Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014)

[YL]

"Leaks" and rumoured results before the polls close (and indeed for some time afterwards) are highly unlikely to be genuine.

[YL]

Interesting note that IPSOS-MORI have tweeted that if turnout actually breaches 80% then their polls probably won't be valid.

Have they?  I can't see anything of the sort on https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI (I can find other people on Twitter claiming that they have said this, but no links to the actual statement or anything, which makes me suspicious).

[YL]

54-46 for no in Clackmannanshire.
No seems to be on track for a big win.

Not a big one. Clackmannanshire was a likely toss-up, so if that result is anything to go by it could be 54-46.

Really? The first page had this has the highest Yes rating on the time release chart. That could be inaccurate, but if you are knowledgeable I'll trust you. It seemed lean Yes at minimum to me.

That chart being wrong wouldn't surprise me.  It's not as if there was any particularly useful data to base it on.

(But I do expect No to win now.)

[YL]

Highest turnouts seem to be in the better off Glasgow suburbs: East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire.

[YL]

Orkney: Yes 4883 No 10004

[YL]

Orkney had the highest No vote in 1997, on both questions.

[YL]

Eilean Siar: Yes 9195 No 10544

My very very limited knowledge of Gaelic was enough to know that it was 9000 and something and 10000 and something

[YL]

I would have to warn against treating survey subsamples as gospel truth, particularly when said samples are rather small.

The sample size for the 16-17 age group in the Ashcroft poll is 14.

[YL]

Falkirk council has results by counting area (based on Scottish Parliament consituencies) with the same disclaimer about postal votes as the Lanarkshires.

Falkirk East: No 54.5%, Yes 45.4%
Falkirk West: No 52.3%, Yes 47.6%
(both add to 99.9%, so I think they're based on totals including rejected ballots)

OTOH Fife council's website says "Please note that on instruction from the Chief Counting Officer we only have one Fife total available, we don't have a breakdown of results by ward or constituency."

Coatbridge   0.527752422   Labour

...

Airdrie et al.   0.482329843   SNP

Ding Ding Ding

... and given the thing about postal votes being spread around and that part of Airdrie was included with Coatbridge, the actual difference between the two towns was probably bigger than that.