2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[heatcharger]

Why is Wexton the top recruit anyway?

She simply has the highest name ID for any Democrat in the district considering she represents a large swath of Loudoun and some parts of Fairfax. Outside of her and Kathleen Murphy, the State House rep in the district Comstock used to represent, the Democratic bench is kinda weak here.

Comstock is also more cunning than you'd imagine, and Wexton is easily the best campaigner of the bunch to counter her.

[heatcharger]

VA-5: Roger Dean Huffstetler announces a run

Don't know much about this guy other than that he's a Marine and a Iraq War vet from Charlottesville, and that he has 72.9k followers on Twitter already.

I'm just happy to see some more Gen X/Millennial Democrats getting into the ring finally.

[heatcharger]

VA-10 (Comstock, R): Dorothy McAuliffe (D), wife of Gov. Terry McAuliffe, is weighing a run.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/dorothy-mcauliffe-wife-of-va-governor-is-testing-the-waters-for-a-congressional-run/2017/04/25/7fdf9ac4-2920-11e7-be51-b3fc6ff7faee_story.html?tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.a91581534ca5

I highly doubt it, and she wouldn't beat Wexton in a primary or in a convention.

[heatcharger]

Quinnipiac poll:

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Democratic Party 51% (-3)
Republican Party 39% (+2)

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Democratic Party 52%
Republican Party 39%

[heatcharger]

PPP poll:

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Democrat 50% (+1)
Republican 40% (+2)

[heatcharger]

Fox News (6/25-6/27):

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47% Democratic Candidate
41% Republican Candidate

[heatcharger]

Garin-Hart-Yang for Priorities USA and Senate Majority PAC (June 23-27)
2018 Senate battleground states only
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/30/15900564/health-bill-politics-midterms

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 35%

Numbers are after hearing criticism of the Republican Health Care plan. Generic ballot before being exposed to this info is 48%-38% in favor of Dems.

Those are the real numbers. The bill has not actually passed yet, and voters do not actually think long-term.

[heatcharger]

PPP poll:

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Democrat 50%
Republican 40%

[heatcharger]

Any bet on what Quinnipiac will show on GCB? I'll guess D+15 in the Senate and D+12 in the House.

Reminder that senate Democrats won the GCB in 2012 by 12 points.

+14 for both.

[heatcharger]

Do you guys think this thread should stay stickied?  It's worth having a megathread for generic polls but I'm not so sure anymore if it needs to stay at the top, or perhaps it could be re-stickied closer to election time next year.

?

If you're looking to clean up the sticky section, I think a good idea might be to sticky a catch-all thread that simply acts as a host to threads about 2018 as a whole. That includes this GCB thread, the fundraising thread, the recruitment thread, etc. The special election threads should also only be stickied when there is an actual special election in the near future. It's your call though.

[heatcharger]

It would essentially be ceding Florida outright. But they're probably seeing numbers internally that we're not.

That and, it would be nice to avoid an ungodly spending war with Rick Scott, which would free up time, money, and effort for other downballot races in Florida. Curbelo needs to be made DOA and Diaz-Balart should probably be given a serious opponent in this environment.

[heatcharger]

CNN generic ballot:

Democratic 56%
Republican 38%

[heatcharger]

Democrats 50.1%
Republicans 37.3%

I'd bet a thousand dollars they're below 48 by the 10th of January due to Tax Reform Bump.

I'm absolutely willing to take this wager. Pollsters will slow down polling during Christmas/New Year's anyway. Do you have Venmo?