Putin Will Not Seek Reelection

[ag]

Yes, there is a limit of two consecutive terms.  It would be fairly easy to ammend the Constitution to take care of that - Putin has a 2/3 majority in the Duma (the House) and he all but appoints the Federaltion Council (the Senate - well, he appoints the governors, who appoint half of the Council, the other half is appointed by state legislatures, which he has ways of making reasonably compliant).  Though, truth be told, ever since the Constitution was adopted in 1993 it hasn't been ammended. It would also, probably, be possible to somehow "reinterpret" the Constitution to allow a reelection (the Constitution is very explicit that state governors should be elected by people of their states, not appointed from Moscow, but that wasn't an obstacle to changing the law last year to actually have them appointed).  A common trick could be to approve a new electoral law and claim that the previous terms do not count, since the president wasn't elected by the current law.

I would say it is still far too early to figure out whether he goes for another term or not. We will now some time in 2008 or late 2007 - until then it all is cheap talk.

If he doesn't, Serguei Ivanov, the Defense Minister, is a natural heir.  Believe it or not, in every respect he is scarier than his patron. The one disadvantage of this course of action is that Ivanov might be scary as far as Puting himself is concerned.   I wouldn't want to be perceived by Mr. Ivanov as a danger or an obstacle, and Putin knows his old friend very well. So if Ivanov gets the nod, it is more for real. The best deal Putin could get from him is "we'd change seats every 8 years", and even than I wouldn't trust Ivanov following up on his bargain.

So, he could also get a no-name chap to hold the seat warm.  The current PM Fradkov would fit the type, though I don't think it would be him.  Could be some perfect idiot, like the Unity Party "leader" Gryzlov. This is not an easy course of action - Russian presidency is very powerful, so the chosen guy would have to be completely incapable or running the show himself to be suitable for the role.  On the other hand he'd have to be minimally electable - he'd have to be able to get, say, 35-40% of the vote in the first round without cheating (so that cheating would do the rest).  If it goes into a second round between the two top contenders (the president has to get 50% of the vote), opposition gets a standard-bearer, and than it could be difficult to push through an obvious non-entity. Perhaps, the Emergency Situations Minister Shoigu (the only holdover from the very first Yeltin's government of Russia) could do it: he is a perfect servant, with a "can do" reputation, but without any independent political role and with no clear ability outside of running his service. His one problem would be his ethnicity: he is an ethnic Tuvin (Tuvins are Asian-looking Tibetan Buddhist Turks from Siberia), but everybody is so used to him, he could overcome that. Most likely, though, it is going to be someone we've never heard of.
 
I don't think he'd become a PM in that administration, if such a sham administration were to happen - PM is a technical job, dealing, mainly, with economic issues, and serving, largely, at the pleasure of the President. It won't do Puting any good to be a "subordinate".  More likely, he'd try the Party role.

[ag]

I don't think he'd become a PM in that administration, if such a sham administration were to happen - PM is a technical job, dealing, mainly, with economic issues, and serving, largely, at the pleasure of the President. It won't do Puting any good to be a "subordinate".  More likely, he'd try the Party role.

Couldn't he be both?

What for? Actually, that could require some tinkering with laws, though that doesn't really matter.  PM is a technical subordinate of the President, really a foil, who is normally blamed for everything that goes wrong. The post could be used to bring up the visibility and name-recognition of its occupant (as it was done w/ Putin himself in 1999), but any long-term association with it is, usually, not very good for one's popularity.  PM does not really have much of independent political role, and is at the mercy of the President. The important "political" ministeries  (Defense, Foreign Affairs, etc.) are, anyway, controlled by the boss directly.  The only good thing coming out of the role is that the PM takes over if the presidency is vacant for 3 months, while the elections are being organized. But to do that it is enough to be appointed the PM the day the President resigns.