Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015
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  Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015
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Author Topic: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015  (Read 167538 times)
MalaspinaGold
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« on: December 01, 2014, 07:25:49 PM »
« edited: December 04, 2014, 03:20:44 PM by MalaspinaGold »

Yair Lapid rejected Bibi's demands; the election date to be announced in a couple days.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/1.629512?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Reasons include the VAT, defense budget, and the nation-state bill
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
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« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2014, 08:49:38 PM »

Is there any chance of Bibi actually losing? What's the most viable alternative?
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #2 on: December 01, 2014, 09:12:31 PM »

Lapid and Livni are both damaged goods. Hnv1 thinks a comeback by labor is in the cards, but I'm skeptical. The polls currently only show Bennett able to actually beat Bibi in the tallies; but he wouldn't be able to set up a coalition. Most likely we'll see another Bibi led government IMO.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #3 on: December 01, 2014, 09:54:44 PM »

Bibi is sure to win. He wouldn't be calling an election otherwise.

The only real question is whether Bibi's preferred coalition (Likud, Jewish Home, Shas, UTJ) will win a strong majority, if he will be at the mercy of Kahlon and Liberman, or if he will have to assemble an even more unwieldy government.

Labour and Yesh Atid will compete to be the strongest force on, for lack of a better term, the left but neither has a shot at winning.

I don't think Yesh Atid is a spent force although it deserves to be.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #4 on: December 01, 2014, 09:58:43 PM »

An interesting question: will partisan infighting within Shas cause UTJ to become the larger of the two Haredi parties for the first time since... ever?
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politicus
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« Reply #5 on: December 01, 2014, 10:13:55 PM »

Have they announced a date yet?
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #6 on: December 01, 2014, 10:29:04 PM »

Not yet, they're supposed to do it soon though.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #7 on: December 02, 2014, 03:20:52 AM »

Opened a thread before the Knesset voted to dissolve?! you doomes us with another right victory.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #8 on: December 02, 2014, 02:01:40 PM »

It's pretty much official now... Livni and Lapid were dismissed as ministers today, and Bibi openly announced new elections. The vote to dissolve will be a formality.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #9 on: December 02, 2014, 03:54:40 PM »

Is there any chance off an right-wing non ortodox guvernemnt i.e. Likud with Bayit Yehudi, Yisrael Beitenu and the New Kachlon Party or even Yesh Atid?!
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Hnv1
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« Reply #10 on: December 02, 2014, 04:30:49 PM »

Is there any chance off an right-wing non ortodox guvernemnt i.e. Likud with Bayit Yehudi, Yisrael Beitenu and the New Kachlon Party or even Yesh Atid?!

Yes, depends on the results. A weak Likud like last time arond will tie Bibi's hands to a coalition he again doesn't want. a strong Likud plus strong JH result will get us the traditional right wing-orthodox government. Liberman as always is a wildcard

Former minister (and Labour leader) Peretz said he wants Labour, YA, Livni, Kadima and maybe even Meretz to unite around Herzog (who got 19% in PM-fit compared to Bibi's 31%). Unlikely...but considering this election will be more or less a referendum on Bibi himself we might see very interesting combination with their sole aim to kick him out.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #11 on: December 02, 2014, 04:46:55 PM »

Could someone provide a brief rundown of the major parties/their ideologies/demographics?

I don't really get Israeli politics.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #12 on: December 02, 2014, 06:29:32 PM »

This is by no means exhaustive, and I ask the native Israelis to correct anything I may have gotten wrong.

The parties:
Likud: traditional right wing party, both on economic and diplomatic issues. Tends to be expedient on religious issues, but Bibi is more comfortable relying on the Ultra-orthdox

Yesh Atid: The big party that came out of the last election, headed by former news anchor Yair Lapid: it's basically moderate hero on everything, except they're pitted against the Ultra-Orthodox. They're like the Israeli version of the Lib Dems.

Labor: The old left party, has been steadily losing support since Rabin; they tend to be economically center-left and diplomatically centrist, though current leader Herzog is an exception to that rule, he tends to be more third way in terms of economics.

Yisrael Beitenu: Headed by Avigdor Lieberman, this was traditionally a party of the Russian immigrants, but Lieberman has been trying to appeal to right-wingers dissatisfied with Bibi. Economically right wing yet at the same time secularist. Superficially similar to Bennett and Jewish Home, but the racism tends to come almost exclusively from nationalism, rather than the mixture of nationalism and religious messianism characterizing Jewish Home.

Jewish Home: The party of the settlers and the Religious Zionists. Openly annexationist. Probably the only party in the coalition that will come out a winner in the polls.

Shas: The Haredi/Ultra-Orthodox party for the Sephardim and Mizrachim. Not right-wing economically but has drifted to the right on diplomacy/peace/the Arab population, with the rise of Eli Yishai. Used to be very powerful but has been on the decline since Ovadia Yosef died, and many non Haredi sephardim that typically vote for Shas have been peeling away to join other parties on the center and right.

United Torah Judaism: The Ashkenazi Haredi party, formed by the union of Lithuanian Degel haTorah and Hasidic Agudat Yisrael. From what I know tends to be more left-wing on most issues compared to Shas, except for religious issues where it is more right wing.

Meretz: The traditional Zionist left, staunchly pro-peace, economically left wing, secular, and anti-Bibi. Tends to be white, Ashkenazi and well-off.

Hatnuah: Livni's latest vehicle, supposed to be the centrist peace party. Livni may or may not decide to go into retirement this year, as her party may well get slaughtered.

Moshe Kachlon's party: Kachlon was a former Sephardi Likud member and at one time Minister of Communications, during which time he got everyone's love for lowering the cell phone bill. Now he wants to run as an economically "left-wing" candidate (even though he's not actually left-wing on anything). Think of him as a poor man's Lapid; I'm fairly sure he's going to siphon a lot of Shas's nonharedi voters (and even some Haredi ones).

Hadash: The Israeli commies; most of their support comes from well-educated and middle-class Arabs in Jewish and larger Arab towns. (Umm al Fahm, Haifa, etc.)

UAL-Taal: This is a joint list of the Islamist UAL and Ahmed Tibi's secular Taal party. This party gets the overwhelming support of the Bedouin, as well as Arabs in the smaller towns).

Balad: The Arab-Nationalist party. Recently it has been the weakest of the three parties, as well as the most controversial one, as a result of MK Haneen Zoabi. There is a high possibility that they merge with UAL-Taal as a result of the raising of the electoral bar.

In my opinion the only way to describe the Israeli political spectrum is to use three dimensions: diplomacy/peace, economics, and religious issues. And even then the lines frequently blur, for example: just recently Livni and the Shas reached a deal to appoint a mix of reformist and traditional Haredi Rabbis in order to sink Religious Zionist Bennett's preferences. Lieberman is shrewd enough to have cultivated relationships with many center parties. And Meretz and UTJ collaborated on an alternative budget.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #13 on: December 02, 2014, 06:37:42 PM »

United Arab List also includes the Arab Democratic Party of Taleb el-Sana, which actually broke away from Labor, it's specifically a Bedouin party and that's part of why they get so many Bedouin votes. Although the ADP, originally the main party in UAL, has lost a lot of clout in recent years, obviously from el-Sana getting bumped down on the party list and losing his seat in the Knesset.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #14 on: December 02, 2014, 06:40:26 PM »
« Edited: December 05, 2014, 04:52:47 PM by Famous Mortimer »

and Kahlon's party is probably a ploy to trick working class people into voting for a Likud led coalition. Netanyahu tried to do a similar thing before with a party called Social Justice, which never got off the ground.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #15 on: December 02, 2014, 06:50:53 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2014, 07:05:56 PM by MalaspinaGold »

Considering that el-Sana was replaced with another Bedouin (Taleb abu-Arar), do you think this will change who the Bedouin vote for?

Also,  how do people think the Arab parties will regroup? I've heard the possibility that Balad and UAL will unite, and Taal will break off to join Hadash and thus even it out.

In other news, the date of dissolution is tomorrow. Elections are supposed to be in mid to late March. Jewish Home has scheduled their primaries for January 5th, and I've heard there's some friction between Bennett and the Tekuma faction of the party (possible breakup?)

Also, who is most likely to vote for a Kachlon party? If it's Likudniks, that hurts Bibi, and if it's disaffected Shas voters it doesn't help much either, as Shas will most likely be in Bibi's coalition next time around. Best case scenario for him would be disaffected Lapid voters move to Kachlon in large numbers, but will Kachlon necessarily appeal to middle-class, secular Lapid-types? Also, is there any truth that Ariel Attias and Adina Bar-Shalom may link up with him?
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danny
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« Reply #16 on: December 02, 2014, 07:10:24 PM »

and Kahlon's party is probably a plow to trick working class people into voting for a Likud led coalition. Netanyahu tried to do a similar thing before with a party called Social Justice, which never got off the ground.

Kachlon isn't a plot and it would be a really stupid plan if he were, since right wing parties already get a big majority of working class voters. Social Justice had nothing to do with Bibi, it was just a personal creation of Arkadi Gaydmak with no ideology, other than being a tool of his, but was abandoned when Gaydmak failed badly in the Jerusalem local election.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #17 on: December 02, 2014, 07:13:42 PM »

There was some talk of ADP running on their own last time but they ended up rejoining less than 48 hours before the registration deadline. I don't think there's any chance this time though because of the raising of the threshold.

As for Balad, I think they will just boycott the election. They're so radical at this point, even if they could continue to evade a ban, it just doesn't make sense for them to participate in elections run by a state they so openly despise. If they do team up with UAL, I suspect it will be an unofficial endorsement or maybe no endorsement and radical Arab voters going to UAL just because it's the next logical choice for them.

Hadn't heard that about Ta'al but it makes sense. Ahmad Tibi, the founder of Ta'al, got his start as Yasser Arafat's adviser on Israeli Arab affairs. Hadah-Ta'al would basically be a pro-Palestinian Authority/State of Palestine bloc and UAL(-Balad) would be a pro-Hamas bloc.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #18 on: December 02, 2014, 07:20:30 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2014, 07:55:17 PM by Famous Mortimer »

and Kahlon's party is probably a plow to trick working class people into voting for a Likud led coalition. Netanyahu tried to do a similar thing before with a party called Social Justice, which never got off the ground.

Kachlon isn't a plot and it would be a really stupid plan if he were, since right wing parties already get a big majority of working class voters. Social Justice had nothing to do with Bibi, it was just a personal creation of Arkadi Gaydmak with no ideology, other than being a tool of his, but was abandoned when Gaydmak failed badly in the Jerusalem local election.

Basically every English language article about Social Justice openly acknowledged it was a trick to get left-wing voters to vote for Netanyahu, although in slightly nice words.

As for Kahlon, there's clearly some personal interest there, he wants to increase his standing. I think he's basically still pro-Likud and not totally hostile to Netanyahu though, his endorsement of Netanyahu before the last election proved that, he could have just sat that election out totally.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #19 on: December 02, 2014, 07:32:50 PM »

So Bibi is Israel's Andrew Cuomo

Here's the article about the possible merger: http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/.premium-1.629637

I wouldn't describe UAL/Balad as "pro-Hamas". Even Balad, who has the more extreme rhetoric, is closer to someone like Marwan Barghouti than Hamas.  And the UAL knows they're not getting a caliphate.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #20 on: December 02, 2014, 08:00:27 PM »

I think calling Balad pro-Hamas is perfectly fair. They're certainly pro-Hezbollah and pro-Assad so I don't know why you consider that such a jump. Regardless, they're at the very least pro-suicide bombing (as Barhgouti is). Also, UAL have spoken of a caliphate before. Whether they're disconnected from reality enough to think it's realistic is another question, although even if they weren't, it wouldn't make me feel much better.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #21 on: December 02, 2014, 08:10:00 PM »

Sweet Yahew. I hate the Haaretz paywall.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #22 on: December 02, 2014, 08:35:33 PM »

What haaretz paywall?
http://uncommonprogrammer.blogspot.com/2013/05/haaretz-cracked-goodbye-paywall-its-now.html

Considering that Hamas opposes Assad, I'd say Balad supporting Assad makes them less Hamas-friendly.

Also, UAL supports a two-state solution, which is very un-Hamaslike.

This was an interesting article not that long ago interviewing the Balad MKs:

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/11/balad-haneen-zoabi-basel-ghattas-jamal-zahalka-balad.html
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #23 on: December 03, 2014, 03:04:26 AM »

Here are some new numbers out:
Channel 2/Midgam
22 Likud
17 Bayit Yehudi
13 Labor
11 Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad
10 Yisrael Beitenu
10 New Kachlon Party
9 Yesh Atid
9 Shas
8 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
7 Meretz
4 Hatnua

Teleseker/Walla:
23 Likud
17 Bayit Yehudi
12 Labor
12 Yisrael Beitenu
11 Yesh Atid
10 New Kachlon Party
8 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
7 Shas
5 Meretz
5 Hatnuah
5 Ra’am-Ta’al
3 Hadash

Can anyone explain the collapse in support for Meretz for me please?
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Hnv1
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« Reply #24 on: December 03, 2014, 08:01:54 AM »

and Kahlon's party is probably a plow to trick working class people into voting for a Likud led coalition. Netanyahu tried to do a similar thing before with a party called Social Justice, which never got off the ground.

Kachlon isn't a plot and it would be a really stupid plan if he were, since right wing parties already get a big majority of working class voters. Social Justice had nothing to do with Bibi, it was just a personal creation of Arkadi Gaydmak with no ideology, other than being a tool of his, but was abandoned when Gaydmak failed badly in the Jerusalem local election.
I think he's talking about a small 'social justice' party that ran in 2013, kinda like how Mozes tried running a small russian party to steal votes from Bibi and Liberman.

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Kachlon+ the Israeli voter is not quite sure what's the shape of things to come. I think is we grow closer Meretz will hit 8-9 in polling but the 12 we saw earlier in polling will not be duplicated.

Some russian political reporter for Makor Rishon is trying to run in the JH. I would pay attention because there's a chunk of russian who grew closer to reigion and like Bennet and I think most of his surge will come from Liberman and Shas voters

Arab radio broadcaster zoher bahalul annunced he trying to secure a spot at Meretz (will join former Haaretz columnist Avirama Golan and former Major General Eyal Ben Reuven). Though by Inside information I gathered there might be a problem because Meretz are supposed to elect a new party convention at the end of this month (same body that selects the chairman and party list) and there might be a rpoblem with that now.
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