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Biden 62%
Trump 15%
Not sure/don’t know 11%
Would not vote 11%
Prefer not to say 2%

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5af32ec112b13feeae3bb55e/t/6642421bb4585b1a74e2d60f/1715618332416/2024BVP_Wave1__SelectToplines.pdf

Note - this is of *adults* from what I can tell, and not RV or LV.

If you remove the don't know, would not vote, and prefer not to say, it comes out to Biden 80 - Trump 20.

But he didn't actually testify in them, did he?  Or am I misremembering?

I believe he testified in one of the Carroll trials and he tried to testify in the civil fraud trial (just started ranting from his desk) and the judge cut him off after a couple minutes because he wasn't staying in the parameters he was allowed to testify about.

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

     While I do agree Trump doesn't win by 6, I'll just point out that this is the same mindset Atlas brought to the table in 2014. We all know how that went.

We've all been wrong over time. And I honestly would be more worried if this poll was out in late September or into October (assuming other polls were as they are, but even then this one is an outlier).

     Sure, having two (or more) sides in a factual dispute means someone has to be wrong. I bring it up to caution that maybe we should be more circumspect than saying "obvious junk is obvious", because I heard that once before when the obvious junk actually turned out to be fairly accurate.

I hope that people who agree that this is a "great move" will reward Biden for it by giving them their vote in November. He apparently is in desperate need of more votes.

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

In mid April 2020, Harvard Harris showed Biden getting 53 to Trump's 47. In mid May 2020 they also showed Biden up 53-47. Quite literally the reverse of what Harvard Harris shows now. I am not sure what's so unbelievable about Trump winning the popular vote. It's not inconceivable at this point.

If he wins the popular vote, certainly won't be by six. Maybe one or one and a half. Not even Dubya could edge out a three point win in 2004.

And Bush was up by high single digits as late as September as well but then the race became competitive again after he faceplanted at the debates.

Well the question could be whether Bush was ever gonna win by high single digits to begin with and if the debates just were there to provide democrats with a reason for why they opposed Bush to begin with.

I enjoyed it. Terry Crews is welcome on my TV anytime.

This  is a Mark Penn pollster poll and he is founder of No Labels Party we Ds aren't gonna be listening to him

He can try fearmongering but the horse has already bolted. Trump probably has a third of black men under 50.

Nope, any poll that says that is complete bullsh*t.

Anyway, even if that were true, that's irrelevant. Some Black people can be self-hating (and obviously make stupid decisions).

It's a completely understandable trend. Biden is unpopular across all demographics, especially relative to 2020. The economy was great under Trump and he did a great job with branding / messaging for things like HBCU funding, black unemployment and the First Step Act.

He should’ve just kept his mouth shut on it

[Lawyer preparation suggests Trump won’t testify in New York trial]

Lawyer preparation suggests Trump won’t testify in New York trial
Awaiting final word from the mercurial defendant, the judge is proceeding as if Trump will not take the stand.

After brashly declaring he wanted to testify in his criminal trial, it appears increasingly unlikely that Donald Trump will do so, as the jury seems poised to hear closing arguments next week.

Defendants rarely testify in their own defense, because their lawyers advise them that the risks of doing so, particularly when it comes to being questioned by prosecutors under oath, are simply too great.

Even so, defense attorneys often try to hold out until the last possible minute to say whether their client will testify, hoping to keep prosecutors guessing.

...

Four people close to the former president said next week’s plan does not include him testifying, and they expect the jury to start deliberating later in the week. Trump is famously mercurial and could always demand to testify, some of these people said, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal deliberations. Todd Blanche, a lawyer for Trump, declined to comment.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/18/trump-trial-testifying/


Not a surprise, but it's still his decision to make and he insisted on testifying in 2 recent civil trials.

But he didn't actually testify in them, did he?  Or am I misremembering?