2009 State and European Parliament Elections in Austria

[Tender Branson]

Any results for Branau-am-Inn yet?

District of Braunau now fully counted:

ÖVP: 48.9% (+1)
SPÖ: 21.9% (-13)
FPÖ: 18.4% (+8)
Greens: 6.8% (nc)
BZÖ: 3.2% (+3)

The City of Braunau only:

ÖVP: 34.8% (+4)
SPÖ: 28.5% (-19)
FPÖ: 19.7% (+9)
Greens: 11.6% (+1)
BZÖ: 4.8% (+5)

[Tender Branson]

Also, the result in Hallstatt:

SPÖ: 46.8% (-8%)
ÖVP: 32.3% (+4%)
Greens: 11.8% (+3%)
FPÖ: 4.6% (-1%) !!!
BZÖ: 2.9% (+3%)

[Tender Branson]

Final Upper Austria Election Result (pending the remaining postal votes):

ÖVP: 400.366 votes (46.76%, +3.34%)
SPÖ: 213.553 votes (24.94%, -13.39%)
FPÖ: 130.937 votes (15.29%, +6.89%)
Greens: 78.569 votes (9.18%, +0.12%)
BZÖ: 24.268 votes (2.83%, +2.83%)
KPÖ: 4.812 votes (0.56%, -0.22%)
DC: 3.721 votes (0.43%, +0.43%)

Eligible voters: 1.086.310
Total votes: 872.794
Valid votes: 856.226
Turnout: 80.34% (+1.69%)

Some postal votes are outstanding and they are coming in in the next week. They always favor ÖVP and Greens, therefore ÖVP will get to 47%, the Greens to 9.5% and the FPÖ down to 15%. Turnout will increase to 81%, once the postal votes are counted.

[Tender Branson]

First glimpse from Exit Poll numbers:

Under-30-year-olds: 41% ÖVP, 29% FPÖ, 15% Green, 12% SPÖ

30-59-year-olds: 51% ÖVP, 22% SPÖ, 11% Greens, 11% FPÖ

60+ voters: 47% SPÖ, 36% ÖVP, 11% FPÖ

Blue-collar-workers: 35% ÖVP, 34% SPÖ, 26% FPÖ, 5% Greens

White-collar-employees: 49% ÖVP, 15% Greens, 15% SPÖ, 14% FPÖ

Women: 47% ÖVP, 25% SPÖ, 14% Greens, 9% FPÖ

Men: 43% ÖVP, 27% SPÖ, 21% FPÖ, 6% Greens

What this means: The SPÖ has a real problem, when they can't even win workers in this traditional industrial state. Also: The young voters are a bit more right-wing than the average (70% vs. 65% in the state).

[Tender Branson]

A few maps:

Turnout by City:



Strongest Party by City:



Biggest Vote Gains by Party and City:



ÖVP Vote Share by City:



SPÖ Vote Share by City:



FPÖ Vote Share by City:



Green Vote Share by City:



BZÖ Vote Share by City:

[Tender Branson]

I have not yet commented on the disastrous result of the Linz-SPÖ, because it came in late yesterday:

The ÖVP won the capital Linz for the first time since WW2, with the SPÖ losing more than 16%.

The final result was:

ÖVP: 35.1% (+6)
SPÖ: 32.7% (-16)
FPÖ: 14.8% (+7)
Greens: 13.4% (nc)
BZÖ: 2.5% (+3)

This must make Vienna Mayor Michael Häupl of the SPÖ very nervous, because he`s up for re-election next year and the SPÖ is on a downward spiral. He also has to defend a really good result from the 2005 elections, when the Vienna SPÖ got 49% of the votes but 55 of 100 city seats. If the Vienna SPÖ crashes to 34-35%, there`s a good chance that FPÖ-leader HC Strache might actually give Häupl a run for his money, because they are polling at 27% there right now. And if Häupl goes down, Austrian Chancellor Faymann is politically dead as well. Because the loss of Socialist Vienna to the FPÖ would be a historic earthquake of unknown dimensions. It's like Artur Davis winning the Governorship in Alabama, just the other way round.

Maybe the Presidential elections in April next year will serve as a bit of a buffer for the SPÖ, because President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) looks safe for re-election right now. Maybe the press will end their negative spin then that is also dragging down the SPÖ. The only problem would be if Gov. Erwin Pröll announces his candidacy and gets the backing of FPÖ and BZÖ in the runnoff, should Fischer not win the first round. If Fischer would lose re-election, it would be another crazy blow for the SPÖ. So the Presidential Election will be make or break for the SPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Latest federal ATV "Austria Trend" poll:

ÖVP: 32%
SPÖ: 28%
FPÖ: 23%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 2%

"The Right": 61%
"The Left": 37%

Another poll where the FPBZÖ beats the SPÖ ... thats bad.

[Hash]

Why is the SPÖ so strong in the southern part of Upper Austria? Old industrial region like that uber-leftie part in Upper Styria?

Also quite amazing that the ÖVP manages to win a landslide in a swing state like Upper Austria.

[Tender Branson]

Why is the SPÖ so strong in the southern part of Upper Austria? Old industrial region like that uber-leftie part in Upper Styria?

Also quite amazing that the ÖVP manages to win a landslide in a swing state like Upper Austria.

The southern region of Upper Austria (Salzkammergut, Traunviertel) is the Florida of Austria. Many lakes, mountains and what's important: old people moving there to retire. And old people vote SPÖ, who provide their retirement money. The region mostly looks like this:



If you go further east, you see the Steyr (historical) industrial region with the city of Steyr and Steyr suburbs. In Steyr, there are many factory workers, because companies like BMW, MAN and a big iron and car parts industry (Steyr-Daimler-Puch AG) is situated there. There's also a big weapons industry there: Steyr-Mannlicher

[Hash]

Old people vote left in Austria? That's weird.

[Tender Branson]

Old people vote left in Austria? That's weird.

Go on top of this page and look at the exit poll (BZÖ was defined as "others") ...

So you get the following numbers for the Left and the Right:

16-29 year olds: 72% Right, 28% Left
30-59 year olds: 66% Right, 34% Left
60+ year olds: 50% Left, 50% Right

[Tender Branson]

BTW, Erich Haider (not related with Jörg), the front runner and party chair of the big loser party SPÖ stepped down today.

[Tender Branson]

Uh-oh, more trouble for the Reds:

First federal News/OGM poll after the Upper Austria SPÖ election debacle:

ÖVP: 34%
SPÖ: 26%
FPÖ: 24%
Greens: 10%
BZÖ: 4%
Others: 2%

Right: 62%
Left: 36%

[Tender Branson]

New federal Ö24/Gallup poll:

ÖVP: 35% (+9)
SPÖ: 27% (-2)
FPÖ: 20% (+2)
Greens: 12% (+2)
BZÖ: 4% (-7)
Others: 2% (-4)

Josef Pröll (ÖVP): 38%
Werner Faymann (SPÖ): 35%

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ crashes even lower, now in danger of being overtaken by the FPÖ.

Latest Market/Standard poll:

[Tender Branson]

New Presidential Poll (ATV Austria Trend):

Heinz Fischer (Inc.-SPÖ): 52%
Erwin Pröll (ÖVP): 23%

It is expected that Fischer, who turns 71 tomorrow, will announce this month whether he'll run again and the ÖVP will follow suit with announcing their candidate.

Should be really interesting to see if Fischer manages to overcome the structural advantage for the Right (about 62-38 now) and defeat Pröll. Every other ÖVP-candidate would probably lose.

[Tender Branson]

Today's run-off day in Upper Austria and the main battle will be in Wels, where FPÖ-callenger Bernhard Wieser is mounting a strong challenge against incumbent Peter Koits of the SPÖ. Wieser is a neonazi-supporting fascist and Koits and his family was attacked with hardcore negative campaigning by the Far Right in the previous weeks.

Wels would be the biggest Austrian city where the FPÖ would have a mayor. The Greens have urged their voters to support Koits to avoid the fascist Wieser taking control of the city. Results are in in about 2 hours.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wels

1st round vote:

Peter Koits (SPÖ): 42.9% (-30.8%)
Bernhard Wieser (FPÖ): 29.2% (+19.3%)
Anna Eisenrauch (ÖVP): 20.1% (+5.6%)
Michael Springer (Greens): 6.4% (+6.4%)
Leo Mikesch (Communists): 1.4% (-0.6%)

Left: 50.7% (-25.0%)
Right: 49.3% (+25.0%)

2009 state election vote in Wels:

ÖVP: 36.3% (+4.2%)
SPÖ: 28.3% (-18.0%)
FPÖ: 21.0% (+10.9%)
Greens: 10.4% (-0.2%)
BZÖ: 3.0% (+3.0%)
KPÖ: 0.7% (-0.2%)
DC: 0.3% (+0.3%)

Right: 60.6% (+18.4%)
Left: 39.4% (-18.4%)

[Tender Branson]

28 of 37 run-off cities counted so far:

ÖVP wins 19, SPÖ 8 and the FPÖ 1.

[Tender Branson]

After 44 of 68 precincts, the results in Wels are as followed:

Koits (SPÖ): 53.82%
Wieser (FPÖ): 46.18%

[Tender Branson]

After 44 51 of 68 precincts, the results in Wels are as followed:

Koits (SPÖ): 53.82% 54.03%
Wieser (FPÖ): 46.18% 45.97%

[Tender Branson]

After 44 51 62 of 68 precincts, the results in Wels are as followed:

Koits (SPÖ): 53.82% 54.03% 53.61%
Wieser (FPÖ): 46.18% 45.97% 46.39%

He has definitely won. Great.

[Tender Branson]

Final Result in Wels:

Dr. Peter Koits (SPÖ): 53.53%
Dr. Bernhard Wieser (FPÖ): 46.47%

All 37 run-offs counted:

ÖVP wins 23 cities, SPÖ 13 and the FPÖ 1.

That means the ÖVP now has 330 mayors in Upper Austria, the SPÖ 99, the FPÖ 9, the BZÖ 2 and there are 4 Independents.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, quite a relief that. Demand to see list of winning party in other cities!

[Хahar 🤔]

Map?

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, quite a relief that. Demand to see list of winning party in other cities!

http://wahl.land-oberoesterreich.gv.at/whlp/WHLPBuergermeister.jsp?newPath=J&wahlNameKurz=B09

Map?

The 37 run-off cities are missing, but will soon be included I guess.