Is Wisconsin the bellweather for 2004?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I'll go out on limb and claim that the winner of WI will be the winner of the election.  

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Maybe a definition of bellweather would help.  I'm not the one to give it, as I see two conflicting ideas of what one may or may not be.

My definition for bellweather is having the sum of the enviroment of the election boiled into one state, so that the direction of that one state is the tipping point for both sides.

Basically, I beieve if Kerry wins WI, he will also win PA, IA, and flip NH.  That brings Bush's EV total down to 274, and if Kerry wins WI, chances are he will also flips one of the following: NV, AR, or CO.

But, if Bush flips WI, then he probably maintains everything from 2000 except NH and can offord a surprse loss of either NV, AR, or CO...thus I don't see how Kerry wins the election if he loses WI.

I think WI is a must win for both Bush and Kerry.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I think Bush could pull it off

I don't think any of those scenarios are likely.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I'm backing Philip on this one. This map is very plausible.

Although Bush is polling stronger in OH than FL, OH will swing back to Kerry much faster than FL - Bush has a much stronger base of support in FL than in OH.

Kerry will win OH before he wins FL.

Florida is Bush Country in 2004.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Uh...



He's up in the polls in Wisconsin, Maine CD 2, and Iowa. Consider the bounds stretched.

Isn't this still a victory for Bush?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I may be confused over what exactly Philip is arguing....My argument is that WI is a must win for both sides and is therefore the bellweather.