Australia - 7 September 2013

[minionofmidas]

Your friendly neighbourhood dictator would like it to be known that he does, indeed, read this thread.

Clearly the solution to this conundrum is to stop reading it.

[minionofmidas]

So... why is that?

Just due to the infighting, to the government seeming so very weak? That can't be all of it, surely.

[minionofmidas]

Do any of you think that a defeat of the magnitude we are seeing for the Labor Party at the federal level will translate into continuing Liberal victories in future state elections after this September, like in South Australia for instance?   

Winning a huge victory without being actually popular is more likely to spell 'disaster' for the next few lesser-order elections. Though if the first such elections are in the remaining Labor-held states, maybe not.

[minionofmidas]

So what are the odds Kevin Rudd wins narrowly wins the general election, then falls to a leadership challenge within six months?

[minionofmidas]

Why would anyone want to hear the 'thoughts' of that disgusting racist thug? The sooner he dies the better.

Which one?

I agree either way, of course.

[minionofmidas]

Like for example, how are the ALP holding their own in the state-wide polling in Queensland, but are really struggling in the individual seat polling? Labor doing better in marginals rather than safe seats doesn't tell the full story here.....

Wouldn't it be the other way round, that Labor is doing better in safe seats than marginals?

I'm coming to the conclusion that Labor will be about the same in the nation as a whole excluding Sydney and Tasmania, where they'll be absolutely massacred. Maybe a point or two lost in SA as well, but no seats.

Isn't polling showing a rather large swing in SA, a mid-size one in Queensland (concentrated in Brisbane; in rural areas/the north of the state it seems they may actually gain due to the KAP's preferences), enough to get 3 seats in Victoria, with only WA holding steady? That's how I'm interpreting this...

Yes it should. Thank you Vosem.

The problem with that theory Vosem, is that in the 29 seats in QLD, the ALP only hold 8 of them... and their biggest margin is Griffith with 8.5%. There aren't enough 'safe-seats' for that explanation to hold water

Doing better in the Liberals' safe seats then?

[minionofmidas]

So, the ABC has that infamous "Vote Compass" that the CBC keeps pushing on us here?

At least I'm used to it. I got the Greens. No surprise.

I got the Greens as well, with Labor as a close second.

Green...74%
Labor...67%
L/NP....41%

Almost the same here, 77-68-40. Had to answer "don't know" in the sense of "don't know the current Australian legal situation" a couple of times.

[minionofmidas]

Insane as it sounds, it's the latter

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[minionofmidas]

Every genuinely neutral outisde observer would think we're mad if we elect the Coalition, right?

If you elect the Coalition or Labor, yes.

[minionofmidas]

I hope this is geoblocked, because it is the most uncomfortable 31 minutes in history:

http://www.abc.net.au/iview/#/view/42132

Be comforted, it is.

[minionofmidas]

I certainly can deny that.

[minionofmidas]

Speaking of former Gillardites, PVO demolishes their claim that things were improving till Rudd started destabilizing again. Also, Labor could be without a permanent leader for weeks. Don't think that's a huge deal myself.

Indeed, I fail to see much of a difference compared to the real tl.

(Sorry. This bizarre election - brought to you courtesy of the Australian electoral system which makes it really hard to punish a major party if the opposition also at least kind of sucks - is bringing out the worst in me.)

[minionofmidas]

Teddy's predicting a 97-50-3 result.

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It was 96 years ago, but a Labor shutout in WA has once happened before.
Also once a Labor clean sweep, in 1943.

Somewhat surprisingly, the same cannot be said of South Australia, which has never seen a clean sweep (nor have Vic, NSW and Qld).

[minionofmidas]

Had to try my hand at this:



An Australian Cartogram! (2010 map)

Thanks to Australia's highly cartogram-resistant geography, I think it's pretty much impossible to make a very nice-looking map. I eventually opted to simply remove a large potion of Australia's interior, enabling me to mostly preserve the coastline.

So many of Australia's seats border the ocean, I was forced to push a few inland, but I did my best to only choose ones that were at least primarily inland.

Very nice. Maybe we should just change White Australia's borders to reflect your map.