Futures of losing house candidates

[Sam Spade]

One Republican loser who will definitely be back in some form or another is Anne Northup.  I would be surprised if Melissa Hart doesn't return also.

On a comment here:  Patsy Madrid was a terrible candidate.  The Dems in NM will try someone else again (and probably fail) in trying to get rid of Heather Wilson.

[Sam Spade]

One Republican loser who will definitely be back in some form or another is Anne Northup.  I would be surprised if Melissa Hart doesn't return also.

On a comment here:  Patsy Madrid was a terrible candidate.  The Dems in NM will try someone else again (and probably fail) in trying to get rid of Heather Wilson.

But surely Northup is tainted by the stigma of defeat?  Don't you have a theory she wants to challenge Ernie Fletcher in the 2007 GOP gubernatorial primary? 

Melissa Hart will probably run against Altmire again in 2008.  Her loss was  a blow to the Republicans who saw her as a future Governor or Senate candidate. 

Northup challenging Fletcher is simply a mere theory of mine right now.  It may turn out to be true or not.  But the idea that she's gone in politics is probably not going to be correct long-term.  She's only 58.

I'll throw out a couple of names for you that you might recognize now and ask who, of the Republican candidates who were defeated, most reminds you of these people:

Maria Cantwell
Ted Strickland

These were both incumbent House Dem. Reps. who lost in 1994.

[Sam Spade]

I think that Hart and maybe Narthrup will run again (I think she will challenge Fletcher), but it is way to early tell if they would win.  Why was Nebraska's 2nd district so close?  Undecided race update: the Pryce-Kilroy and Schmidit-Wilson races won't be decided until around nov. 20th or 21st.  Also, Richert is leading in Washington's 8th district with 70% of votes counted (51%-49%). 

Few people seem to understand this, but NE-02 is the most liberal CD in Nebraska, containing inner Omaha.  Bush got 60% here in 2004, and 57% in 2000. (NE-01 voted about 63% Bush in 2004 and 59% in 2000).

In 2004, Lee Terry got 61% of the vote, right about even with national numbers.  In 2002, he got 63%.  In 2000, he got 64%.  I can't seem to find the 1998 results, when he was first elected.

In short, it is quite possible that there is a downward trend since 2000 in his numbers down to the partisan mean, but a 5% shift towards the Democrat this year in comparison to the partisan mean is not surprising for 2006, since that's the basic average shift I've been noticing throughout the country in nearly ever Congressional race.

Of more important note is Lee Fortenberry's (NE-01) gain of 5% from 54% in 2004 to 59% in 2006.  He won this open House seat in 2004 by a fairly tight margin, but the 2006 numbers (where it appears he ran even to ahead of the national mean for 2006 (with the -5% shift, not 2004) seem to indicate that he's entrenched himself in this CD and will be impossible to beat in the future, barring scandal.

[Sam Spade]

Sam, do you think the Democrats have a shot at beating any of the Nebraska reps in 2008?  I know it is VERY early and that Fortenberry is safe and Terry probably is as well, but if Kleeb ran would he stand a real shot of beating Smith?

In a Presidential year, the short answer is no.  I sincerely doubt conditions will be more favorable to Democrats in 2008 than 2006; in fact, they may not be this favorable again for quite a while into the future.