2009 State and European Parliament Elections in Austria (user search)
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  2009 State and European Parliament Elections in Austria (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2009 State and European Parliament Elections in Austria  (Read 106974 times)
Kevinstat
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« on: March 06, 2009, 11:52:33 PM »

What are the chances of any changes to the final partisan tally of Sunday's provincial elections in Carinthia (where Tender said the remaining postal votes would be counted this coming Monday)?  In Salzburg?

What seat allocation method does each states use among those parties meeting the 5% threshold?  I know it's 5% in Carinthia, but what about Salzburg and all the other states?
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2009, 01:11:39 PM »
« Edited: March 07, 2009, 01:25:27 PM by Kevinstat »

Outside Styria, does a party have to obtain the 4% or 5% quota even to get a mandate seat (not that that would matter in most cases)?  I would think not as the gultige stimmen pro wahlkrs. upon which the wahlzahl (electoral district quota) seemed to be based equaled the sum of all the parties' votes in each electoral district.  If the votes of all parties are going to count in the denominator for an electoral district mandate, one would think all parties would be elligible for such a mandate regardless of their statewide performance.  The ratio of the gultige to the wahlzahl equaled the mandate pro wahlkrs. which would seem to indicate the Hare quota rather than the Hagenbach-Bischoff quota being used, although I guess that isn't inconsistent with the Hagenbach-Bischoff method and actually makes more sense if the aim is statewide proportionality after proportionality-enhancing seats are added (higher quota in the first tier = less chance of overhang mandates).

In Styria and outside of Styria if no party not meeting the statewide threshold gets a mandate in any electoral district, does the party composition always (or almost always) match that of land-wide D'Hondt among those parties meeting the threshold?  I noticed no non-integer reststimmen on your link, so perhaps if a party or parties were within a vote or two of gaining/losing a seat from/to a larger party or parties under D'Hondt (a vote for a party "going for" a smaller number of seats would count more than a vote for a party going for a larger number of seats), the composition of the two or more parties' votes in each district could make a difference.  Or are fractional values calculated for the reststimmen, just not shown on your link?  If the end statewide partisan tally in Carinthia will be that of pure D'Hondt among those parties getting 5% or more of the statewide vote, then I could calculate what would need to happen with the outstanding postal votes in order for any seats to change hands.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2009, 09:38:25 PM »

What will the likely government in Carinthia be?  Or has it already been determined?  A 19-17 majority seems too narrow for an SPÖ-ÖVP-Greens coalition, so I'd imagine there would be either a two party coalition including the BZÖ (and not including the Greens, probably BZÖ-ÖVP) or a BZÖ minority government.  I'm not sure if there's any history for minority governments (as opposed to single-party majority governments or majority coalition governments) in Austria or its states, however.  There may be a lot.  I just don't know.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #3 on: May 31, 2009, 08:38:34 PM »
« Edited: May 31, 2009, 08:40:06 PM by Kevinstat »

New poll for the September 20 Vorarlberg State Elections:

ÖVP: 47% (-8 compared with '04 elections)
FPÖ: 17% (+4)
SPÖ: 14% (-3)
Greens: 12% (+2)
BZÖ: 5% (+5)
Others: 5% (nc)

That means that the current ÖVP/FPÖ coalition in the westernmost Austrian state will continue.

Why did the ÖVP need a coalition partner in Voralburg if they won 55% of the vote in the last state election?  Did they fail to win a majority of seats (or was their majority narrower than their popular vote majority and narrow enough that a coalition partner was necessary for the government to have a reasonable hope of completing its term)?  Or did the coalition only after defections from the ÖVP brought them either under a majority or to a very narrow majority?
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2009, 08:39:32 PM »

Pretty impressive, considering that Austria is now 61-36 center-right ...

Please don't say that. The ÖVP is the only center-right party.

Perhaps "right of center" should be used instead of center-right.  Or perhaps "right" would cover both center-right and far right.
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