johnson is right to bemoan, it's been stripped off all its power (lost the international development department, and now Trade and Brexit) and considering we can't do much until 2019 it's a pretty unforgiving job.

From what I've read the reshuffle will probably keep a lot of jobs the same; they'll just bring in a lot of new junior minister. No doubt Hunt will somehow survive for the 100th time; the current Tory Cabinet is really weak

[Blair]

In the never ending combination of Brexit wars it looks like Phillip Hammond (nicknamed spreadsheet Phil, later revised to spreadsh**t Phil) is going to face another difficult budget.

It's worth noting the tories haven't had a successful budget since summer 2015; autumn 2015 had the tax credit fiasco, summer 2016 was the 'project fear' budget that angered the right, and the spring budget this year had the chaos of the National Insurance tax rise on small businesses.

I expect this current one will lead to some crisis; the government has such a small majority that 1 or 2 MPs can just cough some objection, and it virtually leads to a climbdown.

And well this would be hard in normal times, but Hammond has to deal with the black hole of Brexit and the mouth breathers on the right, whilst also trying to show that he understands that the Tories need some sort of electoral offer to both the young and the old.


However he could easily get sacked after the Budget, as a fair amount of tories are calling for him to be sacked; and replaced with Gove.

[Blair]

In the never ending combination of Brexit wars it looks like Phillip Hammond (nicknamed spreadsheet Phil, later revised to spreadsh**t Phil) is going to face another difficult budget.

It's worth noting the tories haven't had a successful budget since summer 2015; autumn 2015 had the tax credit fiasco, summer 2016 was the 'project fear' budget that angered the right, and the spring budget this year had the chaos of the National Insurance tax rise on small businesses.

I expect this current one will lead to some crisis; the government has such a small majority that 1 or 2 MPs can just cough some objection, and it virtually leads to a climbdown.

And well this would be hard in normal times, but Hammond has to deal with the black hole of Brexit and the mouth breathers on the right, whilst also trying to show that he understands that the Tories need some sort of electoral offer to both the young and the old.


However he could easily get sacked after the Budget, as a fair amount of tories are calling for him to be sacked; and replaced with Gove.

I thought Tory-DUP actually gives realistically a 6 seat cushion as the 7 Sinn Fein MPs have an abstentionist policy so they are never in the House to vote the government down.  If the Sinn Fein MPs actually showed up the government would be in much greater danger of falling as they only need to lose two by-elections which is probably likely prior to 2022 whereas losing 7 seems like a lot.  Do you know how many they lost between 1992-1997 and if they do lose 7, how long did it take as that would be good basis to go on.

The SNP, considering how they did in the last election, are not likely to vote for another one.

In other news, new Labour MP accused of sexist comments

The MP who defeated Nick Clegg for all things.  Wonder how people will feel although probably won't matter.  I was wondering how come Nick Clegg survived the 2015 route but couldn't survive 2017?  Was it stronger youth turnout that did him in as I suspect some Tories probably tactically voted for him to stop a Labour win.

Also another new MP who is embarrassment is Laura Pidcock who said she won't hang out with Tories.  From what I've read on her she seems like a real left wing firebrand and SJW, sort of Britain's version of Niki Ashton here in Canada.

The other nutty one but has been around for a long time is Dennis Skinner who seems to be fairly far out there.  Ironically his constituency has become more competitive so the Tories might have a shot at it if he resigns or dies (he is in his 80s now).

FWIW I'd put money on him losing the whip today, and possibly resigning by Friday if anything awful comes out.

I'm not sure if you saw but it's been leaked by Guido Fawkes (the infamous almost alt-right parliamentary gossip website, which has a long history of basically causing sh**t for politicians) I have my own suspicions on who actually gave the tip off; but they've been leaking it slowly for the last two days, and the worst is still to come on.

Clegg lost for four reasons
1.) The Lib Dem vote share actually dropped between 2015 and 2017
2.) A lot of tories in Sheffield Hallam voted Lib Dem tactically in 2015 (the former Tory PPC sent letters to tory voters saying 'vote for Nick' as they needed him for a coalition, and to deprive Labour 3.) The tory vote share went up by 5k, so less voted tactically.
4.) Labour did a lot better. Sheffield Hallam is the stereotypical Corbyn seat; affluent, with enough young people to make a difference, higher turnout, switches from the Green party etc

[Blair]

FWIW my uncle lives in Fallon's seat and it's not at all the type of seat that the tories would lose; even in a by-election, with a struggling economy.

I can't see Labour ever standing down for the Liberal Democrats; I mean Labour came ahead of the Liberal Democrats in 2015 and 2017!!! I had to actually check, but it reminded me the assumption that most people have (aka the liberals are always going to be 2nd in seats like this) died when the coalition did.

Does anyone know how many Blairites are still left or have most of them moved on?  I don't mean MPs who were members during the Blair government, but rather people who were strongly supportive of Tony Blair's agenda.  In particular are there any pro-war Labour MPs who voted for Iraq still there?

Saw this unanswered, and thought I'd bite.

I'd guess in the PLP there are about 20-30 actual 'Blairites'. In the sense of being pro-European, economically on the right of the party, and hawkish on foreign affairs (and voted for David Miliband/Liz Kendall)

In fact if I actually counted the new intake in PLP it would probably be less. There's a lot of reasons; general churn (there's been three elections since Blair was last leader) lack of government chances to keep the more 'talented' lot interested (James Purnell, David Miliband, Alan Milburn, Alan Johnson are all people who now enjoy various roles outside of the Commons) and the drift in the party.

Ironically the old Brownite faction of the party is probably the strongest in terms of pure numbers (and was the faction that backed Smith over Eagle in the 2016 chaos) and has more MPs remaining who voted for Iraq.

The Blairite faction was dead in May 2015 when Chukka dropped out, and they split between supporting Burnham,(Falconer, Blunkett etc) Cooper (Alan Johnson) and Kendall. I could write a lot more about how the actual right of Labour (of which even I don't identity with) has been unpopular for years, has a lack of money, a lack of talent and no real support in the PLP.

[Blair]

I mean I can't see a single Labour MP from the right of the party who would be able to win seats like Copeland. I can't remember who said it on this thread but there's a massive difference between being a moderate in Labour, and being a successful PM. I mean these seats where moving away from Labour in 2015.

Blair's strength wasn't just because he moved the party's policy on income tax; it was because he was able to explain why that was necessary, and what else he was going to do.

[Blair]

I mean I can't see a single Labour MP from the right of the party who would be able to win seats like Copeland.

Are there many constituencies in which the main employer is a nuclear reprocessing station? O/c the seat would have been held absent the by-election and was nearly taken back anyway...

I know that Labour's candidate was fiercely pro-Sellafield (if that was the name of it?), as she was married to an employer and seemed to spend a lot of energy talking about it. But Ofc that was drowned out by unpopularity of Corbyn back then.

[Blair]

FWIW a minor talented minister like Truss won't waste her career to allow someone else to become leader; as explained here you can't do stalking horse challenges anymore, you need the leader to quit or lose a no-confidence vote

[Blair]

I can't be bothered to link to the various headlines but there's a good deal of juicy stuff in tomorrow papers (to the extent I might get up to watch Marr tomorrow morning for the paper summary) Fallon apparently lunged at a journalist; which is why he was sacked, the police found dodgy videos on Damian Green (the de-facto deputy PM) computer and questions are being raised about the whips/leaking that has came from No.10.

Usual warnings; but this is starting to feel like something that may cause the government serious harm.

[Blair]

I guess I was comparing more to Tony Blair's 2005 win as you saw him win in a number of mixed urban/rural constituencies in Kent, Staffordshire as well as East Midlands where Corbyn not only lost, but wasn't close.  Likewise the Liberal Democrats won many rural ones in the Southwest and most of those the Tories got over 50%.  Likewise if you look at the margins in the core urban ones, Corbyn got over 70% in several constituencies and over 80% in a few whereas I don't think under Blair they ever cracked the 80% mark in any and only in his first win in 1997 did you see them getting over 70% in multiple constituencies not subsequent ones.  You saw the same with Hillary Clinton which is why she won the popular vote despite losing the electoral college.  Also it seems every time the boundaries change, they tend to favour the Tories as I am guessing the suburban areas just beyond the large cities are the fastest growing and popular seaside towns for retirees.

FWIW I'd be careful to compare 2017 to an election that was 20 years before it in terms of seats, mainly because A.) It was a snap election B.) All the minor parties collapsed C.) Turnout was higher D.) Socially liberal conservatives who voted Remain didn't vote tory.

All this can explains why seats like mine (and tons of others in London/Bristol etc) suddenly gained 10,000 votes

[Blair]

I know it's always said that this is the worst week for a government in years, but this not only beats anything from 2010-2015, but also makes the week in October where the stage fall apart and TM started coughing look like a rather funny joke.

Both the Johnson and Patel incident are damaging to our international reputation, clearly broke the ministerial code, and frankly showed that both had absolutely awful judgement. Neither one has apologized, Pretti Patel has lied about 4 times (including to No.10) and it's just making us look like a complete joke.

The fact that No.10 won't fire either one (Patel should, and most likely will get sacked tomorrow if more comes out) makes me wonder what is the point in Theresa May being Prime Minister? I could understand if she cared about Brexit, or if she wanted to stop someone becoming Leader, but she's actively destroying what's left of her reputation

[Blair]

I know it's always said that this is the worst week for a government in years, but this not only beats anything from 2010-2015, but also makes the week in October where the stage fall apart and TM started coughing look like a rather funny joke.

Both the Johnson and Patel incident are damaging to our international reputation, clearly broke the ministerial code, and frankly showed that both had absolutely awful judgement. Neither one has apologized, Pretti Patel has lied about 4 times (including to No.10) and it's just making us look like a complete joke.

The fact that No.10 won't fire either one (Patel should, and most likely will get sacked tomorrow if more comes out) makes me wonder what is the point in Theresa May being Prime Minister? I could understand if she cared about Brexit, or if she wanted to stop someone becoming Leader, but she's actively destroying what's left of her reputation

How come Labour only has a 2 point lead.  Last time the Tories were in as much trouble, Labour had double digit leads which suggests to me contrary to what many think a more centrist leader could lead to a much bigger win, while Corbyn excites the base, but makes many middle of the road voters who may not like the Tories uncomfortable to switch over to Labour.

Again a centrist leader doesn't equal a successful leader

[Blair]

Also, neither Watson nor Healey are exactly Progress types - so touting them as moderates already says something about where the party has moved

I mean I'd say that the vast majority of both Brownites and Blairites are moderates; in both 1994, and even during the days of the TB-GBs fued the only difference was who should be leader (and some ideological disagreements about the role of the market in public services) Of course those on the right of Progess (Liz Kendall) and those on the left of the Brownites (Ed Miliband) have bigger disagreements.

In a sense Labour party ideology tends to be shaped by whose in power; with a large chunk of the party following them, allies getting promoted, candidates getting picked.

I mean I voted for Burnham, Watson and Tessa Jowell for Leader/Deputy/London Mayor in 2015, and then voted for Owen Smith last summer. Which I suppose puts me on the soft right of the party? It just proves that inter-party ideologies are extremely confusing, and make little sense.