Ukraine Crisis

[ag]

Propaganda or no propaganda, within the next week or two the West will have to decide how to respond to Russian invasion of mainland Ukraine. And if the response is inadequate, within a year or two the West will have to decide how to respond to Russian invasion of a state that has been pledged full protection.

This. I'm just glad that a Republican isn't president right now. If this situation isn't brought to a satisfactory conclusion in two years, this saving grace will no longer be the case.

What is it that you believe to be a "satisfactory conclusion"?

[afleitch]

Russian planes have been violating Ukrainian airspace.

[MATTROSE94]

Russian planes have been violating Ukrainian airspace.

Not good. How likely is it that the U.S. will break off diplomatic relations with Russia at this point?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Russian planes have been violating Ukrainian airspace.

Not good. How likely is it that the U.S. will break off diplomatic relations with Russia at this point?

Not likely at all.  I don't think that would happen even if Russian tanks roll into Donetsk.  What could happen is a total breaking off of economic relations, including severing of Russia from the world financial system which would severely hamper its trade even with those countries that continue to trade with it.

[Person Man]

Propaganda or no propaganda, within the next week or two the West will have to decide how to respond to Russian invasion of mainland Ukraine. And if the response is inadequate, within a year or two the West will have to decide how to respond to Russian invasion of a state that has been pledged full protection.

This. I'm just glad that a Republican isn't president right now. If this situation isn't brought to a satisfactory conclusion in two years, this saving grace will no longer be the case.

What is it that you believe to be a "satisfactory conclusion"?

Where it becomes much less likely that Ukraine is invaded and Ukraine is not invaded.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Russian planes have been violating Ukrainian airspace.

Not good. How likely is it that the U.S. will break off diplomatic relations with Russia at this point?

Not likely at all.  I don't think that would happen even if Russian tanks roll into Donetsk.  What could happen is a total breaking off of economic relations, including severing of Russia from the world financial system which would severely hamper its trade even with those countries that continue to trade with it.

We never broke relations with the USSR, so I don't see us breaking off with Russia unless we directly go to war with them.

[Middle-aged Europe]

A group of OSCE military observers led by a German army colonel has been taken prisoner by a pro-Russian militia group in Sloviansk.

Militia leader accuses them of espionage, but says he's willing to trade them against imprisoned separatists.

It took only two months for Ukraine to turn into friggin Afghanistan.

[Sec. of State Superique]

I have this feeling that Ukranians will end up having to accept Russia taking over Crimea but I fo believe that peace is yet possible. Ukraine shall be allowed to join in the European Union in exchange it doesn't enter in NATO and give more autonomy to its Oblasts.

[Velasco]

Nobody has considered seriously amongst European governments that Ukraine was going to be admitted in the EU anytime soon. I think Poroshenko has stated his country is not yet ready and, on the other hand, joining NATO is too divisive and can "ruin the country".

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/198839.html

On the other hand, a certain degree of decentralisation plus reverting the measures on Russian language taken by the interim government look reasonable. However, Putin might want to create a Republika SPRSKA in Eastern Ukraine and that would be certainly unacceptable.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The mayor of Kharkiv was severely wounded in a shooting.

[ag]

I have this feeling that Ukranians will end up having to accept Russia taking over Crimea but I fo believe that peace is yet possible. Ukraine shall be allowed to join in the European Union in exchange it doesn't enter in NATO and give more autonomy to its Oblasts.

Crimea will be de facto Russian for some time. Ukraine will not "accept" it (that would be a betrayal of the Tartars), but there is little that can be done about it right now. But Putin will lead Russia into a sufficient disaster, eventually, to loose it - no real reason for Ukraine to drop the claim. Though, of course, no active actions will be taken - but neither will the sanctions be removed.

Ukraine will not be able to enter the EU meaningfully any time soon: too poor and too underdeveloped. It can, and should, enter NATO though: it needs protection. If, of course, NATO is really a protection. In any case, whatever Ukraine does cannot be conditioned on any agreements with Russia. Russia is incapable of making agreements under its current regime: the only certainty about its behavior is that it will violate any agreement it signs.

[Famous Mortimer]

The mayor of Kharkiv was severely wounded in a shooting.

Moderate PORer. Shot by either pro-Russians or Ukrainians trying to frame Russians.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The mayor of Kharkiv was severely wounded in a shooting.

Moderate PORer. Shot by either pro-Russians or Ukrainians trying to frame Russians.

Maybe he wasn't enough of a social conservative and too much of a fiscal conservative to have any firm base in the Luhansk caucuses.

[Silent Hunter]

I have this feeling that Ukranians will end up having to accept Russia taking over Crimea but I fo believe that peace is yet possible. Ukraine shall be allowed to join in the European Union in exchange it doesn't enter in NATO and give more autonomy to its Oblasts.

Crimea will be de facto Russian for some time. Ukraine will not "accept" it (that would be a betrayal of the Tartars), but there is little that can be done about it right now. But Putin will lead Russia into a sufficient disaster, eventually, to loose it - no real reason for Ukraine to drop the claim. Though, of course, no active actions will be taken - but neither will the sanctions be removed.

Exactly; the US never recognised the incorporation of the Baltic states into the USSR in 1940 and it took 50 years before they were independent again.

[Velasco]

There's at least one problem with that thesis, and is that there's a majority of 'ethnic' Russians in Crimea -not to mention Sevastopol-. Anyway, who knows what will happen in the next decades? One thing is sure and is that Putin is uglifying this world, and it was ugly enough before this crisis. Did anyone read his speech on 'Novaya Rossiya'?

As for Crimean Tatars, I feel concern on them. Did the interim government help them declaring traitors those who accepted Russian passports knowing that they are under pressure?

[ag]

There's at least one problem with that thesis, and is that there's a majority of 'ethnic' Russians in Crimea -not to mention Sevastopol-. Anyway, who knows what will happen in the next decades? One thing is sure and is that Putin is uglifying this world, and it was ugly enough before this crisis. Did anyone read his speech on 'Novaya Rossiya'?

As for Crimean Tatars, I feel concern on them. Did the interim government help them declaring traitors those who accepted Russian passports knowing that they are under pressure?

1. Well, who knows how many Russian states there will be out there when all of this is over Anyways, given the Russian track record, I will not be surprised if many of those Russians leave for the mainland, rather then enjoy the Russian governance in situ. I would be pleasantly surprised in fact, if Crimean population (including Sevastopol)  is much bigger than 1.5 mln (as compared to about 2.5 now) in 20 years . And by then, with Ukraine well on the path to EU membership and Russia still a pariah, many of the remaining Russians will be tempted to remember they have the right to the Ukrainian citizenship.

2. Tartar and current Ukrainian leadership are working in extremely close contact. Dzhemilev - the undisputed leader of the Tartar movement - is in Kiev and in the Rada. I believe (though on this one I may be wrong) Chubarov (Dzhemilev's heir apparent as the head of the movement) is also spending much of his time in Kiev. So is  I stronly doubt that anything has been/ will be done about the status of Crimean residents without their agreement - if not always on their active advice.  The movement has delegated some representatives to work with the de facto Crimean authorities - as these are delegated, I have no doubts they will be forgiven for any "collaboration".  Of course, any of the marginal "alternative" leaders Russia might try to find will be severely ostracized within the community - the Tartars have been united in dissidence for so long, they know how to maintain unity.

[Velasco]

I see a problem and is that Dzhemilev is in Kiev, as you say, while the Tatars are currently under Russian de facto authorities. Aside this ethnic minority, there was people opposed to Crimea's annexation or at least not very favourable, but they have to live there and they need Russian passports. Also, from what I've been reading, many have family in Ukraine and, on having been declared 'traitors', they are banned from Ukraine's mainland. I think this is the kind of measures, alongside with the suppression of the status of Russian language in the SE and maybe others, that alienate a significant part of the population and, honestly, everybody should be interested in stabilizing the country. I'll never understand why nobody advises the interim government that some coalition partners should be expelled. Also, there is the question of the power vacuum created in the SE after the removal of Yanukovich. The PoR seems to be disintegrating and, like it or not, that corrupt and feudal structure (I don't have a great opinion of the other parties, but that's another question) was the one who was giving some political cohesion to those regions. Putin is obviously taking advantage of the situation. I suppose the only option is trying to reach a compromise with PoR 'moderates' (whatever that means in this context) and magnates like Akhmetov. It looks like hard to achieve with ultranationalists enjoying prominence.

[ag]

I see a problem and is that Dzhemilev is in Kiev, as you say, while the Tatars are currently under Russian de facto authorities. Aside this ethnic minority, there was people opposed to Crimea's annexation or at least not very favourable, but they have to live there and they need Russian passports. Also, from what I've been reading, many have family in Ukraine and, on having been declared 'traitors', they are banned from Ukraine's mainland. I think this is the kind of measures, alongside with the suppression of the status of Russian language in the SE and maybe others, that alienate a significant part of the population and, honestly, everybody should be interested in stabilizing the country. I'll never understand why nobody advises the interim government that some coalition partners should be expelled. Also, there is the question of the power vacuum created in the SE after the removal of Yanukovich. The PoR seems to be disintegrating and, like it or not, that corrupt and feudal structure (I don't have a great opinion of the other parties, but that's another question) was the one who was giving some political cohesion to those regions. Putin is obviously taking advantage of the situation. I suppose the only option is trying to reach a compromise with PoR 'moderates' (whatever that means in this context) and magnates like Akhmetov. It looks like hard to achieve with ultranationalists enjoying prominence.

I am afraid, your understanding of the situation is at wide variance with reality. Perhaps, if you cared to investigate, you would know that they have not been declared traitors, nor have they been banned from the mainland. Ukrainian government is, in fact, repeatedly stressing that it continues considering all Crimeans its citizens, and cares abiout them. It is still doing its best to provide services - if long distance. There has been no wholesale repudiation of Crimean population - Tartar or Slavic.  Rather, there are reated statements to the opposite effect.

Dzhemilev is the main accepted political leader of the Tartars. And he does care about the well-being of his people - who, by and large, are loyal to Ukraine.

[ag]

As for the situation in the East, I do not know where to begin. The local magnates have been appointed governors with full powers (that is who the governors in the East are today). The central government itself is overwhelmingly Eastern - very few of its members have any ties with the West (many more are from Russia, than from Lviv). The only radical nationalist party in the government is Svoboda - and it has been kept away from the important posts. All the major leaders are moderates. Not that it much matters: they will not be in government within a month, after an election. In which almost all candidates (all with any chance of mattering) are Eastern or Southern. I do not know where you get your info - but it is bizarre.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Breaking: Gerhard Schröder celebrates his 70th birthday with Putin in Moscow.

And the bromance continues!

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany's KSK (Special Forces Command) has denied reports that they're planning a rescure operation for the OSCE hostages in Sloviansk.

[Velasco]

As for the situation in the East, I do not know where to begin. The local magnates have been appointed governors with full powers (that is who the governors in the East are today). The central government itself is overwhelmingly Eastern - very few of its members have any ties with the West (many more are from Russia, than from Lviv). The only radical nationalist party in the government is Svoboda - and it has been kept away from the important posts. All the major leaders are moderates. Not that it much matters: they will not be in government within a month, after an election. In which almost all candidates (all with any chance of mattering) are Eastern or Southern. I do not know where you get your info - but it is bizarre.

Don't get me wrong, I didn't mean that the whole government is ultranationalist and I know that the likely winner in the next election was born in the Odessa region. However, I think that having Svoboda in the coalition has damaged the interim government. On the one hand, it gives some justification for one of the Putin's favourite strawmen (the government is "fascist"); on the other hand, it contributes to spread unrest in the SE, where many people consider the government "illegitimate". It will be good news if Svoboda is expelled after the elections and luckily radical candidates have little traction in the polls. Anyway the damage is done, specially when they have led lamentable actions like that aggression to the Ukraine's TV boss. These things have more relevancy than the portfolios they keep in the government. I don't unerstand why they remain.

As for the East, Taruta looked confident in this interview 4 days ago:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/25/billionaire-ukraine-troubled-region-serhiy-taruta

However, in the light of last events it's clear that the government has lost control and I think it's important to know what's happening with the remainders of the PoR. Reports look confusing and they seem to be ambivalent and divided:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://theconversation.com/ukrainian-troops-fight-to-fill-easts-dangerous-power-vacuum-25457

Later, that article describes the divisions inside the Party of Regions in Donetsk.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In other article Nikolai Lechenko, the PoR leader in Donetsk, states the population in the East thinks that the government is "illegitimate" and seized power in a "coup d'état" (that argument isn't new) but they are "ready to recognize the very demon", in order to avoid a bloodshed and civil war because "it's very important today to contain the radical state of mind in the southeast of the country ". In the same article that I'll link below is quoted some local analyst depicting the current state of PoR as "a person who had been ruined at the same time as the doctor diagnoses a critical illness and his couple leaves him, but even this way it's necessary as expression of the southeast of Ukraine". I don't know if you may think it's bizarre, but the lack of articulation of those who are not separatists but seek for autonomy seems worrying.

 http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/04/26/actualidad/1398537205_471010.html

On the other hand, I might be wrong or my memory failed me in what regards 'traitors' or people banned from Ukraine. In any case, I'm lacking the time. I'll give for good what you said in the previous post and apologise if you felt offended in any way.

[ag]

PoR does not exist at this point as a unit. It has broken into multiple pieces, its most popular politicians (even in the East) have been expelled. Whom are you suggesting the government should incorporate? And why would they want to be incorporated into a government that will not be a government within a month. I am afraid, your "suggestions" cannot be even formulated in a way that anybody in Ukraine would be able to understand. Who should be incorporated into what?

The inclusion of Svoboda in the government was inevitable. Especially given that except for the Batkivschina nobody else was willing to join. It is not as if being in this government were a prize anybody would be willing to die for. This is a provisional government, with little power and an extremely short term, operating in a highly stressful environment. Svoboda does represent a block in the Rada - that is a given, unfortunately. And, for god's sake, they are a lot less fascist then, say, BJP in India.

As for the talking points it gives to Putin... Listen, Putin, would be declaring Mahatma Gandhi and Winston Churchill fascists today, if that were to suite him. And he would be repeating it as many times as necessary for somebody to believe it. The guy has not said an honest word in years (if ever) - what he says is entirely unconstrained by reality. One should have long learnt to completely disregard whatever he says - except as a rough guide to his actions: as he tends to do the opposite from what he says he intends, his words are, occasionally, unintentionally informative. There is nothing the Ukrainians can do to change that - they could have appointed a full government of canonized Orthodox saints - Russian discourse would be identical.

[ag]

Breaking: Gerhard Schröder celebrates his 70th birthday with Putin in Moscow.

And the bromance continues!

Would it be possible to include him in the sanctions list?

[Nhoj]

Considering the political views of many orthodox saints would he be so wrong....