GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Can anyone please tell me how margin of error is calculated? Thank you in advance.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

And usually the predictit market is very easily swayed, but this poll barely even moved it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Also for reference: the distribution of registered voters in the district is approximately Cobb 29%, DeKalb 23%, Fulton 48%.

Through today:

Cobb 24870 (19.4%)
DeKalb 29783 (23.3%)
Fulton 73316 (57.3%)
Total 127969

Am I wrong or doesn't in-person Ev end tomorrow? That means Cobb will be in third 

You are correct.

Dekalb has stalled. I don't like it. Cobb is not looking good for Handel, but I think Fulton will put her over the top.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Also for reference: the distribution of registered voters in the district is approximately Cobb 29%, DeKalb 23%, Fulton 48%.

Through today:

Cobb 24870 (19.4%)
DeKalb 29783 (23.3%)
Fulton 73316 (57.3%)
Total 127969

Am I wrong or doesn't in-person Ev end tomorrow? That means Cobb will be in third 

You are correct.

Dekalb has stalled. I don't like it. Cobb is not looking good for Handel, but I think Fulton will put her over the top.

Uh, Ossoff probably won the Fulton early vote, and even if Handel ends up winning Fulton when all is said and done (EV+ED), it will probably not be by any more than 2 or 3 points.

He probably did. But this thing is very close, and those 2 or 3 points could be all that it takes for Handel to pull off a squeeker, which I think will occur, but of course I aint sure.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Also for reference: the distribution of registered voters in the district is approximately Cobb 29%, DeKalb 23%, Fulton 48%.

Through today:

Cobb 24870 (19.4%)
DeKalb 29783 (23.3%)
Fulton 73316 (57.3%)
Total 127969

Am I wrong or doesn't in-person Ev end tomorrow? That means Cobb will be in third 

You are correct.

Dekalb has stalled. I don't like it. Cobb is not looking good for Handel, but I think Fulton will put her over the top.

Uh, Ossoff probably won the Fulton early vote, and even if Handel ends up winning Fulton when all is said and done (EV+ED), it will probably not be by any more than 2 or 3 points.

He probably did. But this thing is very close, and those 2 or 3 points could be all that it takes for Handel to pull off a squeeker, which I think will occur, but of course I aint sure.

Yes, we're all aware that you think Handel will win and that Ossoff is doomed. You only remind us every day.

You really should read my posts saying I think Handel will win but I'm not ruling out anything. Including my post just a few posts up.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Bagel wants Handel to win more than he actually thinks that she will win. Handel has been stuck at 47% in polling, while Ossoff has cracked 50% more than once. The concern trolls will say otherwise, but Ossoff is definitely in a better position than Handel.

I want Ossoff to win, I am a democrat. These polls are within the moe, and this thing is a virtual tie. Calling it for either Ossoff or Handel within a few points is sane. Any pure assurances or double digits should be taken within a pound of salt.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Bagel wants Handel to win more than he actually thinks that she will win. Handel has been stuck at 47% in polling, while Ossoff has cracked 50% more than once. The concern trolls will say otherwise, but Ossoff is definitely in a better position than Handel.

I want Ossoff to win, I am a democrat. These polls are within the moe, and this thing is a virtual tie. Calling it for either Ossoff or Handel within a few points is sane. Any pure assurances or double digits should be taken within a pound of salt.

Mm-hmm. Okay.

Don't get too cocky, we democrats have been $&@?!slapped multiple times for it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This is the kind of crap people like to pull when either they lack class or are out of a decent argument. I'd also like to say just because I don't subscribe to James Hodgkinson's version of what democrats should be, does not mean that I am not a democrat.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Okay, can we please stop the #AtlasPanic? Just calm down and forget this race even exists until the 20th.

But I don't have a life. I have nothing else to do.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Okay, can we please stop the #AtlasPanic? Just calm down and forget this race even exists until the 20th.

But I don't have a life. I have nothing else to do.

Then please get a life.

Ok, I'll just watch some netflix and pirated episodes of prison break until the election.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

New Landmark/WSB poll: https://twitter.com/wsbtv/status/875844942115074048

Ossoff 49.7 (+0.1)
Handel 48.0 (+0.9)

This whole race is a pure crapshoot...who knows who wins at this point

Exactly.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Team Handel bringing back the usual red meat for the GOP base:



https://twitter.com/Newsday/status/875498174286311424/

Lol this is actually kinda funny.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If he wins this year, Dems won't have a candidate in 2020 for Senate.  He would be at the top of the list.

What do you mean? If anything, him winning this year gives the Dems an amazing potential Senate candidate.

Agreed.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If he wins this year, Dems won't have a candidate in 2020 for Senate.  He would be at the top of the list.

What do you mean? If anything, him winning this year gives the Dems an amazing potential Senate candidate.

Agreed.

If he does well, I can see him running ifor President in 2024...but chances are, he turns out to be a LTC Paul Hackett type even if he wins here. He, too ran as a special congress candidate in a swingy R district after the Republicans won everything with half the country hating tgem.

President is a little too ambitious, but I could be wrong.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

What a disgusting ad. To any sane and moderate individuals in the GOP, you need to wrestle for control of the GOP again, it has been hijacked. This supersedes politics. Save your party, and in doing so, help save the country. Or if you're not up for it, I welcome you to come to us. We have moderate groups and groups that are to the right within the party. Unless you are a hardcore Republican, you should be able to find a proper fit in the party.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My final Prediction
Handel 52%
Ossoff 48%