I'm really surprised Democrats failed so much at recruiting in AZ-02. The race was decided by literally hundreds of votes in both 2012 and 2014. Did McSally just scare people off with her fundraising or did Democrats just write this off for some reason? Because a district that competitive (closest House race of 2014) should not have had such an utter recruitment failure.
Yeah Democrats aren't going to beat McSally - They probably weren't going to do it with Heinz, either.
Heinz did win the primary. He was a bad fundraiser, bad fit, generally not a good candidate, he didn't have an active campaign, McSally crushed him with attack ads, etc.
If McSally goes down, it will be to someone like Victoria Steele (Heinz's primary opponent, lost it by 5 points).